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Tesla FUD: Tax Credit & Tesla Pricing — #TSLA

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Published on January 5th, 2019 |

by Frugal Moogal

Tesla FUD: Tax Credit & Tesla Pricing — #TSLA

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January 5th, 2019 by Frugal Moogal

The goal of this series is to examine current topics being written about Tesla [TSLA] that appear to be stirring up “Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt” (or FUD). The plan is to try to provide reasonable analysis about the validity of the claims. I generally do not link to the articles that “inspire” me to write this, as I do not wish to reward analysis I feel is poor with increased traffic. However, I will freely admit that my analysis may contain incorrect assumptions, and will do my best to acknowledge them in future articles.

If you somehow missed it, Tesla just announced Q4 deliveries totaling 90,700 vehicles, and that the company was dropping the price of its vehicles by $2,000 in response to the phaseout of the federal EV tax credit.

The stock price responded by dropping almost 7% on the day.

There is actually a TON to unpack in Tesla’s Q4 communication, and I intend to do that soon, but I wanted to briefly touch on the believed reason for the stock hit — the price drop on the vehicles and the supposed “price ceiling” to Tesla’s current offerings.

Before I go on, my usual boilerplate paragraph about my stock: I’ll note that I remain a Tesla shareholder with a whopping 8 shares, with no intention to add to or sell that stake. I do think that Tesla remains a risky investment for a plethora of reasons that I won’t get into right now (a few people commented that they want to hear that, so I need to think about how to explain it without creating my own Tesla FUD article…), but also one that has the potential to increase astronomically in the future, which is why I decided to purchase and hold a very limited number of shares. I would not suggest anyone use the following article as their sole data point to decide to invest nor sell shares in Tesla.

What Did The Market Expect?
I don’t get what the market wanted Tesla to do here.

Like it or not, the federal EV tax credit is considered to be a discount on the purchase to nearly all buyers of EVs. Every other time we have had a market where EV credits or rebates have phased out, we have generally seen a surge in demand followed by a sudden drop in demand, especially if the pricing of the vehicles remains the same.

Duh?

Between Black Friday and Christmas, Microsoft knocked $100 off its Xbox One S console, making it just $199 to get one. It was advertised as a limited time promotion, and today the same console does indeed cost $299 to purchase. Is anyone expecting Microsoft will sell the same number of Xbox One S consoles this month as it did last month? If so, they seem to have missed some lessons on supply and demand, and the impact of pricing on that demand.

Tesla’s Response
Tesla decided to offset the $3,750 reduction in the federal tax credit by reducing the cost of its vehicles by $2,000. To me, it’s a genius move for a whole variety of reasons. I’m trying to keep this article short, so here’s a quick rundown of some of the positives here:

Auto loans don’t take into account the tax credit (that has to be claimed by the individual who owns the car), meaning that this makes the monthly payments for purchasing a new car cheaper. Most people take out loans to purchase cars.
Tesla is making more than $2,000 in profits off all of its cars. It can reduce the price and still make money.
According to Tesla, more than ¾ of Model 3s sold were to new customers, not reservation holders, meaning that new Model 3 demand was more than 45,000 vehicles. Considering that Tesla hasn’t started international deliveries, that means that demand remained very strong. Some of that demand may have been moved up due to the tax credit expiring, but not all of it.

Let’s also remember, Tesla hasn’t pulled several demand levers for the Model 3 — in particular, international sales and the start of leasing.

Conclusion
I have been accused of being a Tesla shill in the comments before, and I guess this article may continue that trend, as my conclusion for this one is simple: Not just did I expect Tesla to make a move like this (I expected it to be a slightly larger reduction, actually), but the scale of Tesla’s EV production leaves the company in a much stronger position to reduce pricing to raise demand as the tax credit begins its phaseout process than other automakers producing electric vehicles.

In short, I don’t understand the reaction here.

If you think I’m overly positive on this one, leave me a comment explaining why — the more detail, the better. I intend to write a longer article soon unpacking how the tax credit affects demand, and different demand levers that I expect Tesla can and will use to keep that demand up, and I’ll do my best to incorporate and reply to any comments I get.

About the Author

Frugal Moogal A businessman first, the Frugal Moogal looks at EVs from the perspective of a business. Having worked in multiple industries and in roles that managed significant money, he believes that the way to convince people that the EV revolution is here is by looking at the vehicles like a business would.

