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The Best Selling Electric Vehicles, & When Will Tesla Model 3 Be #1?

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Published on December 25th, 2018 |

by Jose Pontes

The Best Selling Electric Vehicles, & When Will Tesla Model 3 Be #1?

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December 25th, 2018 by Jose Pontes

Several people have asked me, “Is the Tesla Model 3 the best selling EV?”

My answer is: Yes, it is the 2018 best selling EV, with over 100,000 units sold.

Okay, but what about the all-time seller? Which is the most common EV globally? The Nissan Leaf? And who will it be in two years’ time? The Model 3?

That’s when I had to check the numbers.

With 5 million plug-ins already sold through last October, the best selling models are starting to reach significant numbers in the automotive world. While the Tesla Model 3 (~103,000 units) and the BAIC EC-Series (~150,000) are all the rage right now, the fact is that both nameplates are still quite new, with the Californian being 16 months old and the Chinese model not much older at 23 months.

As such, the top 3 positions are in the hands of older models, with the youngest one being the #3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV. That model is a couple of months away from celebrating its 6th birthday.

In the lead, we have the Nissan Leaf, which despite all the bad press is doing its work in an effective way, counting almost 376,000 units sold. The original frog-eyed version reached 300,000 units.

Not bad, eh?

The #2 Tesla Model S continues to rack up sales, with 254,000 made so far, and it will still take some time for its smaller sibling Model 3 to reach it.

The sure-value Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (179,000 units) is relatively new to 3rd place, with the Japanese SUV having recently surpassed the Chevrolet Volt.

Gone are the days when the range-extended hatchback was big in the plug-in scene. It was the best selling plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) in 2012, and runner-up in 2011 and 2013.

So, the present day question is answered. As for the coming two years, things get trickier…

While we can more or less predict how the early 2021 picture will look for legacy automakers, the Chinese tidal wave of manufacturers is too unpredictable for me to know how things will be in two years.

And regarding Tesla, things are even more uncertain, as every week (if not every day) there’s something new going on. Sometimes it seems Tesla’s destiny is being written by some Mexican-novela script writers, so much are the twists and turns.

But let’s conduct a futurology exercise.

In order to be in this all-time podium by early 2021, a model needs to sell consistently over 10,000 units per month. By that time, there will be several models selling over that threshold, but most will be fresh nameplates, without enough backlog to pull them into the 500,000-ish units needed to be in the podium.

Looking at the current podium bearers, we can already exclude the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV. By that time, it shouldn’t have more than 300,000 units made, as even if there was enough demand to go further, Mitsubishi production constraints (battery constraints?) would have prevented it from ramping up sales to over 10,000 units/month.

Regarding the Model S, due to its high price and the internal competition of its Model 3 younger sibling, the total number in the beginning of 2021 should be around 380,000 units, but because we are talking about a Tesla, there are too many factors (China, production constraints, new specs, etc.) that add uncertainty to its performance. But more on that later, once we talk about the Model 3…

And then we have the Nissan Leaf. Having already surpassed the 10,000 deliveries/month threshold at times with the 40kWh version, there are few reasons to doubt that the arrival of the 60kWh version will propel the Japanese hatchback to regular 10,000+ units/month performances, once it arrives.

So, we could see the Leaf hit some 650,000–700,000 units by January 1st, 2021.

Now to the current game-changers, the BAIC EC-Series and the Tesla Model 3, the only two nameplates that provide 5-digit/month performances without a sweat.

The Chinese EV should end this year with some 180,000 units made, but BAIC’s city car will face some headwinds in the future, as increased competition — namely, from the compelling BYD Yuan — should steal some sales from it in the long run, so I am betting that the nameplate’s sales should stabilize around 130,000 units per year, ending 2020 with some 440,000 units made.

So now we have two (Leaf and EC-Series) of the three podium bearers by early 2021.

What about the elephant in the room and leitmotif for this article?

There are so many factors that can change the Model 3’s fate and success that I had to make two different scenarios, a Bull one and a Bear one.

