There are many eve-of-the-offensive conversations I would love to have been a fly on the wall for. Inside the Trojan horse, say, with that Ancient Greek SAS unit bantering the day away, before busting out for their daring small-hours raid. Or inside the Jaguar marketing department, on the night before their new rebrand, as these crack experiential troops prepared to release this week’s new ad on an unsuspecting luxury car market. Picture the champagne corks popping as the socials are timed to post the video at the appointed hour. “I hope the pre-order guys are ready for an onslaught – because we’ve got eight capital-D diverse models in category-five tulle busting out of a pink-planet lift wielding a hammer – and precisely NO cars! Let’s make some sales history!”

Anyhow. Arguably it’s gone slightly worse than the wooden horse, which, when you think about it, was one of the most successful high performance vehicles in history/mythology. Sure, it was oversized, over-reliant on heritage materials, and probably took corners like a supertanker – and yet, I defy you not to take your hat off. No one said urban warfare couldn’t be quirky and design-led.

Back in the present day, meanwhile, marketing folklore is already building up around the Jaguar campaign, which made its debut this week to reactions ranging from vocal bemusement to vocal derision. As far as I can make out, the best this ad’s defenders can come up with is that “the internet is talking about it”, which these days feels a bit like that South Park episode where some gnomes devise a business plan that runs: 1. Collect underpants. 2.? 3. Profit.

Not that there aren’t various people saying obdurately that they completely love it, even though it’s obviously tired and boring and about as “brave” as “using your platform” at the Oscars. But the one thing we can be absolutely sure of is: not a single one of those defenders will be buying a single one of these cars. And – regrettable newsflash – selling cars does remain the core mission of a car company. In fact, hilariously, there aren’t even any cars to buy for a while, because Jaguar will now halt output entirely for at least a year, with three new EVs not due for sale till 2026. Those will cost almost double what a current Jag does, with the firm claiming this ad announces its intentions to reach younger, richer people that it idealises as “cash-rich, time-poor”. Hence this “breaking away from the category tropes”, which for some reason reminds me of those political activists who tell you that they don’t need those old voters – they can get new, better ones.

In Adweek, the chief strategy officer of Interbrand was one of those going all counterintuitive, praising Jaguar for “showing up like a creative business rather than a car manufacturer”. Hmm. This feels like praising a bottom-of-the-table team for showing up like a creative business rather than a football side.

The big question is how on earth it all happened. Remarkably, there is no rogue outside agency that can be blamed for going off-piste and persuading fusty old Jaguar executives – painfully aware that they are outsold six to one by their Tata Motors stablemate Land Rover – to take a last-ditch big swing. Nope, this was all done in-house.

But the main culprit is timing. Swings this big take months to sign off, and back when the concept of this campaign was approved, it must have seemed perfectly of its moment. Various media outlets have dredged up a clip of its mastermind accepting an award just one month ago, in which he announces, with a distinct air of self-congratulation, that Jaguar has established a full 15 DEI groups. Righto. There is something ludicrous about a guy poised to roll out cars that are going to start at a hundred grand boasting about being mega-inclusive. It reminds me of the time when Coutts debanked Nigel Farage, stating that they were “above all” committed to being an “inclusive organisation”. To which the only reply is: you’re a private bank where people have to have at least £3m in cash savings to open a current account. WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT? Do you “include” low income, middle income, or even the vast majority of high income people? Then honestly – pipe down.

Alas, Jaguar seem to have got the piping-down memo too late, declaring this week that: “This is a reimagining that recaptures the essence of Jaguar, returning it to the values that once made it so loved, but making it relevant for a contemporary audience. We are creating Jaguar for the future, restoring its status as a brand that enriches the lives of our clients and the Jaguar community.” OK! Although, counterpoint: you’re releasing a tired mess, two weeks post a Donald Trump election victory, and amid the undeniable sense that there has been a vibe-shift on the era of woke capitalism that has perplexed and delighted consumers for the past few years, in distinctly unequal measure. In some ways, the timing of this ad calls to mind all those Sunday newspaper columns viciously slagging off Princess Diana that – print lead-in times being what they were – appeared in the newspapers just as the world was waking up to news of her death. There had, to restate the point, been a vibe shift.

The effect is to render Jaguar’s new ad an instant period piece. Or to put it another way: while it might have been infinitely less iconic in terms of design, there is a sense in which that lift in the Jag advert really has turned out to be a secret weapon. Trouble is, it’s pointing the wrong way. Jaguar have Trojan horsed themselves.

• Marina Hyde is a Guardian columnist

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