Low profile. The lucky ones invited to the presentation of the new Tesla, Thursday night in California, were entitled to the “humble” face of Elon Musk. The whimsical boss of the Californian manufacturer had however planned a big show in the presence of investors and customers for introduce the Model Y , the SUV declination of the Model 3.
All dressed in black, however, he has only spent a few minutes to the last born of the range, spending most of the presentation to evoke the tumultuous history of Tesla, including its difficulties to produce the Model 3, its first “general public” vehicle.
SUV segment in full “boom”
It is that the Model Y, which should land in the US dealerships in the fall of 2020, arrives in a somewhat critical period for Tesla. Promised for a long time, this newcomer is for the Californian manufacturer just as crucial as was the Model 3: a little larger than his little sister, able to accommodate up to 7 passengers, it must allow him to launch on the segment “boom” SUV, a vehicle more affordable than its Model X, sold since 2015 for nearly 100,000 euros.
Its cheapest version, announced at $ 39,000, will however be available in 2021. In the meantime, it will cost between $ 47,000 and $ 60,000, for a car whose autonomy will reach a minimum of 300 miles (482 kilometers). Orders are already open (or will be in the near future) in countries where the Model 3 has already been launched, with a deposit of $ 2,500.
Grants are drying up
The question is whether the appetite of motorists will live up to the ambitions – and whether Tesla will be able to ensure production by remaining profitable. “This new product could weigh on the demand for the Model 3 if consumers decide to wait a bit to buy a Tesla SUV,” said David Tamberrino, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, quoted by Bloomberg. Philippe Houchois, at Jefferies, believes for his part that, given prices and timing, “there will not necessarily be cannibalization.”
As subsidies dry up, it will be crucial to reduce production costs – to show the lowest selling prices possible and to support demand. Model Y, which will be “most likely” produced in the Tesla’s Gigafactory in Nevada , will share 75% of its parts with the Model 3. “Tesla has also abandoned its dream of integration and extreme automation , reducing his capital intensity and returning to more conventional standards in the sector, “says the analyst.
Flip-flop on the shops
For now, the Californian manufacturer seems to have trouble solving the equation. To offer the $ 35,000 promised version of the Model 3, Elon Musk announced the closing of all its stores -before doing flip-flop ten days later facing the slingshot of its employees and customers. “In addition, the question of price elasticity remains unresolved: it is not certain that lowering prices is boosting sales,” says Philippe Houchois.
Having finally released profits over the last two quarters of 2018, the manufacturer had promised a profit every quarter of 2019 … before announcing at the end of February that it was not so certain, in the first three months of the year.