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Tesla Has The Highest Customer Loyalty Of All Car Brands

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Published on January 9th, 2019 |

by Matt Pressman

Tesla Has The Highest Customer Loyalty Of All Car Brands

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January 9th, 2019 by Matt Pressman

Originally published on EVANNEX.

Studies demonstrate that Tesla has forged a unique bond with its customers. Last year, Consumer Reports found that Tesla has the highest rate of customer satisfaction of all car brands. Now, according to more recent research conducted by Experian, it turns out these high levels of satisfaction are translating into exceptionally high rates of customer loyalty as well.

Tesla owners tend to be a satisfied and loyal (Image via Tesla)

In fact, electric vehicle owners (regardless of brand) have a high propensity for loyalty. According to Experian, “Once dealers have customers in an EV, there’s a good chance they get them back again in the future. Electric vehicle customers are showing early signs of being a highly loyal customer segment. When EV customers return to market, 62 percent buy another EV.”

So what about industry leader Tesla?

Experian found, “Tesla owners show an even higher make loyalty rate than EV customers as a whole. More than 4 in 5 Tesla customers — 80.5 percent – buy or lease another Tesla when they return to market. Tesla has the highest level of make loyalty in the industry, ahead of Subaru at 72.1 percent and Ford at 72 percent.” Experian also found that, “Tesla led the industry with a Conquest/Defection ratio of 13.77 to 1.”

Electric vehicle market share based on US EV sales in the first half of 2018 (Source: Experian)

While Tesla plans to introduce a lower-priced Model 3 option, its current vehicle lineup remains relatively expensive. Therefore, it’s no wonder EV owners tend to be a well-heeled crowd. Experian reports that, “individuals with higher education and high home values are currently more likely to purchase EVs.” Furthermore, if trends start in places like California, EV fever could be spreading. According to Experian, EV buyers “are also more likely to be found [see chart above] on the west coast.”

These insights into electric vehicles (and industry leader Tesla) are definitely encouraging. Experian concludes, “the auto industry should be enthusiastic about the electric vehicle segment’s future … as battery costs continue to come down, EV [pricing] will more closely mimic today’s vehicles. All things being equal, customers are likely to opt for a more environmentally friendly option in the future and eventually, the scales will tip in the favor of EVs.”

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Tesla Model 3 Used Car Stats As Depressing For BMW & Audi As New Car Sales

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Published on January 6th, 2019 |

by Michael Barnard

Tesla Model 3 Used Car Stats As Depressing For BMW & Audi As New Car Sales

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January 6th, 2019 by Michael Barnard

The Tesla Model 3 has many superlatives associated with it. The most pre-orders of any production car ever. The highest volume sales of any small or midsize luxury sedan in the USA. The highest revenue for any car sold in the USA for the last 4–6 months of 2018. The fewest buttons, switches, and dials of any car.

But there’s another superlative.

The fewest used cars available. By an order of magnitude.
Autotrader is the largest online used car site in the USA. A search for second-hand Tesla Model 3s on January 1st found 78 Tesla Model 3s for sale on the site. There were roughly 140,000 Tesla Model 3s sold in 2018 when you include likely December sales per earlier CleanTechnica reporting.

78 used cars represents about 0.06% of the Tesla Model 3s on the road. That number doesn’t seem that high.

Using the November sales chart, I also looked at the cars which ranked just above and below the Model 3 in January–November 2018 sales volume. Checking for used 2018–2019 Chevy Malibus on Autotrader, there are over 1,000 for sale right now, and there were only a few more of them built and sold in 2018 than the Model 3. There are 986 used 2018–2019 Ford Focuses available for sale right now, 13 times more than Tesla Model 3s, with fewer built and sold. That’s about 0.8% that are up for resale.

There’s an order of magnitude fewer Tesla Model 3s for sale than cars which sold in equal numbers in 2018 in the USA.

But what about its closest competitors, small, luxury, performance sedans such as the BMW 3 Series and the Audi A4? They have similar price points and target demographics, so are arguably better to compare to the Model 3 than either the Malibu or Focus.

New Tesla Model 3s outsold new 3 Series and A4s by a large margin in 2018 in the USA, three to four times the sales volume. But going back to Autotrader and looking solely at used 2018–2019 cars for sale is instructive. There are over 1,000 BMW 3 Series available right now for those model years. There are 502 Audi A4s available. There are 7 to 13+ more used new-model BMWs and 6 times as many Audi A4s for sale as Tesla Model 3s.

