The consulting firm McKinsey has published the RACE 2050 report on the European auto industry.
The report of McKinsey is divided into three parts. Changes, approaches and goals. This tripartition is mainly based on developments in the mobility field.
Screenshot of the McKinsey study (PDF)
The changes have been around for some time. This means autonomous driving, networking, shared mobility and e-mobility. This has already been recognized by most manufacturers and they answer with CASE (Mercedes Benz) or ACES (BMW) or more. The abbreviations stand for the four mentioned upheavals. But apparently you have waited a long time and are now behind.
In particular, companies outside the traditional automotive market are gaining momentum. This speeds up the process noticeably. The auto industry therefore recommends that the study reinforce its skills and handle the employment transition in order to retain leadership in the auto industry. However, that leaves the report m. E. on the outside, that the staff is difficult to find.
McKinsey sees China in a better position, there are 61 companies that produce electric cars. More e-cars are being produced and more investments are being made in startup innovations. E-mobility is promoted more strongly there than in Europe. By 2020, there will also be five million charging stations. E-vehicle production since 2014 has risen by 67 percent in the US, by 145 percent in the EU and by 1,097 percent in China.
The European manufacturers should rely on the software competences. The report predicts that in 2030, 30 percent of the value of the car will be the software. Until then, robotic cars in cities would be cheaper than using the private cars, According to a survey, 67 percent see the share of shared vehicles rise dramatically and according to McKinsey’s view, 10 percent of cars would belong to shared mobility by 2030.
McKinsey has been investigating investment in future mobility since 2010. In the US, it was 69 billion euros, and in China it was 40 billion euros. In the two European countries with the highest investment, there were far fewer: Great Britain 2.3 billion euros and in France 1.5 billion euros. Germany is not mentioned, but it reveals that the conservative policy with focus on the internal combustion engine and the private car was not conducive.
McKinsey expects lorries to enter convoys in 2022. Mercedes-Benz has recently made it clear that the benefits are so smallthat the concept will not be pursued further. Meanwhile, according to the McKinsey report, 80 percent of manufacturers want to develop high autonomy (Level 4). With regard to networking, acceptance has doubled and it is predicted that by 2030, 80 percent of lorries will be networked. In e-mobility, 50 percent of people in Germany are considering the purchase of an e-car, and revenue from shared mobility will rise to 55 billion. Therefore, the industry must rely more on cooperation. The upheavals also change the mobility behavior, which is reflected for example in Mobility-as-a-Service manifests.
McKinsey advises on the following approaches: to put more emphasis on the travelers, to better address sustainability and to find a European way. The should Networking, the Vision Zero, the cost cutting for mobility and participation in individual transport. This is possible with networked and autonomous driving.
In this way one should promote the establishment of a mobility ecosystem. In addition, the interaction of the car industry, politics and stakeholders should be made possible. The targets are then 2050: no more traffic fatalities, access to affordable mobility for 90 percent of people and the possibility of the Time in the car to use differently. The latter allows the increase in profits, but is due to the other developments.
On the horizon, according to the study by McKinsey, opens the end of the classic vehicle sales. But this opens up the Aftersales market with networking and mobile services. Worldwide, this segment has so far made 3,000 billion euros. By 2030, the volume will almost double. 80 percent of the profits will come from new technologies such as autonomous driving, networking, vehicle sharing and e-mobility.
Study as PDF
About David Flora
I’ve been writing about the topic of Autonomous & Connected Driving since 2011 and also talk about it on other sites like the Smart Mobility Hub. I studied social sciences at the HU Berlin and since 2012 I am a freelance journalist. Contact: mail@autonomes-fahren.de