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Tesla Model S Resale Values = Best In Class

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Published on January 6th, 2019 |

by Guest Contributor

Tesla Model S Resale Values = Best In Class

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January 6th, 2019 by Guest Contributor

Originally published on EVANNEX.
By Charles Morris

It’s always fun to talk about Elon Musk’s tweets and tokes, but when it comes to predicting Tesla’s long-term financial prospects, savvy observers understand that the two metrics that matter are the demand for the company’s products and the margin of profit it earns on each unit. So, if TSLA stock slips in response to an unguarded comment by the Iron Man, consider it a buying opportunity. If you see evidence that demand for Teslas is flagging, then you can start to worry.

Tesla Model S (Image via Tesla)

One way to gauge the level of demand for an automaker’s vehicles is to examine how their value holds up in the used market. Generally speaking, vehicles that are more in demand depreciate less. So it’s encouraging to read a recent report from venture capital firm Loup Ventures, which found that the depreciation of Tesla’s Model S compares quite favorably with that of other vehicles in its class.

Based on a mathematical analysis of data on used car sales, Loup Ventures concluded that, after 50,000 miles, a typical Model S will have lost around 28% of its original value, whereas competing models in the luxury sedan class will have lost an average of 38%. Even when variables such as model year, miles driven and initial sale price were taken into account, Loup found that a Model S could be expected to retain 7% more value than its competitors.

Two things to keep in mind: higher-priced cars usually show worse depreciation than budget models; and plug-in cars in general exhibit worse depreciation than comparable gas-powered models (among other things, plug-in vehicles tend to be improved every year, and only new vehicles are eligible for federal and state incentives). Of the plug-in vehicles on the US market, Teslas show by far the least depreciation, holding their value better than the Chevy Volt, BMW i3, or Nissan LEAF.

The Loup Ventures team started by looking at an Autolist survey, which included 1.6 million data points gathered between January 2012 and August 2016. Autolist found the following amounts of depreciation after 50,000 miles:

Tesla Model S: 28%
Lexus LS 460: ~32%
Mercedes S-class: ~36%
Porsche Panamera: ~37%
BMW 7 Series: 40%
Audi A8: 40+%
Jaguar XJ: 41%

However, the researchers weren’t entirely satisfied with these numbers — during the years covered by Autolist’s survey, the supply of Teslas was limited, which could have artificially kept resale prices high. Therefore, the Loup team decided to conduct their own survey based on today’s prices.

The team examined the same auto models that were included in the Autolist survey, scraping listings of certified pre-owned cars from manufacturers’ websites. Next, they built a regression model to predict the percentage by which each car had depreciated based on model year, miles driven and MSRP. They also included a categorical variable designed to account for any inherent difference between Tesla and its competitors.

The article includes all the details of the team’s analysis, which the statistically inclined may wish to read. The researchers concede that their study wasn’t perfect – they could have used more data on non-Tesla vehicles, and the bewildering array of options available made it impossible to calculate the precise MSRP of some models. However, they believe that their conclusion that Model S depreciates at a rate 7% lower than that of competitors in its class is sound.

A look at an older Tesla Model S. (Image via Tesla Shuttle and CleanTechnica)

Be the numbers what they may, there’s plenty of anecdotal evidence that Tesla’s vehicles hold their resale value well — comments on the subject by frustrated would-be owners aren’t hard to find. But after all, these cars often seem to have minds of their own, so it shouldn’t be surprising that they stubbornly refuse to lose their value as quickly as most other luxury vehicles do. That may be bad news for car buyers with moderate budgets, but it’s a good sign for the future of the company.

About the Author

Guest Contributor is many, many people. We publish a number of guest posts from experts in a large variety of fields. This is our contributor account for those special people. 😀

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Future Model 3 rival: Volvo Polestar 2 electric performance car teased

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Polestar 2 teased
Volvo’s Polestar sub-brand has released a teaser picture and revealed a little more about its first electric car, to be called the Polestar 2. And the fledgling tech-performance brand doesn’t miss a beat in mentioning the Tesla Model 3.

The Polestar 2, which will be the first fully electric vehicle from the entire Volvo Car Group, will be a four-door fastback that offers more than 300 miles of range and more than 400 horsepower. Polestar says that it will be sold in the same range as the Model 3—which currently, given the Model 3’s price cut this week, starts at $45,200.