Let’s run the numbers a slightly different way. If all else were equal, the number of cars available used should be aligned to the number of cars sold. The ratios should be relatively close. There were more BMW 3 Series sold than Audi A4s and there are more available used. The ratio isn’t perfect, as new is roughly 4:3 and used is in the range of 2:1, but the principle applies.

When we look at Tesla vs BMW, we see a ratio of 3:1 new and 1:13 used. Really, the way to look at this is that potentially 40 times as many BMW owners are dumping their new 3 Series as Tesla owners are doing with their Model 3s. Audi is 4:1 and 1:7. There are about 30 times as many Audi owners dumping their A4s as Tesla owners.

There were certainly anecdotal stories of people who bought the two-wheel drive as soon as they could but then put down the more serious money for the AWD or Performance version when it was made available. And there are certainly people who were speculating on the Model 3, intending to make a fast buck by flipping it to people who wanted one.

But what about mileage? Well, a scan of the mileage on Autotrader found a range from 11 miles to 14,000 miles on the cars. There were some that were obviously bought to flip second hand with 11 to 45 miles on them. There were some in the 1,000–2,000 range. The majority were in the mid-1,000s. There were a handful over 10,000, which is reasonable given annual mileage averages in the USA are about 13,500.

Did some people buy to flip? Yes, and no surprise. They probably did okay in June, but wouldn’t be doing okay today with Tesla running 6,000–7,000 a week. Speculation on the Model 3 for quick flips is more a thing of the past, although obviously this does suggest that resale value remains high. Some of the variance can be explained by high demand for used Model 3s, meaning that used inventories remain low.

But really, the statistics show that Tesla Model 3 owners are very happy with their cars and keeping them. Demand is very strong for the newest Tesla. For BMW and Audi? Not so much.

About the Author

Michael Barnard is Chief Strategist with TFIE Strategy Inc. He works with startups, existing businesses and investors to identify opportunities for significant bottom line growth and cost takeout in our rapidly transforming world. He is editor of The Future is Electric, a Medium publication. He regularly publishes analyses of low-carbon technology and policy in sites including Newsweek, Slate, Forbes, Huffington Post, Quartz, CleanTechnica and RenewEconomy, and his work is regularly included in textbooks. Third-party articles on his analyses and interviews have been published in dozens of news sites globally and have reached #1 on Reddit Science. Much of his work originates on Quora.com, where Mike has been a Top Writer annually since 2012. He's available for consulting engagements, speaking engagements and Board positions.

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Tesla’s Software-First Approach Foreshadows The Future Of Cars

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Published on January 6th, 2019 |

by Guest Contributor

Tesla’s Software-First Approach Foreshadows The Future Of Cars

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January 6th, 2019 by Guest Contributor

Originally published on EVANNEX.
By Charles Morris

Everyone knows that Tesla is an innovative company, and almost everyone knows that its cars don’t need gasoline. But as Lou Steinberg points out in a recent article entitled “Some of the Greatest Innovations are not What You Think,” electrification is not Tesla’s only innovation, and when it comes to competing in the global auto market, it may not even be the most important.

Tesla’s center stack touchscreen display in the Model S (Image: Tesla)

In Steinberg’s view, Tesla’s most important innovations stem from the fact that it’s the first company to approach cars the Silicon Valley way: as a software problem. Steinberg perceived the power of “tin wrapped software” as the CTO of Symbol Technologies. “Symbol built hardware, but was able to use software to tune how it worked in different environments. Flexible software meant that the hardware behaved one way in a hospital (long-battery life for a 12-hour shift) and another way in a retail store (higher-power radios to overcome dead zones).”

“I bought the Model S because it was the first time I had ever seen someone treat a car as a software problem,” Steinberg writes. Sure, modern cars are full of software, but their builders are hardware companies, and automotive hardware is a mature market with few opportunities to disrupt, or even to differentiate their products.

Tesla has changed everything — for the first time, a car can improve itself over time via software upgrades. “Aside from navigation maps, all of my cars [he has owned many] had features that were largely fixed on the day they left the factory,” says Steinberg. “Not my Tesla. Every month, it gets software updates that make it better. It learned how to park. Then it learned how to do it better. It opens my garage door when I come home. It improved its self-driving. It improved the stereo. It added anti-theft features. After one year, my car is safer and better to drive than the day I bought it. My Tesla driving experience keeps improving through patches and updates.”

Tesla owner describes why he loves the car’s software updates: “It’s the feeling that your car is always new.” (YouTube: Tesla)

Steinberg vows never again to buy “a car whose capabilities are frozen in time,” and once they’ve experienced the ever-improving Tesla ownership experience, most drivers probably feel the same.

