45% of Current Electric Car Drivers Plan to Buy a Tesla Next — #CleanTechnica Report

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Published on November 11th, 2018 |

by Zachary Shahan

45% of Current Electric Car Drivers Plan to Buy a Tesla Next — #CleanTechnica Report

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November 11th, 2018 by Zachary Shahan

Below is one chapter of our new electric car driver report, Electric Car Drivers: Demands, Desires & Dreams.

You’re going to be shocked — the electric car that respondents most frequently said they were most likely to buy next (or for the first time in the case of non-EV drivers) was the Tesla Model 3. Over 100,000 reservations ($1,000 each) were placed for the car in under 24 hours — even before the car was shown. The demand was through the roof and ended up being the single biggest product reveal in history by certain key metrics. So, it is not a surprise in the least that this electric car tops the list of “expected next EV model.”

That said, the Tesla Model 3 didn’t account for the majority of answers, demonstrating that the electric car market is broad and goes far beyond the Model 3. Delving into the less desired models is perhaps more interesting than dwelling on the Model 3’s dominance, since they get much less attention but are still cars that many consumers are eager to place in their garages.

As with our first two EV owner reports, one thing that stands out is how loyal many consumers are to the brands and models they are currently driving. Many Volt drivers plan to get a Bolt, many LEAF drivers plan to get another LEAF, and many Tesla drivers are filling out their family fleets with other Tesla models or are upgrading to the latest and greatest versions of the Tesla vehicles they already have.

For example, 87% of North American Tesla drivers plan to buy another Tesla next, and that is without removing several respondents who said they didn’t intend to buy another car or had no idea what their next car would be. More specifically, 33% of them intended to get a Model 3, 17% a Model Y, 17% a Model S, 16% a Model X, and several even wrote in “Tesla Roadster” or “Tesla Pickup” since those vehicles weren’t on the list of options.

In Europe, the figure was 83%, with 34% choosing the Model 3, 28% the Model S, 13% the Model Y, 8% the Model Y, and 2% the next Roadster.

Back to North America, where 60% of plug-in hybrid respondents said they drive a Chevy Volt, the Tesla Model 3 still won the race for next EV purchase, landing 22% of responses. However, GM models took the next two podium positions, with 16% of respondents planning to buy a Chevy Bolt EV next and 9% a Chevy Volt. The Tesla Model S and Tesla Model Y each scored 4% while the Nissan LEAF and Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV each pulled in 3%. Beyond those options, the remaining responses were spread across several models, and there were again a number of respondents who simply didn’t have a guess about what they’d buy next or didn’t intend to buy another car at all.

Regarding pure electric cars, 30% of North American respondents had a Tesla (meaning 70% had something other than a Tesla) and 29% of European respondents had a Tesla. In other words, the Tesla-to-non-Tesla split was almost identical.

Non-Tesla pure-electric drivers largely drove LEAFs (43%) and Bolts (27%) in North America and LEAFs (34%) and Zoes (25%) in Europe. Other vehicles with fairly strong showings in North America were the Fiat 500e (6%), BMW i3 (5%), Ford Focus Electric (4%), VW e-Golf (4%), and Kia Soul EV (4%). In Europe, the cars at or above 4% of non-Tesla, pure-EV market share were the pure electric BMW i3 (10%), Hyundai Ioniq Electric (10%), Kia Soul EV (6%), and VW e-Golf (5%). (Note: The BMW i3 REx was categorized as a PHEV for the purposes of this report.)

Yet again, this category of drivers expected to buy a Tesla Model 3 next more than any other EV, but the hottest EV on the market pulled in only a quarter or so of responses (23% in North America and 27% in Europe). In North America, another 4% intended to get a Model S next and 4% a Model Y, but the more popular choices for these respondents’ next electric cars were the Chevy Bolt (16%) and Nissan LEAF (14%).

In Europe, other high-demand electric cars included the Nissan LEAF (12%), Hyundai Kona EV (10%), Renault Zoe (6%), BMW i3 (5%), Tesla Model S (5%), and Hyundai Ioniq EV (4%).

The following chart provides an overview of the most popular models for respondents’ expected next EV, broken down by the 6 distinct EV driver groups. There is also one chart for all responses combined, but just displaying the top 30 models.

New to this year’s edition of the report, we also surveyed non-EV drivers. We were very curious how their responses regarding their future electric car (or cars) compared to responses from EV drivers. Note that these respondents were able to choose more than one model, which presumably led some of them to include multiple top options for a single purchase while also allowing some respondents who did intend to buy more than one EV the ability to select all of their expected purchases.

In Europe, a whopping 59% of respondents expected to buy a Tesla Model 3, an impressive 40% expected to buy the Nissan LEAF (presumably boosted by a longer range version of the car expected next year), 22% expected to buy the Hyundai Ioniq EV, 21% expected to buy a Renault Zoe (currently Europe’s top selling electric car), 15% expected to by a Tesla Model S, 15% expected to buy a VW e-Golf, 12% expected to buy the Hyundai Kona EV (not yet on the market), 11% expected to buy the BMW i3, 11% expected to buy the Open Ampera-e, and 10% expected to buy a Tesla Model Y (a car that hasn’t even been shown yet).

In North America, the results were similar, but with some notable differences due to vehicle availability. The top models were the Tesla Model 3 (58%), Chevy Bolt (34%), Nissan LEAF (32%), Chevy Volt (18%), Tesla Model S (15%), and again Tesla Model Y (14%). That’s right, not as many models rose above the 10% marker, but that’s in good part because of how diversified responses were for this segment.