In the Bull scenario — no doubt, the one that Tesla fans will be cheering for — one can expect close to 30,000 deliveries in December, thanks to a production rate of 7,000/week, meaning the Model 3 would end 2018 with some 150,000 units on the streets.

For 2019, with the 7,000/week as a basis and a gradual ramp up during the year, aided by the beginning of production at Gigafactory 3 in China later in the year, production should reach some 400,000 units. That assumes demand continues be higher than supply, mostly thanks to the Standard Range arrival in late Q2 and the success of the car in Europe and China, where it will profit from the low/nonexistent import tariffs on cars.

This would allow the Model 3 to surpass the Nissan Leaf as the most common EV in the World by Q4 2019.

By 2020, the Model 3 would build on the previous year’s performance, reaching some 600,000 units. Assuming demand remained strong, thanks to word of mouth and the success of the Model 3 Standard Range in Europe and China, the model could reach one million units on the road before the year of the end.

As for the Bear scenario, the TSLA shorts’ favorite one, the Model 3 will end 2018 with 145,000 units, because Tesla has not achieved a production rate of 7,000/week on a consistent level.

For 2019, in this scenario, Tesla’s demand problems start to appear in North America and the Standard Range version is only available in Q3. Europe and China not enough to compensate lagging demand, especially in China, where the USA/China tariff war seriously hurt Model 3 demand — only 1,000 sales per month. Meanwhile, Gigafactory 3 suffered from delays, with volume production only expected in 2020.

With a more appealing and advanced Model Y presented in 2019, the Model 3 is already experiencing some internal competition, with many prospective customers preferring to wait for the upcoming SUV.

All these setbacks made the company cut back Model 3 production to some 190,000 units/year, making the sedan end 2019 with 335,000 all-time deliveries, below the evergreen Nissan Leaf.

By 2020, thanks to the start of volume production at Gigafactory 3 in China and Standard Range deliveries in Europe, the Model 3 reached 300,000 registrations, but the long-term success of the nameplate is capped by the success of the Model Y, which has been gobbling up production space from its older sibling.

So, by January 1st, 2021, some 635,000 Model 3s will be made in this scenario, which won’t be enough to remove the aging Nissan Leaf from #1, especially with the Japanese car having a much improved generation in 2021. In other words, do not expect the Leaf to leave the throne anytime soon.

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About the Author

Jose Pontes Always interested in the auto industry, particularly in electric cars, Jose has been overviewing the sales evolution of plug-ins through the EV Sales blog since 2012, allowing him to gain an expert view on where EVs are right now and where they are headed in the future. The EV Sales blog has become a go-to source for people interested in electric car sales around the world. Extending that work and expertise, Jose is now a partner in EV-Volumes and works with the European Alternative Fuels Observatory on EV sales matters.

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These vehicles will be killed in 2019: Say goodbye to Chevrolet, Ford, Nissan cars

Original Article

Tesla Supercharger gets taken over by anti-Tesla pickup truck drivers acting aggressively

In what appears to be an act of protest against Tesla, a bunch of pickup truck drivers used their trucks to block access to a Supercharger station and reportedly yelled profanities about Tesla until they were removed from the premises. The incident happened in Hickory, North Carolina last weekend. A Tesla owner and Reddit user… Continue reading Tesla Supercharger gets taken over by anti-Tesla pickup truck drivers acting aggressively

Ranger redux: Ford hopes to claw its way back into exploding midsize truck market

Meghan Reeder | CNBC
2019 Ford Ranger pickup

The windshield wipers slap furiously as the pickup splashes its way through the deep mud bog, the last in a series of obstacles along an off-road trail rough enough to shake loose a few fillings.

It's not the sort of route most drivers will experience in a lifetime, but pickup owners expect their trucks to be ready to handle that sort of situation on a regular basis.

So, when Ford decided to give some automotive journalists a chance to drive the all-new Ranger pickup this month, it took them up into the mountains east of San Diego where they could put the truck through what can best be described as a torture test.