Another important but overlooked innovation that the Sages of Silicon Valley have made is to free up constrained resources. The Tesla Rangers — mobile teams that perform minor service at customer locations — provide an example. Why are the Rangers such an innovation? Because they free up resources at service centers. “The most constrained real estate at a service center is in the service bays,” Steinberg writes. “You can hire more technicians if demand increases, but the service bays are a big capital investment that can’t be flexed up and down. The second most valuable real estate at a showroom is in the parking lot. You can fill it with cars to sell, but only if you don’t have a lot of cars you already sold taking up space while waiting for a service bay to become available. Cars waiting for service, especially warranty service, crowd out cars that are ready to be sold and delivered. Add to this the fact that many owners will ask for a loaner car, and you need a fleet of loaners. It all costs money.”

Thus, the Tesla Rangers represent not just a convenience for customers (though they certainly are that), but also “a way to optimize constrained resources and save capital. It frees up the parking lots to sell and deliver cars.”

And the third and greatest innovation of all? Tesla isn’t selling just cars. There’s a saying in the software business: “People don’t buy software, they buy a roadmap.” In other words, customers, especially large companies, don’t buy software based only on what it can do today, but based on their confidence that it will continue to get better and keep up with future needs. Once you conceive of a car as software, the capabilities you can offer to customers are almost unlimited.

Tesla uses the phone as a “key” for the Model 3 (Image via Tesla)

“Tesla isn’t limited to promoting the current features,” writes Steinberg. “Tesla and Musk are either lauded for offering a vision or panned for over-promising, but they offer a glimpse of what your car will be able to do in the future. Not another car you have to purchase again…the very same car you buy today. My car knows how to park, and will someday have full autonomous driving. Why shouldn’t it drop me off in front of the store and then find a parking space on its own?”

Many stock market observers believe that the high valuation of TSLA stock has a lot to do with investors’ belief that the company will someday offer full self-driving capability, an innovation that could have even greater implications for mobility and society than electrification. And it’s not just the stock price. A Mercedes or a BMW is a great automobile, but once you buy it, it’s going to be the same vehicle you bought until the day you sell it. If, instead, you could have a machine that’s going to get better and better, and eventually be able to drive itself, how much more would you be willing to pay?

“By treating cars as software, and constantly pushing updates, Tesla can command a premium price today by selling the roadmap,” concludes Steinberg. “Other manufacturers may innovate incrementally, but as the character ‘bored Elon Musk’ once tweeted, ‘Incremental innovation is really just adjusting for inflation.’”

About the Author

Guest Contributor is many, many people. We publish a number of guest posts from experts in a large variety of fields. This is our contributor account for those special people. 😀

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The “Tesla Stretch” — Proving Car Buyers Will Pay More For A Tesla Model 3

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Published on January 9th, 2019 |

by Matt Pressman

The “Tesla Stretch” — Proving Car Buyers Will Pay More For A Tesla Model 3

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January 9th, 2019 by Matt Pressman

Originally published on EVANNEX.

The Tesla Model 3 is turning out to be an electric car that’s seducing car buyers across multiple market segments. According to a CleanTechnica report, “45% of current electric car drivers plan to buy a Tesla next.” Okay, that’s understandable. Non-Tesla EV drivers might be interested in a Tesla. That said, it’s extraordinary how many gas-powered car owners, from vastly different auto segments, are transitioning to Teslas.

Tesla Model 3 (Photo by Zach Shahan, CleanTechnica)

Bloomberg reports, “When Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk first revealed the Model 3 at a late-night party in March 2016, the vehicle was expected to compete in the premium sedan market against the likes of Audi, BMW, Lexus and Mercedes. Instead, owners of mass market cars like the Honda Accord and Toyota Prius are opening their wallets for the sedan, signaling that the vehicle is pushing Tesla beyond its luxury niche and more into the mainstream.” Buyers are also coming from the BMW 3 Series, and surely other luxury cars, but luxury car sales are not down much and Tesla appears to be pulling much more from lower classes.

“For Earl Banning, getting behind the wheel of a Tesla meant spending more than he ever had on a car. The 43-year-old Air Force neuropsychologist from Dayton, Ohio, ponied up $54,000 for a Model 3, figuring he would save on gas and keep the car for a long time. It was almost double what he had previously paid for a fully loaded Honda Accord,” reports Bloomberg.