In terms of when they expected to “go electric,” 60% of European respondents expected to do so within the next 3 years while 57% of North American respondents expected to do so in the next 3 years.

To learn more, check out our full 2018 electric car driver report: Electric Car Drivers: Demands, Desires & Dreams.

Compare these results to last year’s report: “23–50% of Electric Car Drivers Plan to Get Tesla Model 3 Next (CleanTechnica Report).”

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About the Author

Zachary Shahan Zach is tryin' to help society help itself (and other species). He spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as its director and chief editor. He's also the president of Important Media and the director/founder of EV Obsession and Solar Love. Zach is recognized globally as an electric vehicle, solar energy, and energy storage expert. He has presented about cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, and Canada.

Zach has long-term investments in TSLA, FSLR, SPWR, SEDG, & ABB — after years of covering solar and EVs, he simply has a lot of faith in these particular companies and feels like they are good cleantech companies to invest in. But he offers no professional investment advice and would rather not be responsible for you losing money, so don't jump to conclusions.

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Tesla — “Apple Of Cars” — Entering Its Golden Age

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Published on November 10th, 2018 |

by Guest Contributor

Tesla — “Apple Of Cars” — Entering Its Golden Age

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November 10th, 2018 by Guest Contributor

Originally published on EVANNEX.
By Charles Morris

Comparisons between Tesla and Apple are nothing new, but with the Silicon Valley automaker poised for a new wave of growth, it’s a good time to revisit the parallels between the two disruptive companies. A recent article from ARK Investment Management explains the similarities in eerie detail.

In 2007, Apple had already existed for three decades, but beginning in that year, a wave of new products — the iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, and App Store — catapulted the company into a new dimension, and caused revenue and market cap to grow tenfold.

Before blastoff, Apple was selling computers, which were widely regarded as a commodity product, mainly to a few niche markets such as audio/video professionals, people who resented Bill Gates and people who just had to be different. However, the company’s strategy of vertical integration and consumer focus — precisely the opposite of the business model that PC makers were pursuing — allowed it to charge premium prices and command fanatical customer loyalty.

ARK Invest Founder and CEO, Cathie Wood, talks about Tesla and points out similarities with Apple (Source: Yahoo Finance)

The parallels to Tesla should already be apparent, but looking at Tesla’s position in 2018, they become even more striking. ARK’s analysts see “the outlines of another Apple in the making,” and point out that “Tesla resembles Apple in three key areas: a strategy of vertical integration, an imminent product inflection, and a business model transitioning from hardware to services.”

Apple’s strategy of vertically integrating hardware, software, services, and retail was very much a contrarian one. In 2007, conventional wisdom was that companies should focus on “core competencies.” Apple’s competitors all specialized in one layer of the stack. However, in a time of rapid innovation, vertical integration can enable a company to get a head start on the rest of an industry by developing key enabling technologies in-house. To give just one example, Apple was able to create the first multi-touch smartphone because it created its own multi-touch system, something no other company was anywhere close to developing.

Vertical integration similarities (Source: ARK Investment Management)

“Tesla picks up on Apple’s vertical integration strategy but takes it further,” write the ARK analysts. “In addition to hardware, software, and retail, Tesla also owns and operates manufacturing facilities as well as a global Supercharger network. Vertically integrating battery pack production at its Gigafactory is why Tesla is the only high-volume EV manufacturer today. Had Tesla waited for the supply chain to catch up, it wouldn’t have been able to launch and scale the Model 3 for years. In our view, this is a key reason why no automaker has released a viable competitor to the Model 3 thus far and why no company will be able to do so until 2020 at the earliest.”

Apple’s spectacular 2007 to 2012 growth was driven by the release of the iPhone, iPad, and the App Store in quick succession. As is the case with Tesla, Apple’s vision of the products it wanted to build was often ahead of current computing, microprocessor, and battery performance. Things started to take off around 2007 because the enabling technologies to build a high-performance handheld computer finally became available. “Having built up decades of software and hardware expertise, Apple was positioned to seize this opportunity and create the blueprint for modern mobile computing,” notes ARK.

Falling cost of lithium-ion batteries (Source: ARK Investment Management)

Like Mac computers in the early 1990s, Tesla’s vehicles haven’t broken into the mainstream, because they are simply too expensive. The main reason for this is battery costs, which are dropping rapidly. ARK estimates that the cost of lithium-ion batteries will fall below $100/kWh, achieving cost parity with gasoline cars, by 2022. Elon Musk has said that he expects to reach this tipping point by the end of 2018.

This cost decline is a big deal, to put it mildly. Once EVs reach cost parity, there will simply be no technical reason for anyone to build fossil fuel cars anymore (although financial and political reasons are likely to keep them on life support for quite a while). “Tesla has spent more than a decade preparing for this moment and, in our view, has the most compelling EV pipeline of any company,” says ARK. “The Tesla Model 3 and Model Y (a crossover SUV) have the potential to catapult EVs into the mainstream, much like the one-two punch from the iPhone and iPad in mobile computing.”

A look at the growth trajectory of both Apple and Tesla (Source: ARK Investment Management)

Tesla’s vertical integration — it’s selling not just a car, but an “ecosystem” of products and services — creates many income opportunities. “In the 2000s, Apple’s iPod+iTunes combination created a dual revenue stream from hardware and music,” ARK notes. “Today, thanks to its massive installed base of iPhones, Apple offers a range of services spanning music subscriptions, cloud storage, and app sales that generates $36 billion annually and accounts for roughly a third of Apple’s market cap. Competitors like Samsung that do not control the customer relationship generate no material revenue from services.”