Ford's full-size F-Series pickups make up the best-selling product line in the U.S. automotive market, but the automaker has been notably absent from the midsize truck segment since killing off the old version of its Ranger back in 2012, shuttering the archaic Twin Cities Assembly Plant in Minnesota. It's a decision the automaker soon came to regret.

Rule the road

Through the 1980s, small trucks ruled the road. For then-young baby boomers, they were a cheap way to get a new set of wheels. But over the last two decades, the market has shifted to full-size models like the Ford F-150 and rival Chevrolet Silverado. With demand for midsize products spiraling downward, Ford and its Detroit rivals all pulled the plug, leaving just two imports, the Toyota Tacoma and Nissan Frontier, to fight it out for the remaining scraps. Ford, in particular, was betting it could get old Ranger buyers to cough up a bit more cash for the bigger — and markedly more profitable — F-150.

But things didn't work out quite as planned. For one thing, Ford didn't count on General Motors to get back in the game, in 2015 reviving its Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon pickups. What seemed like a risky bet quickly began to pay off. Not only did sales of the sibling trucks take off, but they gave momentum to the midsize market as a whole, sales of the Tacoma and Frontier also improving. Two years later, Honda returned to the segment with a complete remake of its Ridgeline model.

Ford
The interior of the 2019 Ford Ranger

The irony is that Ford actually had a new midsize pickup, an all-new Ranger that it was producing in plants all over the world and selling just about everywhere but the U.S. The automaker was so sure there wouldn't be a market, it didn't even bother to engineer it to meet U.S. regulations — a process known as homologation — or make it robust enough for the unique demands of American buyers.

By 2016, it was obvious to Ford planners and senior executives that they were missing a huge opportunity, made all the more obvious by the explosive growth in light trucks, in general. Pickups, vans and utility vehicles now account for about 2 out of every 3 new vehicles sold in the States.

$100 million

Ford engineers had a good place to start with the new Ranger, but they couldn't just bring over the global model. It needed some major revisions to boost its cargo and towing capacity, as well as to let it handle serious off-road driving conditions.

The automaker won't discuss what the project cost but analysts like Joe Phillippi of AutoTrends Consulting estimate it ran well over $100 million — not including the price tag for tooling up a factory in the Detroit suburbs to build the U.S. Ranger. That was likely millions more than what it might have cost had Ford designed in the needs of the U.S. marketplace in the first place.

“We can't go back and change the past,” Joe Hinrichs, Ford's president of the Americas, said at an event marking the start of Ranger production at the Wayne, Michigan, truck plant six weeks ago. Looking forward, Hinrichs said, the midsize market should grow fast enough to make room for Ford's return.

Ford
2019 Ford Ranger

Since GM launched the revived Colorado and Canyon models, the midsize pickup segment has grown sharply, even as the overall U.S. market has struggled. In 2017, sales rose to 452,336, up from 448,398 the previous year. And with more new product, the forecast is for even faster growth. At the Wayne plant ceremony, Hinrichs told reporters that he expects the market will quickly reach 500,000, with “plenty of room for everybody.”

Crowded market

Not everyone is convinced Ford will have an easy go of it, however. Phillippi pointed out that “the market is going to get crowded.” At this month's Los Angeles Auto Show, Fiat Chrysler officially got back in the game by revealing the long-awaited Jeep Gladiator. It marks the first time that brand has had a pickup in nearly two decades.

The good news for Ford is that initial reviews of the Ranger have been solid. Autoblog declared that “it stands on its own and above the rest.” CNBC's own test found the Ranger to be solid and capable, with the ability to haul as much as 1,800 pounds of cargo and tow a 7,500-pound trailer.

Mike Blake | Reuters
The 2020 Jeep Gladiator is introduced during a Jeep press conference at the Los Angeles Auto Show in Los Angeles, California, November 28, 2018.