The most common cars traded in for a Model 3 according to Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk (Chart by Bloomberg)

Banning says, “I call it the Tesla Stretch — everyone I’ve met who owns a Model 3 is willing to spend more to get into a Model 3.” For example, a former Nissan Altima owner, 36-year-old Eric Snapat, spent nearly $60,000 on his new Tesla. And 26-year-old Robert Preston actually charges $155 a day to rent out his Tesla on Turo to help pay for his new Model 3. “Every weekend I have someone renting it,” Preston said.

“Tesla recently said that more than half the trade-ins for the Model 3 were from vehicles priced below $35,000. And there are signs that the sedan’s popularity is adding [some] pressure on rival carmakers. … In October, sales of cars such as the Accord and Prius continued to slip as deliveries of the Model 3 ramped up,” according to Bloomberg.

⇒ Related: Honda Accord Sales & Civic Sales Drop 80,000 In 2018

A Tesla Model 3 charging in Florida. (Photo by Zach Shahan, CleanTechnica)

“Tesla has captured lightning in a bottle,” said Jeremy Acevedo, manager of industry analysis at researcher Edmunds. “It’s hard to even benchmark the Model 3 against other cars because it’s broken the mold in so many ways.”

⇒ Tesla Model 3 = Lightning, Model Y = Thunder

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VW & GM Exec Statements on Electric Vehicles & Tesla Leave Me Dizzy, Confused, Laughing

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Published on January 9th, 2019 |

by Matt Pressman

VW & GM Exec Statements on Electric Vehicles & Tesla Leave Me Dizzy, Confused, Laughing

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January 9th, 2019 by Matt Pressman

Originally published on EVANNEX.

Big Auto’s executives have a long history of taking shots at Tesla. Now, two industry giants, VW and GM, have decided to dismiss the Silicon Valley automaker altogether and claim they’ll (instead) lead the EV revolution. Yet, their braggadocio, somehow, doesn’t seem to add up.

Two of the industry’s biggest heavyweights, VW and GM, have dialed up their bold claims surrounding electric car efforts. VW has lineup of fully electric vehicles coming in next few years.

Larry Vellequette reported in November (via Automotive News Europe) that Volkswagen’s rhetoric about electric vehicles is “the direct result of a strategy shift that came after getting caught cheating on diesel-emissions testing.” Deflecting attention from the dieselgate scandal and recent cartel allegations, VW’s corporate communications vacillate wildly from reluctant to boastful when it comes to the company’s EV plans.

In a puzzling interview with VW’s Herbert Diess shared in that article, the company’s CEO downplayed the viability of the electric car, explaining, “if you are still driving far distances, 20,000 or 30,000 miles [per year], it’s probably not the right car.” And with EVs, Deiss adds, “you’re driving on coal instead of oil, and it doesn’t make sense.” [Editor’s note: What????] That said, he concedes, “Renewable energy is a must… [so] we will be very big in electric cars worldwide because we are very strong in China.”

A look back at VW’s dieselgate scandal, which likely sparked the company’s recent PR offensive touting its “support” for EVs (YouTube: The Verge)

Deiss admits, “[Electric car] sales are picking up. It’s not all over the place, but West Coast, if you go to a parking lot, you see already a decent mix of electric cars there. Most of them are probably Teslas, but what’s happening now is that the cars become so much better.” He continues, “I think we have the best setup strategy for the electric vehicles to come. … We will be aggressive on the pricing. We will be much lower than Tesla.”

Meanwhile, GM’s former bigwig, Bob Lutz, is consistently appearing on financial news shows in order to trash-talk Tesla. Recently, he claimed, “Tesla is headed to the graveyard.” Do GM’s top brass feel the same way? Jamie Lareau (via Detroit Free Press) spoke with Mike Abelson, GM’s vice president of global strategy, for his take on EVs. He reports, “GM’s gasoline-powered cars and trucks will be the main revenue stream for the company for at least the next two decades,” according to Abelson. [Editor’s note: What?????]

GM has no plans for electric pickup trucks.

Yet, contradicting himself, Abelson adds, “We do believe we’ll lead the industry in EVs sometime in the next decade or so.” [Editor’s note: What???????]

If that’s the case, will GM, perhaps, battle Tesla in market segments like pickup trucks. No. Abelson says, “There will not be any AV/EV pickups.” [Editor’s note: OMG]

Nevertheless, it’s reported that “GM is exploring all fronts in future mobility, including talking to companies working on flying cars.”

