Possible_Terrorism_Warfare – Page 1046 – I wish I had more to offer

UPDATE 3-Uber unveils next-generation Volvo self-driving car

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Uber Technologies Inc unveiled its newest Volvo self-driving car in Washington on Wednesday as it works to eventually deploy vehicles without drivers under some limited conditions. FILE PHOTO: Uber’s Volvo XC90 self driving car is shown during a demonstration of self-driving automotive technology in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S. September 13, 2016. REUTERS/Aaron Josefczyk… Continue reading UPDATE 3-Uber unveils next-generation Volvo self-driving car

Uber unveils new Volvo self-driving vehicle in a step toward robotaxi service

Uber Advanced Technologies Group unveiled Wednesday a new generation of self-driving Volvo XC90 SUVs that are designed and built to be fully driverless, a critical milepost for the company as it inches toward deployment of a robotaxi service. Volvo and Uber have developed several prototypes since entering into a joint engineering partnership in September 2016.… Continue reading Uber unveils new Volvo self-driving vehicle in a step toward robotaxi service

Automakers lay out mpg concerns for Trump: Talk to California, please

Ten months after the U.S. EPA and DOT proposed easing federal fleet fuel economy standards for 2021-2026, there has been no formal submission of the plan. And more than a year after the EPA suggested that it might challenge California’s waiver to set stricter standards, it hasn’t confirmed one way or another whether it will do that.

As if a rapidly evolving tariff situation and trade war weren’t enough, the uncertainty over mileage standards has also led to a great deal of unease in the auto industry. Thursday, 17 automakers sent a letter to President Trump asking for some reassurance on the mileage standards—and spelling out exactly what they presently want: one national standard for vehicle fuel economy, in the form of a final rule that California can support.

Audi e-tron, on the Golden Gate Bridge

The letter thanks the President for supporting “a vibrant and competitive auto industry in the United States,” and notes the different market landscape versus in 2011, when the standards were last revamped. Examples include lower-than-expected fuel prices, a higher rate of SUV and pickup sales, and a lower-than-anticipated adoption rate of vehicles with alternative powertrains.

The automakers stressed that the final rule, which would cover model years 2021 to 2026, would need to include “flexibilities that promote advanced technology for the sake of long-term environmental gains and U.S. global competitiveness.”

“For these reasons, we support a unified standard that both achieves year-over-year improvements in fuel economy and facilitates the adoption of vehicles with alternative powertrains,” said the automakers. “We encourage both the federal government and California to resume discussions and to remain open to regulatory adjustments that provide the flexibility needed to meet future environmental goals and respond to consumer needs.”

Tesla didn't signed to the letter. Direct mentions of electric vehicles, electrification, hybrids, carbon reduction, or climate change were also notably missing from the letter, which was sent in CC to Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao, U.S. EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler, and National Economic Council Director Lawrence Kudlow.

Tesla factory, Fremont, California

Talks between the federal and California agencies, according to a joint statement from the EPA and Transportation Department, broke off in February as the California Air Resource Board “failed to put forward a productive alternative. CARB claims that talks never actually got to the depth of either discussing or negotiating policy.

The regulation proposal itself is overdue. What the EPA previously issued was just a notice of proposed rulemaking. The plan hasn’t yet been rolled out in any formal way, and Reuters noted that before it can even be published it needs to be submitted to the White House Office of Management and Budget for review.

The administration hasn’t yet rolled out the formal version of its plan, which was last reported to make a very small increase in fleet-wide fuel efficiency. Wheeler told Reuters in April that “our final regulation is not going to be the same as our proposal.”

Most automakers, who may have been eager to lobby for relaxed standards, have come to realize that a long fight with California isn’t in the interest of global competitiveness. And if the EPA decides to deny California of its waiver, the case could lead to an extended (read: years-long) state of unease as the case makes its way through the courts.

As the letter explained, a divided U.S. market “could prove as untenable as the current program.”

California Air Resources Board chair Mary Nichols (via Twitter)

CARB chairwoman Mary Nichols last month said that if it is denied its GHG waiver the state might get creative with fees, taxes, and perhaps even bans on certain types of vehicles and products.
Green Car Reports has reached out to CARB, which wasn’t officially looped in on the letter, and will update this piece when they provide a statement or reaction.

“Striking the proper balance will not be easy, but we know with your leadership it can happen,” the automakers swoon to Trump, in a conclusion to the letter. “We are eager to work with you to advance this outcome and strengthen our economy and technological leadership.”