In ARK’s view, every successful growth company goes through a “golden era” when the stars align and expansion takes place more rapidly than anyone could have foreseen. “For Apple, that time was from 2007 to 2012. For Tesla, we believe the golden era is just beginning.”

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Guest Contributor is many, many people. We publish a number of guest posts from experts in a large variety of fields. This is our contributor account for those special people. 😀

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California Looks To Stationary Energy Storage As A Solution To Peaker Plants

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Published on November 9th, 2018 |

by Kyle Field

California Looks To Stationary Energy Storage As A Solution To Peaker Plants

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November 9th, 2018 by Kyle Field

Central California electric utility Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) is planning to replace three aging natural gas power plants in its network with stationary energy storage installations from Tesla.

Image credit: Pexels

The approval of the plan to replace three aging peaker power plants with stationary storage installations by the California Public Utilities Commission is the culmination of an effort by the Commission to encourage PG&E to look to stationary energy storage solutions as alternatives to the aging paradigm of natural gas-fired peaker plants.

The effort to transition utilities away from natural gas plants and to stationary energy storage supports the broader state-wide push to source 100% of its electricity from zero-emission sources by 2045, which includes adding 1.3 gigawatts of energy storage to the state’s grid by 2020.

The CPUC approved a plan to install four new stationary energy storage installations in PG&E territory that would see an additional 568 megawatts of new storage being added. The installations are led by an impressive 300 MW/1,200MWh installation by Vistra Energy Corporation that will be the largest battery storage project in the world.

“Vistra is excited for this opportunity to work with PG&E, and the State of California, to develop a world-class battery project on our Moss Landing site, while building industry-leading expertise in the development and commercialization of battery storage assets,” said Curt Morgan, Vistra’s president and chief executive officer. “The Moss Landing battery project will be the largest of its kind in the world and will position Vistra as a market leader in utility-scale battery development.”

esVolta will install and operate a 75 MW / 300 MWh Hummingbird Energy Storage LLC installation in Santa Clara County in Northern California that is planned to come into servce in December of 2020. “esVolta is delighted to be selected by PG&E for the Hummingbird project. PG&E is a leading North American energy company and a key customer for esVolta, and this contract award is an important milestone for our company as we build towards our goal of assembling a large portfolio of utility-scale, advanced energy storage projects,” said Randolph Mann, president of esVolta.

A smaller distributed installation by Micronoc Inc will see an additional 10 MW of capacity being installed across several customer locations to round out the bunch.

Tesla was contracted for the second largest installation of the bunch, with a 182.5 MW facility just to the south of San Jose, California, according to Bloomberg. After the installation by Tesla, PG&E will own the facility in what could be a transition of the operation and maintenance of what are effectively peaker plants from external operators to the utility itself. This highlights yet another advantage of grid scale stationary energy storage facilities which require FAR less maintenance and ongoing care than natural gas peaker plants.

Source: Bloomberg

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Kyle Field I'm a tech geek passionately in search of actionable ways to reduce the negative impact my life has on the planet, save money and reduce stress. Live intentionally, make conscious decisions, love more, act responsibly, play. The more you know, the less you need. TSLA investor. Tesla referral code: http://ts.la/kyle623

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More Background On New Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm

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Published on November 8th, 2018 |

by Dr. Maximilian Holland

More Background On New Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm

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November 8th, 2018 by Dr. Maximilian Holland

As reported earlier today, Tesla has announced the appointment of Robyn Denholm to the chair of the board at Tesla, replacing Elon Musk who has been in the role since 2004. Denholm had already been an independent director on Tesla’s board since 2014 and has decades of experience in senior finance and strategy roles at auto, technology, and software companies.

The appointment follows Tesla’s recent settlement with the SEC, which set a timeline for putting in place an independent chair, whilst Musk remains in the role of CEO and largest investor at Tesla. Since January 2017, Denholm has been engaged as Chief Operations Officer of Telstra Corporation, and will transition out of that role and into the Tesla Chair role full time over the next 6 months.

Below, we highlight a few more aspects of Denholm’s career and invite your input on this change at the top.

Robyn Denholm

Denholm has a bachelor’s degree in economics and a master’s degree in commerce. She started her career at accountants Arthur Anderson & Co (1984–1989) before moving to Toyota Australia (1989–1996) in finance and corporate reporting roles.

She was with Sun Microsystems between 1996 and 2007 in finance and strategic planning roles, moving from the Australia offices to the US in 2001. Previous to her recent 2 years as COO at Telstra, from 2007 to 2016, Denholm was with Juniper Networks in the roles of CFO and COO.

As well as serving on the board at Tesla since 2014, she also served on the board of Swiss electrical equipment multinational ABB from 2016 to 2017, a notable cleantech leader in various ways.

Denholm has extensive experience in both finance and corporate strategy, areas of discipline that will be key to Tesla maintaining its lead in the energy transition in the coming years. Denholm’s strengths should prove complementary to Musk’s vision, creativity, and technological engineering talents.

Denholm released the following statement:

“I believe in this company, I believe in its mission and I look forward to helping Elon and the Tesla team achieve sustainable profitability and drive long-term shareholder value”

Musk added:

“Robyn has extensive experience in both the tech and auto industries, and she has made significant contributions as a Tesla Board member over the past four years in helping us become a profitable company… I look forward to working even more closely with Robyn as we continue accelerating the advent of sustainable energy.”

What do you think of the appointment? Please share your thoughts in the comments.