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Highlights From Elon Musk’s Visit To Shanghai For #Tesla Gigafactory 3 Groundbreaking Ceremony

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Published on January 7th, 2019 |

by Steve Hanley

Highlights From Elon Musk’s Visit To Shanghai For #Tesla Gigafactory 3 Groundbreaking Ceremony

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January 7th, 2019 by Steve Hanley

Elon Musk was in Shanghai on January 7 to participate in the groundbreaking ceremony for Gigafactory 3, Tesla’s first gigafactory outside the US. Not surprisingly, Elon took to Twitter to celebrate the event … just a couple of hours after we published about the news. But there are a few things you might have missed if you caught our early coverage and didn’t keep refreshing for updates throughout the past 24 hours..

After the ceremony, Musk spoke to the local press and said that he is very impressed with the speed and quality of work possible in Shanghai. He made particular reference to the fact that a large multi-bay Supercharger location was completed in just 12 days last year, the quickest of anywhere in the world. He indicated the factory building would be finished by mid-year and would start producing cars by the end of 2019 if everything goes according to plan. (When has that ever happened?)

He was at pains to explain that Tesla is absorbing the tariffs imposed by China on US-built cars. Gigafactory 3 — which will have a capacity of 500,000 cars a year — will focus on manufacturing the more affordable versions of the Model 3 and later the Model Y so that Chinese customers can begin driving sustainable cars as soon as possible. The factory will also build cars for export to other Asian markets.

The more expensive versions of the Model 3 — Long Range, All Wheel Drive, Performance upgrade — will continue to be manufactured in America. Those are higher profit vehicles and Musk says the company will need to sell lots of them to help pay for the new factory. He encouraged people in China to place their orders for the US-made cars to help fund the Shanghai facility.

Tesla has learned much from building Model 3 production lines in the United States, and those lessons will be applied to bring the new Shanghai factory online as soon as possible. Musk also called upon local engineering talent to join the Tesla team, saying a junior engineer today could wind up taking his job someday, as the possibilities for advancement within the company are virtually unlimited. For more on Musk’s remarks, check out the video below.

About the Author

Steve Hanley Steve writes about the interface between technology and sustainability from his home in Rhode Island and anywhere else the Singularity may take him. His motto is “Democracy is socialism.” You got a problem with that?

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Tesla Model Y Price Rumors & Specs, + Urban Supercharger Specs

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Published on January 8th, 2019 |

by Steve Hanley

Tesla Model Y Price Rumors & Specs, + Urban Supercharger Specs

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January 8th, 2019 by Steve Hanley

Tesla has been quiet about the upcoming Model Y, probably not wanting to hurt demand for the Model 3. As far as anyone knows, the Model Y will be based on the Model 3 platform, which makes perfect sense. Beyond that, very little hard information about Tesla’s compact SUV has made it into the public domain. Will it have falcon-wing doors? Range? Price? All of that information has stayed locked away inside the company. …

Until now.

“The Tesla Show” says it got dished some inside information from “a little birdie” and shared that with the world in a tweet on January 6.

There are some interesting tidbits in there. First, the Model Y will be all-wheel drive only (which was expected if not previously stated). A base price of $35,000 to $40,000 tracks nicely with prices for the Model 3, which will start at $35,000 (eventually) for the standard range version. The dual motor option on the Model 3 is a $5,000 upgrade.

Second, Tesla may be planning a Hardware 3.5 upgrade that will add more cameras and radar to the existing Hardware 2 package. Hardware 3 will include the new Tesla-designed and -engineered self-driving computer that is 1,000 times faster than the Nvidia Drive PX2 used in the cars being manufactured today. It will be interesting to see how the extra inputs affect the Autopilot experience and whether they can be retrofitted to existing cars.

As to whether the new information is accurate or not, Ryan McCaffrey, host of the “Ride The Lighting” podcast, confirmed that the same “little birdie” provided him with the same supposed insider scoop. The official reveal of the Model Y is expected sometime in the spring, possibly in March.

Urban Charger Details
Also on January 6, Tesla aficionado Vincent tweeted a photo that provides details about Tesla’s Urban Charger, which is more powerful than a home charger but not as powerful as the Superchargers that accompany major transportation routes.

