Electrification of the powertrain leads to significantly lower manpower requirements. This concerns above all the supplier area
The transformation to electromobility can succeed if the framework conditions are right
Politicians and businesses are now challenged to develop strategies to meet this challenge
Frankfurt am Main – By 2030, every second workstation in the drive technology of passenger cars can be directly or indirectly affected by electromobility. This is the conclusion of the study “Effects of vehicle electrification on employment in Germany (ELAB)” of the Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering IAO. In Germany, electrification and productivity will mean that on balance – assuming likely developments – around 75,000 jobs in drive technology will disappear. It has already been calculated that around 25,000 new jobs will be created for components such as batteries or power electronics. The automotive industry in Germany has around 840,000 employees, including around 210,000 in the production of powertrains.
The results do not provide any reason for anxiety, said Jörg Hofmann, first chairman of IG Metall, at the presentation of the study on Monday evening in Frankfurt. “The challenge is great, but it has to be overcome if the right conditions are created now,” emphasized Hofmann. He sees politics and business as his responsibility. “Policymakers and companies must now develop strategies to shape this transformation, and policies must flank the necessary structural change in the automotive industry through a focused industrial and employment policy, and companies must ensure, especially with a massive training offensive, that workers in this Change does not come under the wheels. ” Hofmann called on politicians and employers to put in place reliable concepts and suggestions. “We need to use the years ahead to launch these necessary adjustment processes – but the course is being set today,” said the IG Metall chairman.
Based on the total number of employed persons in Germany of more than 44 million, this potential job loss is low, said Oliver Riedel, Institute Director at Fraunhofer IAO. “But depending on the operation and region, the consequences can be considerable – for example, when smaller companies can not compensate for lower sales of components for internal combustion engines, or when there are hardly any employment alternatives in structurally weak regions.”
The study was initiated by IG Metall, BMW, Volkswagen, Daimler, Robert Bosch, ZF Friedrichshafen, Schaeffler, Mahle and the Association of the Automotive Industry. The researchers at Fraunhofer IAO have analyzed the employment effects of electromobility in three scenarios. The focus is on a scenario in which a quarter of the vehicles will be driven purely by electric power by 2030, 15 percent are plug-in hybrids, and 60 percent have a more efficient petrol or diesel engine. Special emphasis is placed on plug-in hybrids. Because they combine both types of propulsion, they have positive consequences both in terms of climate and employment policy. It is required in all scenarios that the components for hybrid and all-electric vehicles are produced largely in Germany.
The study is based on data from the manufacturing of the companies involved. The share of employment analyzed there represents more than half of the value added chains in drive technology in Germany. The results are therefore highly valid.