Crisis, what was there? The car industry had to in 2020 because of the Corona pandemic sometimes make substantial cuts in sales figures and turnover. This year, however, the situation for the auto industry looks pretty good – despite renewed lockdowns at the beginning of the year.
Because worldwide vehicle sales this year will increase by 8 percent to 83 million vehicles. This is shown by the “Global Automotive Outlook 2021” by the management consultancy Alixpartners, which manager magazin had in advance. Revenue and profitability will also rise again to pre-crisis levels in 2021 as a whole. One reason: In the corona crisis – and the resulting shortage of new cars – car manufacturers were able to significantly increase vehicle prices.
“The effects of the Covid-19 crisis are no longer one of the main concerns of the automotive industry,” says the study – automakers are coming out of the crisis better than expected a year ago. Even the profitability of the industry can reach the pre-pandemic level again this year. According to Alixpartners managing director Jens Haas, “rigorous” cost measures, state support, the renouncement of discount battles and the rapid recovery in the country have contributed to this China.
Good financial figures – also thanks to government economic stimulus
However, the regional differences are considerable. While China has already exceeded the sales figures of 2019 this year, Europe will remain below the pre-crisis level in terms of car sales in the medium term. Nevertheless, Europe’s automakers have greater financial leeway. According to the study, they currently have higher liquidity and, in some cases, higher profitability than they did before the pandemic. And the cash reserves are also decent, Alixpartners currently estimates them to be four times as high in Europe as they were in the financial crisis year 2008.
Many manufacturers were able to compensate for the decline in the number of units sold with higher prices – the sales prices per new vehicle have recently risen by an average of 7 percent or 2,000 dollars.
The car manufacturers also owe their good financial figures to the enormous government stimulus programs of the past few months. State aid around the world was seven times higher than in 2009, with governments pumping over $ 13.7 trillion into supporting their economies. In the four largest European economies, financial aid was twenty times higher than in the financial crisis more than a decade ago: Germany, Great Britain, France and Italy together spent $ 3.4 trillion, compared to “only” $ 0.17 trillion in 2009 for the four countries combined.
Supply chain problems could also hit the e-car plans
However, the car manufacturers must now quickly make their supply chains more crisis-resistant, warn the consultants. The raw material costs per vehicle have almost doubled since 2020 to over 3,600 dollars, and the study shows that the shortage of chips will lead to a production loss of up to four million vehicles.
According to Alixpartners, the accelerated changeover to electric drives is also causing a “need for adjustment” in the supply chains. According to the study, 28 percent of all new vehicles worldwide will be delivered with battery electric or plug-in hybrid drives by 2030, and in Europe it will even be 42 percent. Investments in electromobility will also increase much more rapidly by 2025 than expected last year: In the next four years, carmakers in Europe will invest 52 percent more in electric vehicles than forecast in 2020, and worldwide it will be 41 percent more than one year ago Year expected.
In terms of sales prices, electric cars will not catch up with comparable combustion engines until later than previously expected. The study shows that electric cars are still up to $ 11,000 more expensive than classic combustion engines. “Government incentives for electric cars are therefore still necessary in any case,” says Jens Haas. For the study, the management consultancy evaluated the balance sheets of more than 300 automobile manufacturers and suppliers, interviewed experts and carried out surveys.