Twitter user David Rees added these details and a tweak on the use of ‘new’ in the tweet: “Those aren’t that new, Tesla has been using these stalls for a while, around Sept 2017. They are called ‘urban’ Superchargers and max out at 72 kW. The original style pairs two plugs to one cabinet capable of 330A continuous, max 120 kW per plug. Urban plugs always deliver 72 kW max, where the others you can start off slower if someone else is paired off the same cabinet. Always look for an unpaired plug at the 120 kW stations for max charge rate! They are almost always clearly marked 1A/1B, 2A/2B, etc.” Oh, I actually wrote about these Urban Superchargers back in September 2017.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk indicated recently that Tesla is concentrating on bringing chargers like the one shown above to urban areas, particularly apartment and condo dwellers who do not have easy access to private chargers. Not every Tesla owner has a private garage. Expanding the charging infrastructure will be critical for sales to reach as many potential customers as possible.

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A Look Inside The Tesla Cold Weather Testing Facility

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Published on January 7th, 2019 |

by Steve Hanley

A Look Inside The Tesla Cold Weather Testing Facility

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January 7th, 2019 by Steve Hanley

All automakers test their cars in cold conditions to see how freezing temperatures affect their operation. Tesla is no exception. It uses a cold temperature testing facility out in the middle of nowhere about 2 hours south of Fairbanks, Alaska. It is a private compound used by the military to test tanks and armored personnel carriers, among other things. Tesla has created its own test track at the site, complete with twisty roads, steep hills, and skid pads that allow its engineers to learn how well the cars handle slippery roads and Arctic conditions.

Photo by Kyle Field, CleanTechnica

Cold weather and electric cars are not friends. Batteries are like people. They are happiest when the temperature outside is between 70 and 90 degrees Fahrenheit. Cold batteries don’t charge or discharge as fast as they do when they are warm. Heating systems eat up a lot of battery power. All those range estimates you see quoted by the EPA are determined by tests conducted indoors at room temperature with the heater and air conditioner turned off.

When a CNET Road Show writer visited the area — the first journalist allowed inside — he found the Model S P100D he was given to make the drive from Fairbanks to Delta Junction where the testing facility is located got about 30% less range than expected. Some of that may be attributed to the Pirelli Sottozero winter tires fitted to the car. Some of it may be due to snow and ice on the road surface. And some of it may be down to the heater working overtime to keep Stevens warm during the journey.

Most people who have driven an electric car in sub-freezing weather would probably not be surprised by the results. My 2015 Nissan LEAF also gets about 1/3 less range when the mercury in my thermometer goes into hibernation during the winter. It’s a common occurrence with all electric cars, one that the manufacturers seldom talk about at the time of sale.

During his time in Alaska, Stevens had a chance to drive a Model S, a Model X, and a Model 3 through their paces on snow and ice. For some of the driving, Tesla engineers turned off the stability and traction control systems that normally protect drivers from hazardous conditions, something owners cannot do themselves. Here’s some of what he had to say:

“With everything off, I cut onto the freshly groomed field of snow at 65 mph and jerked the wheel left and right and then was instantly thrown into one heck of a tank slapper. The car swerved back and forth as I frantically sawed at the wheel to keep up. I tried this maneuver a number of times and maybe caught it twice, but that’s with a decade of high-speed ice driving experience at my disposal. While I mean no offense to your average Model S owner, your average Model S owner would have spun every time.

“Re-enabling the car’s stability and traction controls took a quick reboot and then I went and tried it again. Same speed, same field of snow, and try as I might I couldn’t get the car to spin. I yanked the wheel left and right with all the finesse of a thoroughly endorphin’d Crossfitter and yet the car always kept itself inline, moving quickly enough to miss the imaginary moose, then calmly settling itself.”

Stevens explains that all Teslas have open differentials — the kind that deliver power to the wheel with the least traction. Older readers may recall this is what made driving your mom’s Pontiac station wagon on snowy roads such a challenge. But Tesla uses the brakes on each individual wheel to stop them from spinning. Combining that with precise control of how much torque each motor delivers permits the car to tame the most outrageous slides.

A video popped up on YouTube recently of a Model 3 traveling on an icy road with Autopilot activated. That’s not a smart thing to do — ever! — but you don’t have to be smart to own a Tesla. The car was on the brink of spinning out completely when the Autopilot caught the skid and returned the car to a safe path.

The driver, Eric Lapierre, noted that he didn’t touch the wheel at all. Of course, he shouldn’t have been using Autopilot at all in those conditions, but he proudly posted the video from his dash cam anyway.