DON’T MISS: Volvo confirms Polestar 2 electric “sedan”

With production volume too small to justify its own from-scratch platform, Volvo/Polestar is expected to borrow from Volvo and Geely’s shared CMA architecture, which underpins the Volvo 40-Series models, such as the XC40. The design of the Polestar 2 is expected to be a little more SUV-like than Polestar is making it sound here, though—more like the Volvo 40.2 concept, a small SUV more like the BMW X4.

Volvo 40.2 concept

Polestar says that the 2 will be the first vehicle in the world to get the new Google Android HMI (human-machine interface)—essentially the successor to Android Auto—as well as the in-car version of Google Assistant.

CHECK OUT: Volvo XC40 crossover SUV to be company's first all-electric car

It will be available for sale, but the company will emphasize a subscription based on the Care by Volvo package, which wraps the vehicle plus all associated motoring costs (like insurance) into one monthly payment—and, significantly, offers the ability to trade for other Volvo models for a few days a year outside the U.S.

The 2 will go into production in early 2020 (or possibly as soon as later this year). The first electric vehicle to bear the actual Volvo badge is expected to be a version of the XC40 crossover, reaching the market later in 2020. Volvo has already suggested that model will have a range in the vicinity of 250 miles and a starting price of $35,000 and $40,000.

Polestar will borrow some ideas from the Tesla playbook while tapping into the on-the-ground resources Volvo already has in place. Vehicle purchase—or subscription—will be via a web page, but shoppers can see the vehicle at its own urban showrooms. Traditional Volvo dealerships come into play as service and logistics hubs for concierge service.

Volvo says that a full reveal of the Polestar P2 is just a few weeks away.

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VW increases sales in the US by more than four percent

The car market in the US is causing problems for many manufacturers – but not VW: despite the exhaust gas scandal, the Wolfsburg-based group is significantly increasing its US sales. By contrast, things were worse for Audi and Daimler in 2018. VW boss Herbert Diess at the Detroit Auto Show (January 2018) Friday, 04.01.2019 09:10… Continue reading VW increases sales in the US by more than four percent

BMW Group India records 13 percent YoY growth in 2018

Musk: Singapore government unwelcoming to Tesla

Musk: Singapore government unwelcoming to TeslaElon Musk tweeted that Singapore has been unwelcoming to Tesla Inc., adding to his previous assertions that the government doesn’t support electric vehicles.
The chief executive officer was responding to a tweet inquiring why Tesla wasn’t in the city-state. Musk had said in May that Tesla tried to bring its cars to Singapore but was unsuccessful because the government was “not supportive” of electric vehicles.
In a response to another tweet that Singapore’s economy is reliant on fossil fuels and that it is against electric vehicles, Musk said the Southeast Asian country could switch to solar or battery power.
While Tesla contends a lack of support from Singapore and is establishing a factory in China, Dyson Ltd. said in October it will set up its first electric-car manufacturing facility in the city-state. The plant by the British manufacturer – known for its vacuum cleaners – is expected to be completed by 2020 with a goal of rolling out its first model by 2021 as part of a 2 billion-pound ($2.5 billion) effort to expand into automobiles.
Singapore has said it supports adoption of hybrid buses and electric vehicles, in response to Musk’s earlier statements, the Today newspaper said in June, citing the country’s Land Transport Authority. In 2016, Musk contacted Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong over the case of a Tesla sedan that was taxed with a carbon surcharge in the city, the Straits Times reported.
Singapore, a tiny and densely populated nation, restricts the number of vehicles on its roads partly by controlling the number of car-ownership permits, each costing tens of thousands of dollars to bid for.
As the industry moves toward autonomous and alternative-energy vehicles, the nation has focused its efforts on mass transportation. Singapore has built a mini town replicating its public roads that will be used as a trial circuit for driverless electric buses. More than 10 companies are testing vehicles at the facility, and buses from Volvo AB are among those expected to join this year.
–
With assistance from Crystal Chui.
Read or Share this story: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/mobility/2019/01/03/musk-singapore-government-unwelcoming-tesla/38840483/

1/5 Luxury Cars Sold in USA in 2018 = Tesla Model 3 or Tesla Model S

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Published on January 3rd, 2019 |

by Zachary Shahan

1/5 Luxury Cars Sold in USA in 2018 = Tesla Model 3 or Tesla Model S

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January 3rd, 2019 by Zachary Shahan

As I just reported, the Tesla Model 3 was the #11 best selling car in the USA in 2018. As reported earlier today, in December, the Tesla Model 3 was the #1 top selling car in the USA that was produced by an American car company.

But that’s just the beginning of notable Tesla sales results.