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Dr. Maximilian Holland Max is an anthropologist, social theorist and international political economist, trying to ask questions and encourage critical thinking about social and environmental justice, sustainability and the human condition. He has lived and worked in Europe and Asia, and is currently based in Barcelona.

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Absurd Tesla Obstructionism In Numerous US States

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Published on November 8th, 2018 |

by Matt Pressman

Absurd Tesla Obstructionism In Numerous US States

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November 8th, 2018 by Matt Pressman

Originally published on EVANNEX.

Tesla has many challenges to overcome. According to David Pogue (via Yahoo Finance), “It’s amazing that Tesla even exists. Before Tesla, the most recent successful American auto startup was Chrysler, over 90 years ago. Tesla has survived the first hard part: designing beautiful, fast, high-tech electric cars that a lot of people want and love. Now come all the other hard parts … [including] getting permission to sell them.”

A look at Tesla’s store in Walnut Creek, California (Image: Tesla)

“That’s right. In some states, Tesla is not allowed to open dealerships. I live in one of them: Connecticut. Two years ago, I added myself to the waiting list for the Tesla Model 3. This summer, I finally picked it up — in New York. As I drove it back home over the state border, I wondered why Connecticut would want to hand over all the sales tax I just paid to a rival state,” writes Pogue.

Furthermore, “in a capitalist system, it might seem counterintuitive for a state to prevent a popular company from opening a store. Aren’t new businesses good? Don’t they generate property taxes and sales tax? Don’t they mean more local jobs? Wouldn’t welcoming a big player in electric cars help these states with their environmental goals? (Connecticut’s government, for example, aims to lower emissions to 45% of 2001 levels by 2030.) Don’t we want to support American manufacturing?”

It turns out that these protectionist laws are rooted in a bit of ancient history. Pogue notes, “Back in the 1930s, the car companies established this system so that they could worry about making cars, and the franchises could worry about selling and repairing them. Early on, though, the franchisees lobbied their state governments for protection.” State governments, in turn, passed laws.

Along with Connecticut, Tesla still can’t sell cars direct-to-consumer in other states including Texas (Youtube: ReasonTV)

Fast forward to the present — are laws in certain states still banning Tesla from selling cars? Yes. Through extensive, expensive (and often successful) lobbying efforts, dealer groups are waging war on the electric carmaker. One reason could be that “the vast majority of [dealer] income comes from service … [and dealers] see the electric car as an existential threat to their service business. It’s revenue that these car dealers don’t want to give up,” says Bruce Becker, president of the Electric Vehicle Club of Connecticut.

To that end, “an electric car has no engine and no transmission. It has no spark plugs, fan belts, air filters, timing belts, or cylinder heads. It never needs oil changes, tuneups, or emissions checks. Your brake pads go years without needing replacement, too, since just lifting your foot from the accelerator slows the car down (by recharging the batteries).” It’s no wonder dealers want to boot Tesla from their state. A National Automobile Dealers Association spokesman said dealers make triple the profit from service as they do from selling new cars.

Yet for state officials, banning Tesla “is not a good long-term strategy. It’s not stopping people from buying Teslas — it’s just sending them out of state to do it.” Tesla’s general counsel, Todd Maron notes, “In all the other states in the country, in all the other countries where we operate, we’ve always been able to operate alongside dealers selling other cars. It’s just competition, and it’s completely normal. … We’re not going to give up on this issue, ever. It’s so fundamental to who we are.”

If you live in one of the blue states, you don’t have to cross state lines to buy a Tesla (Graphic credit: David Foster / Yahoo Finance)

After all, “Existing franchise dealers have a fundamental conflict of interest between selling gasoline cars, which constitute the vast majority of their business, and selling the new technology of electric cars,” CEO Elon Musk writes on Tesla’s site. “It is impossible for them to explain the advantages of going electric without simultaneously undermining their traditional [gasoline car] business.”

Where Tesla can sell cars. Map via TMC Staff

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About the Author

Matt Pressman is all about Tesla. He’s a TSLA investor, pre-ordered the Model 3, and loves driving the family's Model S and Model X company cars. As co-founder of EVANNEX, a family business specializing in aftermarket Tesla accessories, he’s served as a contributor/editor of Electric Vehicle University (EVU) and the Owning Model S and Getting Ready for Model 3 books. He writes daily about Tesla and you can follow his work on the EVANNEX blog.

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Tesla Plans To Spend Up To $3 Billion A Year On Gigafactories Over Next 24 Months

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Published on November 8th, 2018 |

by Steve Hanley

Tesla Plans To Spend Up To $3 Billion A Year On Gigafactories Over Next 24 Months

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November 8th, 2018 by Steve Hanley

In its latest 10-Q filing with the SEC, Tesla says it is planning to spend big on upgrading Gigafactories 1, 2, and 3 — up to $3 billion a year over the next two years, in fact. It also says it expects to pay for most of that from current earnings. Here’s the relevant paragraph:

“Considering the pipeline of new products planned at this point, and consistent with our current strategy of using a partner to manufacture cells, as well as considering all other infrastructure growth and expansion of Gigafactories 1, 2 and 3, we currently estimate that capital expenditures will be between $2.5 to $3.0 billion annually for the next two fiscal years. Moreover, we expect that the cash we generate from our core operations will generally be sufficient to cover our future capital expenditures and to pay down our near-term debt obligations, although we may choose to seek alternative financing sources. For example, we expect that much of our investment in Gigafactory 3 will be funded through indebtedness arranged through local financial institutions in China. As always, we continually evaluate our capital expenditure needs and may decide it is best to raise additional capital to fund the rapid growth of our business.”

