German Manager Magazin: New car registrations: Electric cars are growing strongly, but the German car market will shrink by 19 percent in 2020

In 2020, fewer new cars were registered nationwide than in ten years. With 2.92 million new registrations, the German fell Car market in the Corona crisis by a good 19 percent, as shown by figures from the Federal Motor Transport Authority. At the end of the year, sales were stronger than expected and so mitigated the decline. In November, the industry association VDA had predicted a decline of 20 percent; in the middle of the year, after the sharp slump in the first half of the year, it had assumed a decline of 25 percent.

A good every fifth new car belonged to the SUV segment. Motorhomes experienced a real boom – in view of the many travel restrictions and closed hotels, an alternative to travel that was much in demand during the Corona crisis. Therefore, the manufacturer stayed Fiat, who dominates the segment with its Ducato model, is the only brand other than Tesla a paragraph minus saved.

The slump in sales is economically difficult for the industry, said Hildegard Müller (53), President of the Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), on Friday. “We expect the German car market to recover in 2021. Nevertheless, the very strong pre-Corona level will not be reached for the time being.”

Closing time panic in December: record thanks to lower VAT

The last time the numbers slumped more sharply was 2010. After a boom as a result of the scrappage bonus, they fell to just under 2.92 million.

December brought positive numbers. 311,394 new registrations in the month corresponded to an increase of about 10 percent compared to the same month last year. The VDA spoke of the “highest approval volume ever achieved in a December” – despite the lockdown in the second half of the month.

“Many private customers bought a car at the end of the year in order to benefit from the VAT cut,” explained Reinhard Zirpel, President of the Association of International Motor Vehicle Manufacturers. At the turn of the year, the reduction in VAT from 19 to 16 percent, intended as a corona economic aid, expired.

Sales of electric cars tripled

There was significant growth in the past year Electric cars: The share of purely battery-powered vehicles in all new registrations rose to 6.7 percent from just under 1.8 percent in the previous year to 194,000 cars.

In addition, vehicles with hybrid drive achieved a share of 18.1 percent with almost 528,000 new registrations in 2020 – including around 200,000 plug-in hybrids. Compared to the previous year, new registrations of plug-in hybrids increased by 342 percent, electric car registrations tripled (plus 207 percent).

The government target of one million electric cars, originally announced for 2020 but postponed to 2022 due to the long period of weak market development, is apparently within reach: for this, battery-electric cars and plug-in hybrids count together. New figures on the vehicle inventory have not yet been published, but Early 2020 there were 539,383 cars of both drive types in the country. With almost 400,000 new registrations – assuming that not too many electric cars were deregistered at the same time – there would be more than 900,000 electric cars on German roads.

The increase in the funding of electric cars by the federal government from 3,000 to 6,000 euros makes them currently very attractive in terms of price and leads to an enormous increase in interest, explained the automotive market expert of the consulting company EY, Peter Fuß, and also referred to new models from the manufacturers. In the new year, they would now have “an even greater interest” in bringing large numbers of electrified models onto the road in order to comply with CO2 requirements and avoid fines. It is now to be hoped that “the expansion of the charging infrastructure will also progress to a corresponding extent”.

Gasoline engines lose more than diesel

Auto expert Stefan Bratzel from the Center of Automotive Management (CAM) in Bergisch Gladbach said that in 2020 Germany had “become the second largest single market for electromobility worldwide thanks to funding”. The Federal Republic could “increasingly develop a pacemaker function for the new form of propulsion”. What is critical, however, is that more than 50 percent of the high e-car registrations are based on plug-in hybrids, “which only make ecological sense with certain driving profiles and with regular charging,” explained Bratzel.

In a current forecast, the CAM is now assuming further growth in electromobility over the next few years. By 2025, the annual new registrations of electric vehicles would increase to around 900,000, which would then correspond to a share of 27 percent of new sales. It is assumed that the vast majority of around 65 percent will be purely electric vehicles. “The charging infrastructure remains a major challenge, as it could slow down the acceptance of e-vehicles and the future market ramp-up,” Bratzel also pointed out.

New registrations of gasoline and diesel cars fell significantly in 2020 – although they still make up the bulk of the new car market: gasoline-powered cars fell by 36.3 percent to 1.36 million new registrations, diesel cars by 28.9 percent to just under 820,000.

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