Even German sedans can sometimes miss things. While sales of Audi, BMW and Mercedes have soared since 2010 and the magical trio continues to accumulate records, the pace of their growth has slowed in recent months, according to the latest data firm Jato Dynamics.
In the first half, the global volumes of Mercedes, the current leader in the high-end car, rose by 3.9% (against 13.7% over the same period the previous year), those of BMW gained 2 %, far from the 5.2% posted between January and June 2017. As for Audi, its sales, which had dropped 4.7% last year, have inflated 4.5% – but in absolute terms, the brand The rings are doing less well than in 2016.
What is happening in France illustrates the current trend. In a market up 8.9%, Audi saw its hexagon registrations fall by 7.7% over the first eight months of the year, and BMW won by 1.3%. Only Mercedes limits the breakage, with a gain of 1%. All this while the French market had a crazy summer, caused by the arrival of a new homologation standard that pushed manufacturers to destock massively.
Casually, “the key models of the three German brands are aging, says Felipe Munoz, at Jato. The Mercedes C Series saw their sales fall by 5% this semester. The Audi A3, the car the most sold by the brand last year, is on sale since 2012. The BMW 3 Series too, we are waiting for the next generation at the next Paris Motor Show.
Shadows on the board
If, on the bottom, it is not clear how the kings premium would lose their crown in the medium term, several elements do not grow to bliss optimism. First, the trio will have to operate a delicate turn towards the electric , and especially deal with his competitors the expected end of a global automotive growth cycle . Several crucial markets are reaching a plateau. According to Alix Partners, the average annual growth of sales on the Old Continent should be around 0.2% between 2017 and 2025. On the other side of the Atlantic, we would be around a rise of 0.5% per year.
Then the competition, long under the extinguisher, crackles again. Despite its production problems, Tesla continues its merry way and settles in the landscape. Jaguar and Volvo, under their Indian and Chinese flags, are in full recovery. The Japanese brands Infiniti and Lexus could also break through one day, persevering. Even Peugeot seems to succeed in its current rise in the range, symbolized by the success of the 3008 SUV (now the third best-selling vehicle in France). “German brands should retain their leadership, but they will lose market share,” said experts Alix Partners.
In the premium match, Mercedes still leads the way with 1.19 million vehicles sold in the first half, compared with 1.06 million for BMW and 950,000 for Audi.