That part about Gigafactory 2 is interesting. GF2 is the factory near Buffalo, New York, where Tesla intends to produce its Solar Roof tiles. We haven’t heard much about that initiative in a while. Perhaps the company is finally ready to get serious about ramping up Solar Roof production? In the recent Tesla conference call, Elon Musk highlighted that it simply takes a long time to do appropriate testing for a roof product.

In addition to increased spending on its factories, Tesla also announced recently it intends to significantly expand its service network, particularly in places outside of major urban areas. That will take even more money. According to Electrive, the company says it is leveraging what it has learned about manufacturing to date to allow it to manage its money more wisely and efficiently. Here’s more from the 10-Q filing itself:

“In 2019, we expect to continue to increase the Model 3 production rate in our Fremont factory while needing only limited additional capital expenditures. As we continue to expand our existing manufacturing capacity, introduce new products, expand our retail stores, service centers, mobile repair services and Supercharging network, we will continue to utilize our increasing experience and learnings from past and current product ramps to do so at a level of capital efficiency per dollar of spend that we expect to be significantly greater than historical levels.”

Tesla is not resting on its Q3 laurels. Moving forward, the company is looking for ways to make every dollar available to it work as efficiently as possible to support its overall mission — driving the electric car revolution forward at the fastest possible pace. Tesla has a lot on its plate and still has plenty of detractors who think it is continuing to bite off more than it can chew.

New ideas always unsettle the status quo and invite negativity from those who wish things would just continue going along they way they always have. It’s human nature. One minute you’re Kodak or Polaroid or Xerox with a hammer lock on the market, the next minute you’re out in the cold looking in. It’s painful to fall from grace. But creative destruction is one of the bedrock principles of modern capitalism. And creative destruction is what Tesla does best.

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Steve Hanley Steve writes about the interface between technology and sustainability from his home in Rhode Island and anywhere else the Singularity may take him. His muse is Charles Kuralt — “I see the road ahead is turning. I wonder what's around the bend?”

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$47.7 Million — The Cash Norwegians Have Put Down For Electric Car Reservations

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Published on November 2nd, 2018 |

by Zachary Shahan

$47.7 Million — The Cash Norwegians Have Put Down For Electric Car Reservations

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November 2nd, 2018 by Zachary Shahan

There’s no secret about it in the electric car world — Norway is the world’s premier country for viewing the electric revolution. As I wrote recently, 60% of new car sales in the country are now plug-in car sales. The country has risen up the tech adoption S-curve and has a far higher number of EV drivers per capita than any other country on earth.

Norwegians are also eagerly waiting for all the hot new electric models, to the tune of 400 million Norwegian kroner (or $47.7 million).

Well, I presume that is a low estimate. I was told by someone at the Norwegian EV association () that no one outside of Tesla really knows how many Norwegian Model 3 reservations are sitting behind tesla.com/teslaaccount. The findings reported in a Norwegian paper put the Model 3 as second in line on the reservation list, behind the Audi e-tron quattro, and I have to say that’s hard to believe.

Other popular electric models Norwegians have put down money to reserve include the Porsche Taycan (formerly called the Mission E), which is a high-end car in the range of the Model S; the Kia Niro Electric, one of the first affordable electric CUVs on the market; the Mercedes-Benz EQC, a fully electric SUV entry from the well known German brand; the Jaguar I-PACE, a CUV/SUV that is helping to lead Jaguar into an electric future even thought it doesn’t quite stack up to the similarly priced Model X in several regards; and the BMW iX3, which is BMW’s coming attempt to finally get back into the electric game.

“Over 30,000 Norwegian kroner are in line to buy one of the new electric cars that are on the way to the market, as many buyers have paid to stand there,” a Google translation of the NRK article about the news states. [Update: That translation has been modified for accuracy. It initially said “Over 30,000 Norwegians are in line” but that was apparently an unfortunate auto translation.]

Again, Tesla’s numbers are an estimate rather than official figures from the automaker, and I have a hard time believing they aren’t much higher.

Learn more about Norway’s EV adoption background if you haven’t done so before.

Top image via Elbilfestival i Geiranger and Norsk Elbilforening (some rights reserved), second image via NRK

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Zachary Shahan Zach is tryin' to help society help itself (and other species). He spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as its director and chief editor. He's also the president of Important Media and the director/founder of EV Obsession and Solar Love. Zach is recognized globally as an electric vehicle, solar energy, and energy storage expert. He has presented about cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, and Canada.

Zach has long-term investments in TSLA, FSLR, SPWR, SEDG, & ABB — after years of covering solar and EVs, he simply has a lot of faith in these particular companies and feels like they are good cleantech companies to invest in. But he offers no professional investment advice and would rather not be responsible for you losing money, so don't jump to conclusions.

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Tesla Autopilot Lawsuit May Affect Autonomous Driving Rules

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Published on November 1st, 2018 |

by Steve Hanley

Tesla Autopilot Lawsuit May Affect Autonomous Driving Rules

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November 1st, 2018 by Steve Hanley

Let’s say you are driving down the highway at 80 mph when a stopped vehicle suddenly appears in your lane. What do you do?

A. Swerve?

B. Brake hard?

C. Crash into it and blame the autonomous driving software in your vehicle for the collision?

If you are Shawn Hudson, the correct answer is C. Hudson was driving along a Florida highway in his Tesla Model S in early October, with Autopilot engaged and his speed set to 80 mph, when his car crashed into the rear of a Ford Fiesta that had stalled in his lane. Hudson’s car was heavily damaged as a result, although he escaped with no injuries.