M5S: “Fca-Reanault, Italy is the protagonist of negotiations to protect our interests”

The Turin M5S deputy in the Labor Commission Jessica Costanzo and the M5S council groups in the Turin and Piedmont Region intervene on the French government’s statements regarding the merger of FCA and Renault. “Serious the claim attributed to the French Ministry that would claim the headquarters in Paris and extraordinary dividends – the 5-star… Continue reading M5S: “Fca-Reanault, Italy is the protagonist of negotiations to protect our interests”

Ford Is Fined in China as Trade Fight With U.S. Rages

BEIJING — China’s antitrust regulator on Wednesday announced a fine of around $25 million on Ford’s main joint venture in the country, the latest action against an American company amid the widening economic battle between China and the United States. The fine on Changan Ford, which is owned equally by the Detroit automaker and a… Continue reading Ford Is Fined in China as Trade Fight With U.S. Rages

NIO Q1 2019 Results Reveal Challenges

Challenging conditions in China are affecting NIO. Only 2,800-3,200 ES8/ES6 to be sold in Q2. Chinese premium electric car manufacturer NIO released financial results for the first quarter of 2019 which reveals several interesting things. First of all, the company sold in Q1 3,989 NIO ES8, which translated into a negative gross margin of 13.4%:… Continue reading NIO Q1 2019 Results Reveal Challenges

Tesla’s new China-made Model 3 opens for pre-order with a 13% price cut

Tesla’s big bet on China-based production is key to a new effort to lure Chinese consumers with cheaper prices. Today the U.S. firm revealed that its incoming Model 3, which will be produced in China, will sell from 328,000 RMB — that’s around $47,500, and some 13% cheaper than its previous entry-level option. The company… Continue reading Tesla’s new China-made Model 3 opens for pre-order with a 13% price cut

Elon Musk says he earned nothing from Tesla in 2018

Tech mogul Elon Musk denied reports that claimed he had earned $2.3 billion in stock options in 2018 San Francisco: While his electric vehicle (EV) company Tesla struggles to make profit, tech mogul Elon Musk denied reports that claimed he had earned $2.3 billion in stock options in 2018. Instead, Musk said he had pocketed… Continue reading Elon Musk says he earned nothing from Tesla in 2018

Tesla Model 3 available for cheaper in China as pre-orders open

Tesla has opened pre-orders in China for its Model 3 cars, which are being sold at a 13% discount for Chinese consumers. The domestically-produced cars are cheaper than the models being imported from the US, and Tesla stated it expects to begin deliveries within the next 10 months. Elon Musk attended the ground-breaking ceremony opening… Continue reading Tesla Model 3 available for cheaper in China as pre-orders open

Adam Jonas’s Thoughts on Tesla: Facts or Fantasies?

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Published on May 29th, 2019 |

by Peter Forman (aka Papafox)

Adam Jonas’s Thoughts on Tesla: Facts or Fantasies?

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May 29th, 2019 by Peter Forman (aka Papafox)

The trading week of May 20–24 was not kind to Tesla. The stock dropped more than 20 points, which translates into a loss of some $3.5 billion in market capitalization. The primary reason for the plunge was investor reactions to a full-court press of negative comments from analysts and the media.

A central figure in the week’s vortex of negativity was Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas. Not only had he posted recent reductions in Tesla stock’s price targets, but he went so far as to host an investor’s conference call, aimed at institutional investors, to share his negative impressions of Tesla with those companies holding the lion’s share of the company’s stock (TSLA).

How well did Jonas portray Tesla’s prospects? We have a unique opportunity to judge his presentation because just one day later, on May 23, Elon Musk issued an email to employees in which he shared critical information about second quarter vehicle production and deliveries. Armed with actual data, let’s look at the claims in Jonas’s investor call and judge his points on a scale of Hit or Miss.

Adam Jonas position

Reality Check

Hit or Miss?

Tesla is burning money.

Tesla had operating cash flow of $1.4 billion in Q3 2018 and $1.2 billion in Q4 2018. Q1 of 2019 had substantial negative cash flow, but Q2 2018 deliveries in the vicinity of Q4 2018’s would produce positive cash flows again, and expectations are that Q3 2019 will be better than Q2. One quarter does not a money burner make, especially when Musk warned early that logistics of beginning international deliveries in Q1 would lead to an additional 10,000 vehicles in transit during the quarter.

Miss

Supply of Tesla vehicles is greater than demand

Tesla’s production of Model 3 in Q1 2019 was constrained by the availability of Panasonic produced cells. Message boards indicate brisk demand for all Tesla vehicles at the moment. With M3 production at 900/day, trying to push 1000/day, production is the bottleneck in Q2, not demand. Q2 increase in production is possible because of shift to standard range M3s, which use fewer cells. No standard range M3s were shipping to Europe or China in Q1. Musk’s email explained how 50,000 new orders had come in already during the first 7 weeks of Q2, suggesting continued growth of organic demand.