While that's well short of what some full-size models like the F-150 or the Chevy Silverado can handle, experts say that is more than enough for the typical truck buyer. Indeed, midsize models are nearly as large as — and boast nearly the same capabilities as — the full-size trucks of the 1980s thanks to the way the auto industry regularly upsizes its products with each new generation.

“These (midsize) trucks will do virtually everything a suburban cowboy needs,” said Phillippi. Add the ability to do some things that those full-size trucks can't, like park in the typical suburban garage.

MSRP gap

Then there's the matter of price. The aging Nissan Frontier starts at just $18,990, barely half the cost of the typical new vehicle sold in the U.S. this year. The 2019 Ford Ranger will carry a base MSRP of $24,300. While a stripped-down F-Series starts just over $28,000, the gap between midsize and full-size models, as buyers typically equip them, pushes quickly above $10,000.

Source: Nissan
The 2016 Nissan Frontier S King Cab Pickup.

Prospects for the midsize market seem solid enough that there could be still more entries. The five-year plan outlined last June by the late Sergio Marchionne, Fiat Chrysler's former CEO, called for the Dodge division to return to the segment after abandoning its own midsize truck, the Dakota, earlier in the decade.

Volkswagen might even get in the game. The German maker has its own pickup, the Amarok, which it sells primarily in Latin American and Europe. Last June, VW signed a memorandum of understanding with Ford that initially focused on joint efforts in the commercial vehicle segment. But company insiders confirm that the two potential partners are now looking at a variety of opportunities. That could even include a VW version of the Ranger, according to some sources.

Indian pickups

Then there's Mahindra & Mahindra. A decade ago, the Indian automaker attempted to launch a U.S. dealer network to market an SUV and a pickup. That effort collapsed during the Great Recession. But Mahindra recently launched production of a small off-road vehicle, the Roxor, at a plant in Auburn Hills, Michigan. And more could come, Group Chairman Anand Mahindra told reporters at the opening of the factory a year ago.

“I think a very logical step after that would be to get on-road,” he hinted. While a street-legal Roxor appears to be in the works, a version of one of Mahindra's Indian pickups could also follow.

Hyundai, meanwhile, is working on a slightly smaller truck based on the Santa Cruz concept that won rave reviews when introduced at the North American International Auto Show a few years back. A production version could be ready sometime in 2020 or 2021, according to the Korean carmaker.

Much as with SUVs, automakers are wondering whether there might be a market for still smaller pickups, more akin to the compact models that won the hearts of then-young boomers. Ford has dropped hints it may have something to slot in below the Ranger. How the midsize segment fares over the next several years could determine whether pickup buyers will get even more options.

CORRECTION: The article was updated to reflect that the Ranger will be reintroduced in 2019.

Paul Eisenstein
is a freelancer for CNBC. His travel and accommodations for this article were paid by Ford.

GM laying off 50 workers at Brownstown plant

GM laying off 50 workers at Brownstown plantThe loss of General Motors Co.'s plug-in hybrid Chevrolet Volt will affect nearly half of the employees at the automaker's battery assembly plant in Brownstown Township.
GM filed a notice with the State of Michigan this week stating it will lay off 50 at Brownstown Battery, including 37 hourly workers represented by the United Auto Workers. A total of 116 workers are currently employed at the plant.
The layoffs at Brownstown, slated for Feb. 18, are expected to be permanent, GM said in its filing. Union represented workers will have the opportunity to transfer to other UAW-GM plants, but a GM spokeswoman said plans for those transfers have not been made yet.
On the Monday after Thanksgiving, GM announced a sweeping workforce and manufacturing restructuring for 2019 that will include idling five plants in the U.S. and Canada and cutting some 8,000 white collar jobs.
The affected workers at Brownstown worked on batteries for the Chevrolet Volt, which will stop production when GM idles the Detroit-Hamtramck plant next year. Brownstown was not part of the November plant announcements because the facility will continue operations despite losing workers.
nnaughton@detroitnews.com
Twitter: @NoraNaughton
Read or Share this story: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/general-motors/2018/12/18/gm-laying-off-50-workers-brownstown-plant/2354625002/