Release The Hounds!
Unimpressed that his Tesla did a fine job of protecting him thanks to its superior crash worthiness, Hudson hired a lawyer and sued Tesla, claiming its Autopilot system failed to perform as advertised. “Through a pervasive national marketing campaign and a purposefully manipulative sales pitch, Tesla has duped consumers” into believing that Autopilot can “transport passengers at highway speeds with minimal input and oversight,” the lawsuit says, according to a report in ArsTechnica. Where have we hard this tale before?

Contacted about the suit, Tesla emailed this comment to ArsTechnica (we didn’t bother to reach out as well since Tesla always provides the same statements to all outlets in controversial cases such as this):

“We don’t like hearing about any accidents in our cars, and we are hopeful that those involved in this incident are recovering. In this case, the car was incapable of transmitting log data to our servers, which has prevented us from reviewing the vehicle’s data from the accident. However, we have no reason to believe that Autopilot malfunctioned or operated other than as designed.

“When using Autopilot, it is the driver’s responsibility to remain attentive to their surroundings and in control of the vehicle at all times. Tesla has always been clear that Autopilot doesn’t make the car impervious to all accidents, and Tesla goes to great lengths to provide clear instructions about what Autopilot is and is not, including by offering driver instructions when owners test drive and take delivery of their car, before drivers enable Autopilot and every single time they use Autopilot, as well as through the Owner’s Manual and Release Notes for software updates.”

Word Of Mouth vs. Reading The Manual & Paying Attention To The Prompts
Stuff and nonsense, says Hudson in his suit. He claims he heard about the wonders of Autopilot and went to a Tesla store to find out more. “Tesla’s sales representative reassured Hudson that all he needed to do as the driver of the vehicle is to occasionally place his hand on the steering wheel and that the vehicle would ‘do everything else,'” the lawsuit claims. Hudson says he was “relaxing” during his morning commute at the time of the crash.

His lawyer, Mike Morgan, stated during a press conference announcing the legal action, “If this had been something more substantial than a Ford Fiesta, he wouldn’t be here. Hudson became the guinea pig for Tesla to experiment their fully autonomous vehicle.” He says the car’s owners manual states, “you can engage it over 50 miles an hour, but if you engage it over 50 miles an hour, it’s got trouble finding stationary objects and stopped cars. To me, that’s a big problem. To me, that means you’re selling nothing.”

“The Law Is A Ass”
No less a personage than Charles Dickens weighed in on the majesty of the legal system some years ago in Oliver Twist. In one passage, Mr. Bumble, a character in the novel, says, “If the law supposes that, the law is a ass — a idiot.” The redoubtable Mr. Bumble may have been right.

The history of liability law in the United States relates back to the famous case — beloved by law students everywhere — of McPherson vs. Buick Motor Company, in which future Supreme Court justice Benjamin Cardozo ruled customers could sue manufacturers directly for injuries related to the use of their products. Prior to that case, decided just over 100 years ago, manufacturers were insulated from liability because they had no direct dealings with the consumer, what the law liked to call at the time “privity of contract.”

They made stuff — like automobiles — which they sold to dealers. The dealers in turn sold them to the end user. Since there was no contractual relationship between the manufacturers and the consumer, how could they be held responsible if their products caused harm? It didn’t take Cardozo long to figure out the answer to that question and then make it the law in New York state. The entire field of American tort law grew out of the McPherson case, which opened the floodgates to the tsunami of tort law litigation that bedevils us today.

The False-Positive Dilemma
Tesla is not alone in struggling to design autonomous driving systems that can navigate on their own. The problem is designing them so they are not constantly applying the brakes whenever something unexpected happens. Today’s systems have difficulty discriminating between a piece of paper on the roadway or a plastic bag being blown across a travel lane and an actual car or — God forbid — a pedestrian. To get around that issue, most emergency braking and self-driving systems today are simply instructed to ignore those inputs — which are known as false positives — and continue on without pausing.

Tesla has been more aggressive about marketing its Autopilot than most, as have Tesla owners. As of this moment, Tesla has a video on the Autopilot page of its website that shows a person driving without a hand on the steering wheel. There are no disclaimers in the video advising viewers that they must remain attentive at all times. Elon Musk has gotten very upset with people who dared question the capabilities of Autopilot, arguing that such carping will result in more highway deaths if people get spooked by the negativity and decide to not engage Autopilot whenever they can.

The Beta Tester Conundrum
Attorney Mike Morgan, despite his grandstanding, has a point. While Tesla owners may arguably consent to being voluntary beta testers for the company (and even pay a premium for it), drivers of the other cars on the road — such as the owner of the Fiesta that Hudson’s Model S collided with — clearly are not part of the Faustian arrangement Tesla and its customers have entered into.

Now, here’s a fine legal point you aspiring attorneys out there can wrestle with. Can a Tesla employee expand the representations made by the company orally? Let’s take an example. A roofing company sends a representative to a home. The salesman presents the homeowner with a brochure promising a 10 year warranty on all new roofs installed by the company. During the sales presentation, the salesman says, “All our roofs come with a lifetime guarantee.”

When the roof starts leaking 10 years and one month after it is installed, is the homeowner covered by a warranty or not?

Courts have wrestled with issues like this for generations and there is no generally recognized answer nationwide. Will the state court in Florida rule the Mr. Hudson could rely on the statements supposedly made by the Tesla salesman even if they go further than the company’s written materials? We simply don’t know.