Miss

Nobody cares about Model Y

In Q1, Model 3 was the highest grossing vehicle of any type in California. As Jonas points out, the sedan market is dying in America. It’s being replaced with the CUV and SUV market, which is why Elon Musk predicts Model Y will outsell S,X, and 3 combined. If you review the Model Y presentation, you’ll see how Musk downplayed the vehicle (likely to avoid distracting from Model 3 orders during the long wait for Model Y). Moreover, the Tesla Semi is a commercial vehicle with extremely attractive economics and it, too, begins production in in 2020.

Miss by a mile

China is a big concern

Model 3 begins production in China late this year, and the vehicle will be tariff-free to Chinese customers, regardless of trade war status. Chinese automotive expert Michael Dunne appeared on the May 26 edition of Autoline This Week and explained how well positioned Tesla is for success in China with its factory, huge support from Shanghai’s government, and the Chinese being big fans of Tesla and Elon Musk. Meanwhile, teardown expert Sandy Munro says the China-built Model 3 SR should generate 25% gross margins. Current orders in China for long-range Model 3s with tariffs attached does not provide a good basis for judging demand for the more affordable Model 3s soon to be built in the country.

Miss

Tesla is no longer a growth story

To solve the battery cell bottleneck, installation of three fast cell production lines at GF1 and transition to local labor will help in the short run. In long run, changing to a dry electrode battery technology pioneered by recently-acquired Maxwell Technologies will allow many times the production within the existing factory space. These cheaper and longer-lasting batteries will allow Model Y and Semi to move forward with adequate cell availability and cost reductions of about 20%. The exciting lineup of future Tesla models, along with GF3 coming on line, will allow substantial growth in 2020. Musk’s email suggests that Tesla has a chance in Q2 to exceed the 90,700 vehicles delivered in Q4 2018 if production allows.

Miss by a country mile

The problem with the Jonas report on Tesla was not one or two isolated points, but rather a pattern of over-the-top negativity that completely distorts the company’s attractiveness as an investment.

The publication of these points of negativity brought up by Jonas damaged Tesla’s stock price because the public expects analysts from a firm with the stature of Morgan Stanley to be capable of somewhat accurately analyzing a company that falls within their specialty. Moreover, Jonas went after Tesla’s biggest investors with this presentation, the people who could most damage Tesla’s stock price. He called Tesla “a distressed-credit story and restructuring story,” thus sounding his alarm as loudly as possible.

The fallout for Tesla was greater than what one would expect from just a bad analyst’s opinion, however. In a note released by Jonas earlier in the week, he dropped his bear-case price target for Tesla from $97 to a mere $10 (yet didn’t change the overall price target). This amount was so far removed from reality that even Musk’s nemesis Jim Cramer called the number “really insane.” Nonetheless, that $10 target received enormous traction as reporters of every type picked up and repeated the $10 price target story. Predictably, a copycat “really insane” worst-case target soon followed, this time from Citigroup, as it gave a $36 target which was likewise picked up by reporters. Such ridiculously low targets turned out to be a truly effective form of FUD, however, and those of us who share Tesla stock information with friends and family members were deluged with questions from worried stockholders ready to sell. If the goal was to drive down the stock price, it worked.

The calamity of a seriously inaccurate appraisal of a company’s prospects reached its zenith as reporters chose to write stories about Jonas’s imaginings rather than base stories upon the far less sensational words of Tesla’s CEO, who had just indicated to employees that Q2 looked promising. The week concluded with the Associated Press sending out a story which quoted Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds as saying, “There doesn’t appear to be anything in the (product) pipeline that is going to save them.” Each retelling of the story gets worse as the ethics of click reporting continue to erode the few remaining hints of journalistic integrity still out there.

To Adam Jonas, I pose this question: Knowing what you learned from the Musk email to employees the day after your investor’s call, are you going to publicly share a significantly revised view of Tesla within a week?

A lack of action would suggest only the worst of motivations for producing such an inaccurate assessment of Tesla. Mr. Jonas, do the right thing.

About the Author

Peter Forman (aka Papafox) Peter is a writer and innovator who began buying Tesla’s stock at $28 a share and has never looked back. This former airline pilot and college professor has a passion for applying new technologies to education. More recently, he has focused on understanding the trajectory of today’s clean energy revolution. He drives a Tesla and powers 100% of his house and vehicle’s energy needs through rooftop solar panels.

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