These are the most disappointing cars we drove in 2018

Mack Hogan | CNBC

Mack Hogan | @macklinhogan

1 Hour Ago

With such steep competition, it's rare that automakers have truly haphazard entries in any segment. Still, some cars totally miss the mark on value.
Sure, the worst cars on sale today are still more livable and safe than cars from 20 years ago, but prices keep creeping higher. So for me, the biggest disappointments are all cars that have price tags divorced from the reality of the market.
With interest rates rising and shoppers looking for better deals, there are a few cars this year that we think most people should skip entirely.
Here they are, in alphabetical order.

Ford EcoSport

Price as tested: $28,235
Ford needed an entry in the subcompact crossover space, so it's easy to see why they brought over a years-old design from abroad. And to its credit, the EcoSport is decent inside and fun to toss around. Had it come in at a reasonable price, it could be a hit. But, with Ford axing most of its cars, the EcoSport is simply too expensive to be the starting point of the Ford lineup.

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

GMC Terrain

Price as tested: $40,550
At $40,550, our GMC Terrain tester was far more expensive than range-topping versions of its competitors. Yet, the fully-kitted Terrain costs as much as $10,000 more than competitors, offering few advantages besides an available rear-seat-entertainment system. There's nothing else to justify a 30 percent premium over compelling options from Honda, Mazda and Nissan. Buy something else and tape a pair of iPads to the headrests, because there's no way I would recommend the Terrain.

Mack Hogan | CNBC

Infiniti QX60

Price as tested: $65,930
My full review of the QX60 hasn't published yet, but it's safe to say I wasn't impressed. Some quilted leather and a good coat of paint can't hide the fact that the QX60 has pedestrian roots and an infotainment system out of 2012. The word “bumbling” was created to describe the QX60, with the mega monster feeling more unwieldy and less refined than some mainstream crossovers. It'd be a midpack finisher in the mainstream three-row crossover world, but against other $65,000 family haulers it makes no sense.

Infiniti

Toyota Yaris

Price as tested: $19,335
Let's be clear about three things. One, I love a cheap and cheerful car. Two, Toyota makes some good cheap cars. Three, the Yaris is not one of them. Sure, $19,335 doesn't sound like a lot of money, but the value proposition is nonexistent. The Yaris has a bad interior that doesn't make even a passing attempt to disguise its cheapness, while the powertrain is loud and clattery. In all forms, it feels like a car from a decade ago.
The most damning part of it all is the competition. Not from other automakers, but from Toyota itself. Between the Yaris iA (a completely different car despite the similar name), the Corolla iM and the Corolla, Toyota offers three better cars that start at under $19,335.
Instead of the cars on this list, consider buying one of the best I tested in 2018.

Mack Hogan | CNBC

Detroit auto show 2019: Cadillac, Toyota, Ford to show new vehicles

Original Article

General Motors hints it could negotiate a way to keep one or more plants open

Jeff Swensen | Getty Images
An exterior view of the GM Lordstown Plant on November 26, 2018 in Lordstown, Ohio. GM said it would end production at five North American plants including Lordstown, and cut 15 percent of its salaried workforce. The GM Lordstown Plant assembles the Chevy Cruz.

At least one of three assembly plants that General Motors says it expects to close could find a reprieve based on the results of scheduled contract talks between the United Auto Workers and GM next year.

Detroit's biggest automaker announced plans in November to close five factories, including three assembly plants, and to cut 15 percent of its North American workforce. More than 14,000 employees are expected to lose their jobs, though GM has offered some factory workers the opportunity to transfer to other plants that may have openings.

The planned cuts have generated a political firestorm, President Donald Trump going so far as to threaten to take action against the automaker, possibly by eliminating federal tax incentives GM can offer buyers of its battery cars. It has also generated some positive press for GM's emerging rival Tesla, whose CEO Elon Musk has indicated he would consider buying the plant in Lordstown, Ohio.