Volkswagen Proposes An Alliance Of Manufacturers
When an Uber test vehicle ran over and killed a pedestrian in Tempe, Arizona, earlier this year, it set off alarm bells throughout the automotive industry. According to a report by Automotive News, Volkswagen is quietly engaging in conversations with up to 15 other automakers about standardizing autonomous driving protocols. The purpose of the talks is to insulate the companies as much as possible from liability claims.

An unidentified VW executive told Automotive News, “When you are involved in an accident, you have a better chance in court when you can prove that your car adheres to the latest technical standard. How do you create an industry standard? Ideally by getting others to use the same sensor kit and software, so for that reason an overarching cooperation between automakers is one of the options we are examining. The question is: How do we bring products to market that guarantee we made ourselves as small a target for damage claims as possible? Law firms are already in the starting blocks,” the executive said.

When asked if such an alliance would be similar to the Ionity consortium that is bringing high-speed charging stations for electric vehicles to Europe, the executive said autonomy is “another level of complexity entirely.” Ionity is a partnership between Volkswagen, Mercedes, BMW, Ford, and Shell and is basically just about getting high-speed charging stations installed across Europe.

“The gates of history turn on tiny hinges,” my high school history teacher told her students constantly. In 1916, Mr. McPherson drove his Buick into a phone pole. The collision broke the steering wheel, which then proceeded to pierce his chest. The result of that small incident changed American liability law forever.

In 2018, Shawn Hudson’s Tesla Model S drove into the back of a Ford Fiesta on a Florida highway while its Autopilot system was engaged. Could that incident have a similar impact on self-driving technology both in the US and in other countries? “We’ll see,” said the Zen master.

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Steve Hanley Steve writes about the interface between technology and sustainability from his home in Rhode Island and anywhere else th..

Alta Motors Fails: A Tale Of Electric Motorcycles, Disruption, & Startups

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Clean Transport

Published on October 24th, 2018 |

by Michael Barnard

Alta Motors Fails: A Tale Of Electric Motorcycles, Disruption, & Startups

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October 24th, 2018 by Michael Barnard

Alta Motors has ceased operations after a decade of innovation, work, and some success. But is the apparent failure of this electric motorcycle company just the story of another startup that couldn’t cross the chasm, or is there something more going on?

Alta has been around at least as a glimmer in its designers’ eyes since 2007. Derek Dorresteyn and Jeff Sand loved the smooth torque curve of electric motors, and with their combined decades of engineering, fabrication, and design experience, decided to take on dirt bikes at their own game.

And in 2017, they reached their pinnacle, it seems, with their bike reaching victory in the Geneva Supercross. An almost stock Alta Redshift winning an international supercross race made it seem as if victory was within reach.

But as has been reported many times before, the motorcycle market has radically shifted over the past decade. It fell off a cliff in North America and Europe due to the 2008 recession, and has never recovered. Part of that is that the Baby Boomer generation embraced huge motorcycles in a quest for bragging rights about having the biggest… engine. Ludicrous displacements of up to 2,294 cc were found on two-wheelers. When motorcycles regularly had larger engines than many family cars, it was obvious that something odd was happening.

Harley-Davidson is the most obvious victim of expanding girth. As its North American sales fall, it’s chastised from the biggest bully pulpit in the world for shifting production to markets where it actually has hopes to expand and it tries to shift to electric drive trains, something it has only a faint hope of succeeding at.

And Harley-Davidson’s electrification plans play into the story of Alta Motors. In hindsight, it’s obvious that when Alta Motors’ funding hope was Harley-Davidson, there was a problem at Alta. The two brands are far, far apart. Alta is a San Francisco startup, a maker of silent race machines and looking forward to an electric future. Harley-Davidson is a lethargic, backward-looking dinosaur of a company, trying to survive while nimble mammals eat its eggs. They were always a poor fit, and HD funding Alta was at best odd. And it didn’t last.

So is that it? Was Alta just too early in its quest to succeed? Is it just another failed startup that couldn’t get funding for the next round of growth?

Probably not.

Chart by author

Let’s start by looking at use cases for motorized two-wheelers across multiple types of bikes. Alta Motors was making a pure dirt bike. While it could be converted in many places to a street legal bike by the addition of various bits, they didn’t sell it that way. The included chart reflects their purity or narrowness of purpose, depending on how you look at it. Like straight dirt bikes, they are optimized for offroad fun. Dual-sport bikes score highest in this ranking simply because they support the most use cases, even though they don’t support many of them as well as more specialized offerings.

So far, so reductive. You don’t buy a dirt bike to do extended road touring, and you don’t buy a Honda Goldwing if you want to spend time in the dirt. But what about the electric mountain bike category? It has a lot more utility in different areas, is almost as fun in the dirt as a straight dirt bike, and is a lot cheaper. And it’s street legal out of the box without add-ons.

Why is this important? Alta Motors wasn’t competing with mountain biking, after all. It was building pure offroad racing machines.

It’s simple. In order for Alta Motors to scale, it had to sell a lot of bikes. It had to sell motorcycles to weekend riders. It had to sell motorcycles to casual riders. There just aren’t that many motorcycle racers in the world.

Diagram by author

But as soon as it steps outside of racing, it’s competing with broader competition. More casual offroad riders are going to value bang for the buck, and both gas dirtbikes and electric mountain bikes offer that. Alta Motors made headlines when its prices made it down to $12,000 USD for its cheapest bike. The other two can be had for under $5K for the most part, although there are more expensive options as well.

