Tesla: Model S & Model X Production, AR Production Improvements, And Model Y Rumors

Published on January 24th, 2019 | by Steve Hanley

January 24th, 2019 by Steve Hanley

It takes a lot to keep up with everything that’s happening at Tesla these days. After the company announced it was laying off 3,000 production workers last week, the media has been filled with scary headlines about how the company is fighting for survival. Now, to stir the pot even further, comes news that changes are taking place in the production of the Model S and Model X.

CNBC reports it has been told by several recently laid off workers that the company has suspended nighttime production of the Model S and Model X at the factory in Fremont. Is there a connection between that and the decision to stop selling the 75 kWh battery version of those cars? Possibly. Both cars now cost nearly $20,000 more than they did when the 75 kWh battery was available. It’s no surprise such a significant price increase might have an impact on demand.

A former Tesla engineer tells CNBC the company is debating whether to “sunset” either the Model S or the Model X, although what that means exactly was not explained and a key note there is that it was a former Tesla engineer. Also, we’ve never heard before that the Model S or Model X would be pulled at some point — quite the opposite, that they’d always be Tesla’s top-tier offerings. Who is this former engineer? We don’t know, but she or he also said there was no upgrade team for the S or X working on a vehicle refresh.

Tesla has learned a lot about manufacturing automobiles since the first Model S rolled off the line in June of 2012. There is surely some potential improvement to the production process if tackled comprehensively. Also, with the lower-cost Model 3 now at steady, high-volume production, there is less need (and probably less demand) for the lower-range Model S 75D.

In a statement to CNBC, Tesla said, “We recently announced that we are no longer taking orders for the 75 kWh version of Model S and X in order to streamline production and provide even more differentiation with Model 3. As a result of this change and because of improving efficiencies in our production lines, we have reduced Model S and X production hours accordingly. At the same time, these changes, along with continuing improvements, give us the flexibility to increase our production capacity in the future as needed. We’ll be providing more details on our earnings call next week.”

There is a bit of confusion here. Some outlets are claiming that Tesla Model S and X production output is being cut significantly. The statement from Tesla indicates production hours are being cut and improved efficiencies on the production lines actually provide “the flexibility to increase our production capacity.” Hmm, which way are the sales going — up or down?

Augmented Reality Comes To Manufacturing

Tesla has a passion for robotic assembly techniques as it races to create “the machine that builds the machine.” But just a short while ago, Elon Musk admitted that robots have their limitations and that there is no substitute for human workers when it comes to getting the job done. “Yes, excessive automation at Tesla was a mistake. To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated,” he tweeted last April. Tesla hired a lot of new workers last year, then trimmed many of those new hires from its payroll last week.

On a related note, Tesla recently filed a patent application for new augmented reality technology it says will speed up production while improving the accuracy of the assembly process. According to Teslarati, the patent application has the following explanation:

“There are many practical applications for the augmented reality (AR) manufacturing techniques discussed herein. In some embodiments, the AR device is used to program a robot to assemble one or more parts including identifying and marking the precise location and order of welds, self-pierced rivets, laser welds, adhesives, sealers, holes, fasteners, or other mechanical joints, etc. As another example, the AR device can be used to inspect the quality of the assembly for a vehicle such as whether the locations of welds are correct, whether the interfaces between parts such as body panels are within tolerances, whether holes are drilled or punched at the correct location, whether the fit and finish of assembly is correct, etc.

“In some embodiments, vision recognition is utilized. Individual sheet metal components and/or assemblies that are or will be part of the body-in-white (also known as the structural frame or body) are recognized. Once the component/system has been identified, computer-aided design (CAD) information (e.g., information and/or symbols associated with the mechanical joints) is aligned/scaled and rendered on corresponding identified physical model components. The application of the disclosed techniques applies to many different contexts of manufacturing.

“For example, the AR device can be used to map the quality of a coating on an automotive part such as determining the thickness of an e-coating on a vehicle body and identifying problem areas that are difficult to coat. In some embodiments, the AR device is used to map out a factory floor and to identify the precise location and orientation robots should be installed at to build out an assembly line. The robots are positioned based on the AR device such that the installed robots will not interfere with each other or other obstructions in the environment.”

Credit: US Patent Office

Tesla has set very aggressive goals for its Shanghai factory, which it hopes to have up and running just over a year from now. Could AR technology play a role in bringing the new facility online quicker and turning out high quality cars sooner than many think possible?

Tesla Model Y Timeline

There is much speculation at the Model 3 Owners Club about the Model Y, based on a story on Seeking Alpha that suggests Tesla may not begin taking reservations for it until it is close to the time of production — a reversal of the hoopla that preceded the Model 3 launch. Keep in mind that everything that follows is little more than unsubstantiated rumors. The official reveal is widely expected in March, although the company has not said anything on that subject. [Editor’s note: I asked Elon Musk about the reservation and rollout plan for the Model Y on Tesla’s 3rd quarter financials call, specifically hoping that Tesla would delay reservations until close to production time. We’ll see. —Zach]

Model 3 Owners Club member LoveSword added this on the forum last month: “Here is a ‘I heard from a guy who heard from a guy…’ addition (grains of salt and all that): One of the Rangers that’s been out to work on my car has been with Tesla since Roadster days. He went through orientation and is friends with a guy who has risen within the company. According to the Ranger, when he talked with this guy about the Y he was told, ‘You wouldn’t believe how far along we are already on the Y.’ That was in September when the Ranger was out for my headlight replacement. So… there’s that.”

One topic of discussion is whether the Model Y will have falcon-wing doors like its Model X big brother. Elon tweeted 3½ years ago that it would, but he deleted that tweet the next day and, since then, he has been quiet about the details of the Model Y. On the Q2 Tesla earnings call in 2017, he said his engineers had brought him back from the “cliffs of insanity,” and then added: “After talking to my executive team, the Model Y will use a significant amount of Model 3 components.”

On the falcon-wing door subject, Model 3 Owners Club member 11thIndian offered this opinion: “If you want them, then I guess you can point to [Musk’s statement from 2017] and be hopeful. From my perspective as someone who does not want them, that tweet was made so long ago in terms of the Model Y’s development, I give it no credence whatsoever now. And honestly, if the Model Y is the budget Model X, then the Falcon Wing Doors are the first thing to go in terms of complexity and cost.”

When will the Model Y get here and what will it look like? Hopefully the car that is supposed to break the back of the internal combustion car industry will be revealed in March and all our questions will be answered.

About the Author

Steve Hanley Steve writes about the interface between technology and sustainability from his home in Rhode Island and anywhere else the Singularity may lead him. His motto is, "Life is not measured by how many breaths we take but by the number of moments that take our breath away!" You can follow him on Google + and on Twitter.