Cap hpi is predicting a “relatively strong” Q4 for used car values despite the impact of WLTP.
Derren Martin, head of current valuations with cap hpi said some carmakers were likely to register lower volumes than usual in September and this could stretch into Q4 and beyond, with a positive impact on values.
“With fewer part-exchanges entering the market from this reduction, as some fleets extend their contracts by a few months, this could be good news for used car values beyond the immediate future. With demand unlikely to fall below where it seasonally is in the final four months of the year and even the potential for new car customers to be converted into late-plate used offerings.”
Martin said accurate forecasting was difficult because of the impact of WLTP on the market.
“However, it is our view that the final months of the year will be relatively strong for used car values.”
Cap said the used market remained strong through August with overall values dropping 0.3% in Black Book live for both diesel and petrol cars at three years and 60,000 miles.
For diesel the outlook in the used car market was positive compared to the new market, where sales have plummeted in 2018.
Cap hpi said diesel vehicles retained their appeal with trade buyers with larger vehicles performing well.
City cars were slightly weaker than the average during August. Many of these have been remarkably strong for the last year, and prices are starting to soften.