If your differentiator is electrons or silence, electric mountain bikes offer those as well. And the 800-lb gorilla in the electric motorcycle market, Zero, sells its fun FX and FXS dirt bikes in street legal form out of the box at around the same price point as the Alta Motors bikes.

In the USA alone, there were about 40 million people who mountain biked in the mid-2000s. Mountain bikes sell by the millions annually in America, while dirt bikes might hit 100,000 units. Which is the more attractive market for an innovative product? Extending the utility and fun of something which is sold by the millions for a bit of extra money, or trying to displace the best product of tiny market?

When framed like that, it’s clear that Alta Motors faced an uphill battle. Its reported 300 back-ordered units is pretty good for the market they were going after, but terrible from the perspective of investors.

Market disruption per Christensen and Raynor’s The Innovator’s Dilemma

Electric bicycles are disrupting the bottom end of the motorcycle marketplace. They have much lower barriers to entry for most people, have higher utility for our increasingly urban lifestyles and increasingly offer equivalent amounts of fun at a fraction of the price. We can see what will happen to much of the rest of the market when we look at other innovation spaces that have been addressed in other areas. Christensen and Raynor’s Innovator’s Dilemma demonstrates with case study after case study the impact on market leaders when entrants come into established markets with simpler products which offer different utility at a lower price point.

Alta Motors is a victim of focusing too narrowly for effective entrepreneurialism. Its vision is to be admired. Its aspiration to compete directly with specialized gas offroad bikes was fulfilled. But unlike Tesla, it wasn’t going after a big enough market for investors to care. And the market is radically altering under its feet.

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Michael Barnard is a C-level technology and strategy consultant who works with startups, existing businesses and investors to identify opportunities for significant bottom line growth in the transforming low-carbon economy. He is editor of The Future is Electric, a Medium publication. He regularly publishes analyses of low-carbon technology and policy in sites including Newsweek, Slate, Forbes, Huffington Post, Quartz, CleanTechnica and RenewEconomy, with some of his work included in textbooks. Third-party articles on his analyses and interviews have been published in dozens of news sites globally and have reached #1 on Reddit Science. Much of his work originates on Quora.com, where Mike has been a Top Writer annually since 2012. He's available for consulting engagements, speaking engagements and Board positions.

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BASF And Norilsk Nickel Partner On New Battery Production In Finland

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Published on October 23rd, 2018 |

by Kyle Field

BASF And Norilsk Nickel Partner On New Battery Production In Finland

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October 23rd, 2018 by Kyle Field

Germany chemical giant BASF and Russian mining conglomerate Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) have inked a new deal for nickel and cobalt supply.

The deal will see BASF build a new factory to produce battery cathode materials in Harjavalta, Finland, adjacent to a Nornickel cobalt and nickel refinery. The deal seeks to capitalize on the potential transition of the German auto industry to electric vehicles, which will require an immense new supply of lithium batteries to power them.

“With the investment in Harjavalta, BASF will be present in all major regions with local production and increased customer proximity, further supporting the rapidly growing electric vehicle market,” president of BASF’s Catalysts division Kenneth Lane said.

To date, most of these batteries are sourced overseas from Chinese and Korean suppliers, leaving local companies out of the mix. The new partnership leverages proximity to turn raw materials from the mine straight into usable battery cathode materials that can be funneled directly to a local battery cell manufacturer at a lower cost than they might be sourced from remote suppliers.

Locally sourcing the very raw materials that are used in batteries was one of the key reasons Tesla built its Gigafactory 1 in Nevada, where there are plentiful lithium reserves.

“The agreement is an important element of Nornickel’s broader strategy to expand its presence in the global battery materials market and establish long-term cooperation with leading producers of cathode active materials,” said Sergey Batekhin, senior vice president at Nornickel.

When it starts production in 2020, the new BASF factory is expected to churn out enough cathodes to supply some 300,000 electric vehicles per year, which, at 60kWh per vehicle, translates to enough cathodes for 18 gigawatt-hours of battery cells per year.

Impressively, BASF said that the new Harjavalta factory will “utilise locally-generated renewable energy resources including hydro, wind and biomass.” As companies around the world ramp up global battery production in support of the electric vehicle transition, it is an opportunity for us to build smarter, more efficient factories.

That happens both by utilizing low-carbon renewables to power them and by building them in intelligent locations. Building factories in close proximity to either raw materials or customers reduces the amount of transportation required and, thus, shrinks the carbon footprint of the manufacturing process. Manufacturing EVs is one of the areas where, according to analysis by the Union of Concerned Scientists, electric vehicles have higher emissions than gas and diesel vehicles due to lower volumes and what have historically been inefficient manufacturing processes for batteries.

The new cathode factory is but a single cog in a greater machine spooling up at BASF that will see some €400 million ($462 million) being invested into building cathode materials for Europe.

From a pricing standpoint, the cathode is one of the more expensive parts of electric vehicle batteries, thanks to the concentration of cobalt in lithium-ion chemistries. As the sharp uptick in demand for cobalt has driven prices of cobalt up to new heights in recent years, battery cell manufacturers and electric vehicle builders are aggressively looking for ways to trim down the cobalt used in their batteries.

Tesla has committed to decrease its cobalt usage from 3% of the battery in June of this year down to 0% over the next 2–3 years, demonstrating that where there is a will, there is a way.

Source: Reuters

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Kyle Field I'm a tech geek passionately in search of actionable ways to reduce the negative impact my life has on the planet, save money and reduce stress. Live intentionally, make conscious decisions, love more, act responsibly, play. The more you know, the less you need. TSLA investor. Tesla referral code: http://ts.la/kyle623

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