Stevens was impressed by how the Model S and the Model X handled the snow and ice. A 30% slope coated with ice down center “resulted in a slow and occasionally unnerving but ultimately clean ascent. With the e-differentials disabled (again, not something you can do at home), the thing started the climb, spun its tires, and then promptly (and rapidly) skidded backwards down the hill.”

The Model 3 Performance, however, blew him away with its ability to tolerate extreme slip angles without spoiling the fun until the car was poised to tip over the edge into a full fledged disaster. “In Track Mode, the Model 3 will let you hang the tail way, way out, getting some properly lurid drifts going before it cuts the fun. Yes, it will cut the fun if you get things too far out of shape, killing the car’s power and automatically deploying the brakes at the appropriate corner. But, the car gives you an awful lot of rope to hang yourself with before it kindly and reliably steps in to lift the noose from your neck.

“By building the Model 3’s control software in-house, Tesla’s engineers have even more ability to vector torque from front to rear both under acceleration and under regenerative deceleration. This means the car can react more quickly and more precisely, again letting you push it that much further before cutting in.” The Tesla engineers told Stevens an upgrade to Track Mode is in the works that will allow the driver to manually adjust the torque split between the front and rear motors. First we’ve heard of that!

Finally, Stevens addressed some issues Model 3 owners in cold climates have experienced — things like frozen door handles and windows that won’t go down when the world outside is frozen. Tesla has addressed the latter with a software update, but a solution to the door handle issue is still in the works. Stevens says, “Every new model has some teething problems. It’s how the company reacts that’s the important thing.”

How Tesla reacts is one of the greatest assets the company has. It doesn’t hide behind legalese or excuses. It steps up and addresses problems in a forthright and proactive manner, often with direct responses from the CEO on Twitter. What was his name again? …

When something goes wrong and a company stands behind its product, that’s a bonus that costs the manufacturer next to nothing but can be priceless to the customer.

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Porsche Claims Tesla Owners Are Leading A Taycan Sales Stampede

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Published on January 7th, 2019 |

by Steve Hanley

Porsche Claims Tesla Owners Are Leading A Taycan Sales Stampede

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January 7th, 2019 by Steve Hanley

At the LA Auto Show last month, Klaus Zellmer, president of North American operations for Porsche, had some interesting things to say to Tim Stevens of CNET Road Show. His company has had a “pretty amazing” level of interest in its upcoming Taycan 4 door electric sports car, he said.

In particular, the number of people willing to plunk down a $2,500 deposit to pre-order one has exceeded all expectations. “If all the people [who preordered] buy this car, then we are sold out for the first year,” Zellmer said, and 20,000 sales would make the Taycan one of Porsche’s best selling models. However, it would not approach the ~50,000 Tesla Model S sedans sold each year.

“More than half of the people that are signing up for the Taycan have not owned or do not own a Porsche,” Zellmer added, which led to this question: What car do they own? “Typically, if we look at our source of business — people coming from other brands — it’s Audi, BMW, or Mercedes. The no. 1 brand now is Tesla. That’s pretty interesting, to see that people that were curious about the Tesla for very good reasons obviously don’t stop being curious.”

Is that surprising? Maybe not. Most existing Tesla owners are early adopters. If they jumped on the Tesla bandwagon early, why wouldn’t they want to try the new new thing? Especially in California, where car culture has been dominant ever since Harry Truman took the train back to Independence, well heeled buyers are always on the hunt for what’s next.

Green Car Reports speculates that current Tesla owners may be attracted to the Taycan’s 800 volt drivetrain, which can reportedly recharge in half as much time as a Tesla (assuming you can find an ultra-fast charger). Or they may think the Porsche will offer a more luxuriously appointed interior.

Is Porsche worried that the Taycan — and its soon to appear first cousin, the Cross Turismo — will compete head to head with Audi models that are based on the same chassis? Not really. The Audi e-tron GT will share a chassis with the Taycan, but people will be able to tell the difference by the way the two cars drive.

“When it’s about being competitive,” he said, “it’s something that really has to fully speak Porsche. If you drive a Macan, you know that we share a platform [with Audi], but it’s a completely different car. And that’s exactly what has to happen and I’m sure Audi has followed a same path.”

Should Tesla be worried that some of its current owners may make the switch to an all-electric Porsche? Probably not. There are tens of millions of people who would give their eye teeth to own a Tesla. The other upside is that if some of those Tesla owners do change horses midstream, that will mean more pre-owned Teslas for sale to those who don’t have the resources to buy a new one.

When it comes to the electric car revolution, the more competitive cars available — new and used — the better for us and for the Earth.

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