In the month of December, Tesla sold more luxury cars than all other automakers. In fact, it accounted for approximately 30% of luxury car sales. Tesla sold more luxury sedans than BMW and Audi combined, more than Mercedes-Benz and Lexus combined. It absolutely crushed the luxury car competition.

Luxury Car Brand
December 2018 US Sales
Segment Share

Acura Cars
3,988
4%

Audi Cars
9,047
10%

BMW Cars
17,428
18%

Buick (est.)
2,388
3%

Cadillac (est.)
2,268
2%

Infiniti Cars
4,681
5%

Jaguar Cars (est.)
1,000
1%

Lexus Cars
9,551
10%

Lincoln Cars
3,044
3%

Mercedes-Benz Cars
15,482
16%

Volvo
966
1%

Tesla Cars (est.)
28,670
30%

TOTAL
94,526
100%

In terms of all luxury vehicles — SUVs and crossovers included — Tesla was #4 in December, just a bit behind Mercedes-Benz, Lexus, and BMW … despite not having a crossover/CUV on the market.

Luxury Auto Brand
December 2018 US Sales
Market Share

Acura
16,774
7%

Audi
22,765
9%

BMW
34,357
14%

Buick (est.)
20,503
8%

Cadillac (est.)
16,585
7%

Infiniti
18,065
7%

Jaguar Land Rover
14,079
6%

Lexus
35,524
14%

Lincoln
11,526
5%

Mercedes-Benz
36,254
14%

Volvo
8,826
4%

Tesla (est.)
31,970
13%

TOTAL
250,454
100%

If you look at the full year, naturally, Tesla didn’t perform as well — it spent most of the year ramping up production. Nonetheless, approximately 1 out of 5 luxury car sales were Teslas (the Model 3 or the Model S).

Luxury Car Brand
2018 US Sales
Segment Share

Acura Cars
43,842
5%

Audi Cars
97,071
11%

BMW Cars
193,465
22%

Buick Cars
33,781
4%

Cadillac Cars
31,746
4%

Infiniti Cars
48,259
5%

Jaguar Cars (est.)
11,000
1%

Lexus Cars
92,660
11%

Lincoln Cars
28,610
3%

Mercedes-Benz Cars
150,147
17%

Volvo Cars
21,456
2%

Tesla Cars (est.)
169,390
19%

TOTAL
877,585
100%

Across all types of luxury vehicles — SUVs and crossovers included — approximately 1 out of 10 sales were Tesla sales (Model 3, Model S, or Model X).

Luxury Auto Brand
2018 US Sales
Market Share

Acura
158,934
7%

Audi
223,323
10%

BMW
311,014
14%

Buick
206,863
9%

Cadillac
154,702
7%

Infiniti
149,280
7%

Jaguar Land Rover
122,626
6%

Lexus
298,310
14%

Lincoln
103,587
5%

Mercedes-Benz
315,959
14%

Volvo
98,263
5%

Tesla (est.)
197,680
9%

TOTAL
2,181,607
100%

This company is 15 years old. The Model S hit the market 6½ years ago.

Can you spell disruption? More importantly, can luxury automaker execs and shareholders spell disruption, and can they see it coming?

The good news is that these competing automakers are getting more serious about electrification — a bit more serious. The bad news (for them as well as humanity) is that they’re still moving too slowly and are years behind Tesla in critical ways.

The other good news is that Tesla is moving down market and is broadening its vehicle offerings into the crossover and pickup categories in order to pull in more buyers. The other bad news is that conventional automakers don’t seem well prepared to compete with their own highly compelling and widely available electric options in those classes. I don’t say this often, but the next few years are going to be interesting. Tesla getting up to 250,000–400,000 sales a year is an explosion, but it’s not putting any competitors into bankruptcy. Reaching 1–2 million thanks to the introduction of an electric crossover (Model Y) and electric pickup could be another story.

If you would like to buy a Tesla and want the benefits that come with a referral, feel free to use my referral code — http://ts.la/tomasz7234 — or not.

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About the Author

Zachary Shahan Zach is tryin' to help society help itself (and other species). He spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as its director and chief editor. He's also the president of Important Media and the director/founder of EV Obsession and Solar Love. Zach is recognized globally as an electric vehicle, solar energy, and energy storage expert. He has presented about cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, and Canada.

Zach has long-term investments in TSLA, FSLR, SPWR, SEDG, & ABB — after years of covering solar and EVs, he simply has a lot of faith in these particular companies and feels like they are good cleantech companies to invest in. But he offers no professional investment advice and would rather not be responsible for you losing money, so don't jump to conclusions.

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