05.06.2018 Ι A study shows that the conversion of traffic to electric vehicles has a lot to do with the car industry. Above all, about 100,000 employees who produce drive trains. The IG Metall says: It can be done when politics and industry no longer miss any time, but now set the right course.
The increase in electric vehicles may mean that around 20,000 around 76,000 jobs in drive technology will become superfluous in the auto industry as early as 2030. This is the conclusion of the study “Effects of vehicle electrification on employment in Germany” (“ELAB”) of the Fraunhofer Institute for Ergonomics and Organization (IAO) in Stuttgart. The job loss mainly affects the supply industry.
In the most probable of their scenarios, researchers assume that 25 percent of electric vehicles and 15 percent of hybrid vehicles will be used. With such a proportion of electrification and improvements in internal combustion engines, it would be possible to reduce the environmental impact of carbon dioxide by car traffic by up to 40 percent. But the car industry is facing huge upheavals.
Every second affected
In their model calculation, the scientists assume that as many powertrains will be produced in 2030 as in 2016: 5.75 million. And they take into account the normal advances in productivity that mean fewer and fewer people are needed for the same amount of goods. In this case, around 76,000 employees could lose their jobs. On the other hand, around 25,000 new jobs are needed to manufacture the components for e-cars, such as batteries and power electronics. Thousands of workers would have to qualify for new jobs. Thus, the upheaval – directly or indirectly – affects more than half of the 210,000 workers who develop and produce powertrains in the auto and supply industry. In addition, there will be the potential consequences of digitization on jobs in the future.
“This development would have very different effects on the individual companies and regions,” says Professor Oliver Riedel, Director of the Institute at the Fraunhofer Institute IAO. “They can be considerable, for example, if smaller companies can not offset lower sales of components for internal combustion engines” – and thus and “if they are located in structurally weak areas, where there are hardly any employment alternatives.”
No reason to panic
“From the point of view of the IG Metall, the numbers are not a reason to be scared.” The challenge is great, but it has to be mastered if the right conditions are created now, “says Jörg Hofmann, the first chairman of IG Metall. “Policymakers and companies must now develop strategies to shape this transformation,” he says. “Policymakers must flank the necessary structural changes through targeted industrial and employment policies.” If the EU Commission in Brussels regulates limit values for CO2 in order to achieve this Protecting the climate requires companies to set feasible targets and allow for sufficient adaptation times, not least because jobs are affected and skills need to be tackled on a large scale, and Brussels must support the process.
Federal government must become active
IG Metall expects the German government to finally present a coherent overall concept for the necessary infrastructure, above all for charging stations, electricity distribution grids and sufficient electricity from renewable energy, but also for supplying the necessary raw materials for battery cells and recycling concepts for used batteries. At least as important is that the government does not let the workers stand in the rain. Many companies are overwhelmed by the level of qualification that comes with switching to employees. The state should accompany them, for example with a new transformation short-time allowance, the IG Metall demands.
Industry at the crossroads
“We must use the coming years to initiate the necessary adjustment processes,” warns Jörg Hofmann. “But the course has now been set.” To keep employees from getting out of their way through the whole process, companies need to develop concepts and invest money to secure their locations and employment. For example, this could include investing in new products for new markets that have nothing to do with cars.
In addition, IG Metall attaches great importance to employees, works councils and their trade unions being involved right from the start when it comes to new concepts. After all, it’s about their future.
The study
The study was initiated by IG Metall, car manufacturers BMW, Volkswagen and Daimler, automotive suppliers Robert Bosch, ZF Friedrichshafen, Schaeffler, and Mahle and the German Association of the Automotive Industry. The study is based on data from the companies involved. It represents half of the employment in the drive technology, so are very meaningful for the entire auto industry.