The company is now giving a glimmer of hope that its plans to shutter all five plants may not be set in stone. In addition to Lordstown, the plants are Detroit-Hamtramck, Warren, Michigan, Baltimore and Ontario.

During several days of meetings on Capitol Hill earlier this month, CEO Mary Barra said she was willing to keep an “open mind” about the plant closings, though several senior insiders cautioned that it was unlikely GM would back down on the shutdowns.The automaker has also emphasized that it is required to negotiate plant closings with the UAW, which represents most of its U.S. hourly employees.”The future of the (Lordstown plant and others) is a matter of negotiations,” said GM spokesman Pat Morrissey.

Company officials previously told CNBC that GM isn't trying to create a bargaining ploy in a bid to win union concessions next year. They stress that the company simply has more capacity than it needs, especially for its passenger cars. If anything, several more assembly lines are at risk, including one in the Detroit suburb of Orion Township, where the Chevrolet Sonic subcompact and Bolt EV are assembled.

Trump disappointed

With an ongoing shift from sedans and coupes to SUVs and crossover vehicles, Barra emphasized that the automaker is simply trying to respond to market forces. But she and GM have come under heavy fire.

“I am very disappointed with General Motors and their CEO, Mary Barra,” Trump tweeted after the cuts were announced on Nov. 26. “The U.S. saved General Motors and this is the thanks we get! We are now looking at cutting all @GM subsidies.”

With the automaker targeted by an unusually bipartisan broadside, few would be surprised if it tries to at least soften the blow by holding out the prospect of saving one or more of the plants. And, as a likely battleground for both Democrats and Republicans — and particularly for the re-election bid by Trump — Ohio is seen as one of the factories that could be front and center in the GM/UAW contract talks set to begin this summer.

'Unallocated'

By then, however, the factory will already be idled. The current Chevrolet Cruise sedan being built there will be pulled from production in March, leaving nothing left to build there and the plant “unallocated,” using GM's contractual language. That means there are no plans to put anything else in Lordstown.

In past years, UAW negotiators were able to keep troubled plants open, or expand existing operations, by offering concessions meant to reduce production costs. The problem the union faces is that the three assembly plants targeted by GM aren't on the chopping block because costs are too high but, rather, because demand is too low. So, reducing labor costs or improving productivity would be less of an incentive for GM than in the past, according to observers.

There are, however, “a lot of different scenarios” that could play out, said Morrissey. That could include finding new models to go into Lordstown, perhaps something competing in the booming SUV or CUV market.

Mexico to Ohio?

One possibility would be to move production of the new Chevrolet Blazer from Mexico to Ohio, though Barra appeared to dismiss that idea during her appearance in Congress.

Another possibility is to consolidate several products from other underutilized plants into Lordstown. But such a move could force the shutdown of those other factories.

For now, GM is offering many of the workers at Lordstown the option of transferring to factories whose products are in high demand, such as a truck facility in Flint, Michigan, and other facilities in Ohio and Tennessee. The Flint plant alone needs another 1,000 workers, said Morrissey, adding that there have been at least 1,100 “hand-raisers” at the plants scheduled to close who have expressed interest in moving to other factories.

Cutting shifts

The three assembly plants targeted by GM have been on the decline for some time. Since the beginning of 2017 GM has cut operations at Lordstown back to just one shift, already idling 3,000 hourly employees, with just 1,500 continuing to collect paychecks.

Even if Lordstown can't find a reprieve with GM, it just might find a new lease on life. During an interview on CBS “60 Minutes” that aired earlier this month, Musk indicated he'd be open to buying the facility. How serious he might be, Musk hasn't said, though he previously indicated Tesla will eventually need more plants in the U.S., as well as one under construction in China.

“Hey @ElonMusk. Call me,” Ohio Gov. John Kasich tweeted to Musk this week. “There are no better workers than Ohio workers. And Lordstown is ready for you.”

