India will be the single-largest contributor to global energy and oil demand growth through 2050 amid population growth and urbanisation, according to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Oil demand growth will be led primarily by road transport, with rapid growth in the passenger and commercial vehicle fleet.
“We see that India is set to be the single largest contributor to global energy demand. The demand will increase to 44 million barrels of oil equivalent (mboe/d) from 22 mboe/d. This means energy demand growth will increase at an average of around 2.7% from now to 2050,” said Dr Abderrezak Benyoucef, head of the energy studies department at OPEC, while presenting *World Oil Outlook 2050* at India Energy Week.
This makes India the biggest driver of incremental global energy consumption, supported by an expanding middle class, faster economic and industrial development, and steady population growth. Demographics and urbanisation are expected to play a central role in shaping future demand.
“India is the most populous country in the world and exceeded China in 2022. By 2050, we expect India to add around 230 million people. Moreover, urbanisation will impact future energy demand. We expect that 1.9 billion people will live in cities by 2050. India’s urbanisation rate is projected to grow and reach 53% from the current level of 37%,” Benyoucef said.
Oil is expected to account for the largest increase among all fuels in India. Demand is projected to rise from about 5.5 mboe/d in 2024 to 13.6 mboe/d in 2050, an increase of roughly 8 mboe/d.
“Although overall oil demand is expected to grow across all sectors, road transport is projected to witness the most significant increase, with an increase of 4.6 mboe/d. Several factors are behind this, the most significant being the exponential expansion of the Indian passenger vehicle fleet from around 50 million in 2024 to over 240 million in 2050. Furthermore, commercial vehicles are expected to increase fourfold by 2050 on the back of economic growth. The most important source of incremental demand will be diesel, followed by gasoline,” he said.
Oil’s share in India’s energy mix is expected to grow to over 31% by 2050, up from 25.1% in 2024, even as demand for other fuels also increases.
Globally, primary energy demand is projected to rise from 308 mboe/d in 2024 to 378 mboe/d in 2050, marking a 23% increase over the period, or about 0.8% growth per year. Nearly all of this growth is expected to come from developing regions, led by India, other parts of Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, while demand in developed economies is forecast to remain flat or decline.
In oil specifically, global demand is projected to increase by more than 19 million barrels per day between 2024 and 2050 to nearly 123 mb/d. Non-OECD countries are expected to account for almost all of this growth, adding close to 28 mb/d, while OECD demand is set to fall by about 8.5 mb/d.
India, along with other Asian economies, the Middle East, and Africa, is expected to be a key engine of long-term oil demand growth. Combined, these regions are projected to add 22.4 mb/d by 2050, with India alone contributing about 8.2 mb/d. In contrast, China’s oil demand is projected to rise by less than 2 mb/d over the same period, underlining India’s growing centrality to global energy and oil markets.
The transport sector is India’s third-largest source of carbon emissions, estimated to make up about 12% of all energy-related CO₂ emissions. Most of this comes from road transport, which accounts for more than 90% of emissions from the sector. The number of passenger vehicles is rising fast. While car ownership in India is still low at around 35 cars per 1,000 people, far below levels in countries such as Japan, China, the US, and Germany, the total number of vehicles is increasing strongly as population grows and incomes rise.