A lot of data will be published in the upcoming week. You will allow the first further insights into the interior of economic development under Trump conditions.
The profound uncertainty, which the US president brought over America and the world in the first over three months of his term, is likely to leave deep traces. The new role of the United States as an unpredictable trouble maker has triggered a serious loss of trust. So far we know about the economic effects: the massively increased uncertainty makes investments and consumer decisions – more difficult Everywhere, also with us. The international division of labor suffers from the never -ending Washington customs drama, so that all kinds of economic forecasts are revised downwards, most recently from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The financial markets react with wild twitches, a weaker dollar and increasing capital market interest, To the risk of a full-blown Trump crash.
is a professor of economic policy journalism at the Technical University of Dortmund. Previously, the doctoral student worked as a vice editor of the manager magazine. Müller is the author of numerous books on economic and monetary policy issues. For the manager magazine, he gives a pointed view of the most important business events every week and writes the column “magical square”.
Everything bad enough. But hard numbers that would provide information about the actual new location, and specific corporate decisions that could specifically mark the future path of real economy development are so far rare. How the Trump -Scheo -Economic shock has a concrete effect on how far the economy actually sacks, whether Europe loses or possibly even wins, whether the stock exchanges are right, overreact or not show future violent faults – everything open.
In this respect, the upcoming week can contribute to the illumination, a little at least. Many listed companies will report on their businesses in the first quarter, including question response to the board members with analysts and journalists. Various general meetings are pending. The shareholders will have many questions – not only because of the course of the past financial year, but also with regard to the strategic orientation for the future.
Too complicated, too old, too lame?
For Europe, the main question is: the companies are actually more involved in the EU because they appreciate the reliability and openness of Europe, especially in comparison to America and China – or do they continue to avoid us because we are too complicated, old and lame?
The answers will depend on whether we have a chance of self -assertion. Because so much is certain: state billion dollar programs alone will not promote economically and militarily. Especially private investments, the establishment of research and innovation centers, independent data centers and energy sources are necessary to take us into a position of strength. This will not be a sure -fire success, at least that can be said in the past decades.
Supposedly a jerk is currently going through the EU. Christine Lagarde, the President of the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), recently said
. A commentator from the US news-networks Bloomberg already raved about who and what is finally moving in the right direction in the EU. “Other countries stand in line to work with us,” Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made the Brussels Newsportal says “Politico”.
Europe opens up, wins new partners and grows into the champion of the remaining free world – while America withdraws, uniformly and falls back on itself. It’s a great story. It would be great if it were true – or would. We’re not that far yet.
Trump’s first intermediate certificate
Wednesday, Washington Statisticians present an estimate for economic output in the past quarter. It is Trump’s first overall economic intermediate balance. He has been in the White House since January 20. Already in the weeks before, his inputs and omissions caused a lot of sensation. The first consequences of the customs surveys, announcements and shifts will already be recorded in the numbers, even if the Large all -round with the customs hammer It was only in early April, in the second quarter.
It is quite possible that America’s gross domestic product (GDP) has shrunk in the first quarter. It could be the beginning of a trump approval, a shrink economy, the devaluation of which is due to the obsessions of the president and his political Maga mix.
have shown the economists of Swiss bank Safra Sarasin these days how the general loss of trust, which is based on Trump’s government, pulls the mood among American consumers and companies, investors and foreign exchange traders. It would be very surprising if all these tensions would not cause any actual pain.
But it is like so often: our thoughts and worries revolve around Donald Trump’s America again. This is not good.
With Russia alone at home
A year ago it went at this point To our crazy Ami-Mania. Trump was not yet president, but the shadow of a second term already darkened the horizon. We could – and cannot – not stop.
In Germany, the United States is traditionally more medially more present than all other EU countries and the European institutions, such as communication scientists Elad Segev and Menahem Blondheim in one large -scale empirical examination
determined a few years ago. A grotesque mismatch – and a real political obstacle in view of the urgently offered further integration of Europe.
In order for this to be a “moment”, it is not enough that the heads of government and the large factions in the EU Parliament pull themselves together. It is also about us all, as a European people, so to speak. We should look at ourselves more intensively. And above all, that means: on our partners and our common institutions in Brussels, Frankfurt and elsewhere. Conversely formulated: Europe will fail if we continue to afford a serious attention deficit on our own behalf. Without a solid social substructure, a resistant EU will not become a reality.
We are required to work on our own strengths. To close us closer together. To complete the internal market, as the reports of the EU altered Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta pretended last year. The three major imperial powers China, Russia and (recently) America to offer their forehead. And to build on our counter -model. This is all the more as we can no longer rely on the United States. This reality has just revealed again: The so-called US peace plan to end the Ukraine secretary means nothing other than that Washington commemorates its previous European allies with a strengthened Russia.