There would be a certain irony to it if Tesla were to buy the Lordstown factory. The automaker's plant in Fremont, California, was purchased from Toyota in 2010. It had previously been the site of a joint venture between the Japanese automaker and GM and was originally built and run by the Detroit automaker.

Ford’s Ranger rides again. But will it win in a crowded truck market?

Ford
2019 Ford Ranger

Just weeks before Ford rolls out its new Ranger pickup, the automaker finds itself in a strange position: playing catch up on trucks.

After eight years of ignoring the midsize truck market while Toyota and General Motors racked up strong sales, Ford believes it's not too late for the new Ranger to make a splash.

“Ford is a huge truck seller,” said Karl Brauer, executive publisher of Cox Automotive. “They have built up a huge loyal truck buyer audience, and this group will look at the Ranger as another great Ford pickup truck.”

With pickup buyers wanting trucks that have greater capability and more technology, Ford has packed the Ranger with plenty of features, including a 10-speed transmission and towing capacity of 7,500 pounds. Both will be tops in the midsize category. And with a base model starting at just over $25,000, Ford believes the Ranger will have no problem attracting customers.

Ford's fight to remain an American auto icon
6:01 PM ET Thu, 6 Dec 2018 | 08:36

“We expect the buyers to come from new customers who want an open bed and a truck small enough to garage, but who also want to get out on the weekend,” said Brian Bell, marketing manager for Ford.

There's no doubt Americans have rediscovered smaller pickups. A decade ago Toyota's Tacoma defined the midsize truck category as Ford, GM and Fiat Chrysler's Ram focused on building bigger, more capable and more expensive full-size pickups. In 2011, with the country recovering from a recession and auto sales still lagging, Ford dropped the Ranger and said it would concentrate on its top-selling F-Series lineup of trucks. At the time, few argued with Ford's strategy.

A few years later, General Motors made a bigger push for midsize trucks with all-new versions of the Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon, two models that hit showrooms just as Americans started buying more SUV's and trucks.

The timing was fortuitous. Since 2013, midsize pickup sales have doubled and are expected to top a half million vehicles this year, according to the auto website Edmunds.

Did Ford miss the boat by failing to bring back the Ranger sooner?

Brauer calls ignoring the midsize truck market a mistake.

“I think it is one of the reasons possibly why Mark Fields isn't at the helm [at Ford] anymore because this was seen as a miss,” Brauer said.

Instead of rehashing past decisions, Ford executives are looking to the future and predicting the Ranger model will hit the sweet spot of a hot segment. Sales of midsize pickups have jumped 22 percent this year, but the Ranger will face stuff competition. In addition to the Toyota Tacoma, Chevy Colorado and GMC Canyon, the new Jeep Gladiator will hit showrooms next spring. Given the popularity of the Fiat Chrysler's Jeep brand and the Gladiator's bold look, industry analysts will not be surprised if the new truck attracts people who otherwise would consider buying a traditional looking pickup.

It will be one of the story lines the auto industry will be watching closely next year. Ford, a company that has lead the full-size pickup market for more than 40 years thanks to the long-standing popularity of F-Series, will soon find out if the Ranger rides high with Americans who want a smaller truck.

— CNBC's Meghan Reeder contributed to this article.

Questions? Comments? BehindTheWheel@cnbc.com.

Meghan Reeder | CNBC
2019 Ford Ranger pickup

WATCH: How automakers sell a $71,000 version of a $27,000 car

How automakers sell a $71,000 version of a $27,000 car
10:40 AM ET Thu, 28 June 2018 | 02:46

Rivian R1T all-electric pickup revealed – WJAC Johnstown

With the Rivian R1T pickup revealed this morning, just ahead of the Los Angeles auto show, and the R1S SUV expected to be shown here this week, a Michigan-based electric-vehicle startup called Rivian might have something that’s been a long time coming: the first widely available fully electric light-duty pickup. Along with that, it might… Continue reading Rivian R1T all-electric pickup revealed – WJAC Johnstown