Defense ability and solid economy are inextricably related. Both are mutually due. We are not sure without a powerful military. Why should someone invest in Europe if we are not ready to protect ourselves? Without a powerful economy, we will not be able to afford the necessary military strengthening. Both require an advanced Europeanization of the state framework.
IAISI, Daugavpils, Braga
In order for Europe to thrive in relative security, attitude of mutual public mindfulness is required. It is about understanding what our partners deals with and drives, what legitimate interests and deep -seated fears they argue. What is the world from the perspective of Iași (northeastern Romania), Daugavpils (eastern Latvia) or Braga (northern Portugal)? To what extent are we similar? What distinguishes us? How else should compromises succeed.
If Europeans in a world are supposed to stand more for each other in a world of bad powers – economically and militarily – a stronger common identity is required. On this basis, cross-EU democratic structures can be accompanied. General disinterest, however, is almost as bad as the all -round exchange of stereotypes devaluing. We can’t get any further.
The IMF presented a study in the past week that shows how central public opinion for the success of structural reforms. In the report
deals with other economic policy issues (subsidy reduction and pension reforms). However, similar arguments also apply to the European context: Without an attentive, committed population who understands the problem and accepts the desired solution, reforms are doomed to fail. Because they have an unpleasant property: they initially cause costs. The positive effects only gradually appear. In order to bridge this temporal gap, it is necessary to insight into the necessities and trust in the institutions. Both are in this era Populistic short key policy
Knapped goods.
The most important economic dates of the coming week
Monday
Ottawa-the anti-Trump-Canadian lower house choice. Restrained by Donald Trump’s expansion deserts, it looks as if Premier Mark Carney, a serious, competent technocrat (Ex-Federal Chairman of Canada, Great Britain), is gaining vote.
Report season I – Business figures from Deutsche Börse, Traton, Schneider Electric, NXP Semiconductors.
HV season I-Annual General Meeting of Vivendi.
Tuesday
Reporting season II – Business figures from Lufthansa, Deutsche Bank, DWS, Adidas, Symrise, Porsche AG, Hellofresh, Stihl, Valeo, Capgemini, BBVA, Carlsberg, Alfa Laval, Spotify, Electrolux, Volvo Cars, Novartis, Clariant, Norsk Hydro, Astrazeca, Mondelez, BP, BP, BP, HSBC, UPS, General Motors, Coca-Cola, Kraft Heinz, Corning, Snap, Visa, PayPal, Universal Music Group.
HV season II-General meetings of Birkenstock, Hochtief, Nokia, Endesa, Meta, Citigroup, American Express, Wells Fargo, IBM.
Wednesday
Berlin – Habemus Merz? -Announcement of the result of the SPD membership vote on the coalition agreement with the Union. The election of Friedrich Merz as Chancellor is scheduled to take place on May 6th.
Wiesbaden – cooling – The Federal Statistical Office submits an initial estimate for the inflation rate in April.
Washington-Trump balance-first estimate of GDP growth for the first quarter in the United States.
Luxembourg-just over zero-the EU statistics authority Eurostat publishes a quick estimate for the gross domestic product of the eurozone and the EU in the first quarter.
Reporting season III-Business figures and reports from Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, DHL, Airbus, Fielmann, Kion, Aixtron, Deutz, Drägerwerk, Wacker Chemie, Silronic, Erste Group, OMV, Totalenergies, Air France-Klm, Société Générale, Crédit Agricole, Santander, Prada, Remy Cointreau, Stellantis, Iberdrola, Arcelormittal, UBS, Barclays, Glaxosmithklin, Glencore, Aston Martin, Meta, Microsoft.
HV season III-Collections of Munich Re, RWE, GEA, Hermes, Knorr Brake, Prada, BNP Paribas, Renault, Sanofi, Essilorluxottica, RTL, Anheuser-Busch Inbev, Unilever, Moderna, Coca-Cola.
Thursday
Berlin – Day of Labor – Demonstrations on May 1st.
Reporting season IV – business figures from Apple, Moderna, Eli Lilly, AIG, Mastercard, Amgen, McDonald’s, Biogen, KKR, Linde.
Friday
Luxembourg – stable euro? -The EU statistics authority Eurostat presents an initial estimate for inflation in the euro zone in April.
Reporting season V – BASF, Ing, Shell, Natwest, Standard Chartered, Pearson, Chevron.
HV season IV-DEL, HSBC, Exxon Mobil (Saturday).