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China Electric Car Sales
December 2017

China’s EV Market Share Hits 3.3%,
BAIC EC-Series = Superstar
The rise and rise of the Chinese plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market is unstoppable, with yet another record performance in December. A total of 102,000 new passenger PEVs were registered last month, up 130% year over year. Yes, that was just December, and it pulled the year-to-date count to over 600,000 units, up 71% compared to 2016.

As consequence of this rapid growth, in December, the PEV share hit a record 3.3% market share of the entire Chinese auto market, while the entire 2017 PEV market share ended at 2.1%. That’s firmly ahead of last year’s score (1.5%) and above the USA (1.2%) and Europe (~1.9%).

The Chinese PEV market represented roughly half of the 1.2 million plug-ins sold worldwide in 2017, while Chinese carmakers made 47% of all PEVs sold last year.

Despite exports still being symbolic, the domestic market is more than enough to absorb the current production, helped by the fact that it is a highly protected market — foreign brands represent only 4% of PEV sales. Of this small cake, 2% belongs to Tesla, with the remaining 2% being divided by all other automakers.

In December, small city cars had the upper hand again, with the BAIC EC-Series being the poster child of them. The BAIC EC-Series saw over 13,000 sales, which allowed it to reach #30 in the mainstream automotive ranking in China. It was a good month also for the BYD plug-in hybrids, with the Song and Qin joining the top 5 ranking in December.

Top 5 Best Selling Electric Models in December 2017
#1 – BAIC EC-Series: After a series of ever improving performances, it looks like the BAIC EC-Series has found its cruising speed, at over 10,000 units/month. It earned a whopping 13,169 registrations in December. The little city EV is proving to be disruptive in China, owing its success to a trendy design (reminiscent of a crossover), improved specs (now with 200 km, or 125 miles, of range) and competitive pricing ($22,000), all in a booming market segment. With the Chinese AND the global editions of the 2017 Best Selling PEV Award in BAIC’s hands, the EC-Series is now looking into 2018. A six-digit performance is likely — how far above 100,000 is pretty much open to discussion, but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that this small EV could outsell the Tesla Model 3 and become the 2018 Best Seller … in the World. Again.

#2 – Chery eQ: One of the EV pioneers in China, having won the model title three times in a row (2011, 2012, 2013) with the QQ3 EV, Chery is trying to regain relevance with the eQ, which got a record 5,650 registrations in December, allowing it to reach the runner-up position last month. A vehicle targeted at city dwellers, for $24,000 before incentives, you get a funky city vehicle and the 22kWh battery provides enough range to cover the needs of the urban jungle (200 km, or 125 miles, according to the NEDC system).

#3 – SAIC Wuling E100: Shanghai Auto and General Motors have high hopes for their tiny two-seater, and the production ramp up is starting to make an impact on the Chinese plug-in market, having landed a record 5,545 registrations last month, earning its first podium place. Will it replicate the BAIC EC-Series success? I wouldn’t rule out that possibility, or even export prospects, as it could be marketed as GM’s Smart-like product outside China. For more info on this tiny two-seat electric car, please check here.

#4 – BYD Song PHEV: The current star product from Build Your Dreams (BYD), the plug-in hybrid version of its Song compact SUV had 4,643 registrations, its best result in the last 5 months. It seems BYD’s “Model Y” has stabilized around 4,000–5,000 units. In the future, though, that might not be enough to secure the best selling status in its class, despite its top-of-the-class specs (70 km / 44 miles of range; 0–100 km/h in 4.9 seconds).

#5 – BYD Qin PHEV: This is the most common plug-in car in China, with some 90,000 units registered to date. Thanks to recent changes, BYD’s “Model 3” (0–100 km/h in 5.9 seconds) got its mojo back and is once again a major player, grabbing a record 4,543 registrations in December. With a competitive price ($31,000 before incentives), sales are expected to remain high, as long as BYD manages to make enough of them.

While the leaders are fun to follow, we also thought we’d start creating additional sales charts that include “others” — electric models outside the top 20 — to highlight how many sales come from a diverse range of models. Have a look:

Year-to-Date Ranking – BAIC EC-Series Wins Model of the Year, BYD Wins Manufacturer Title
The BAIC EC-Series won the 2017 Best Seller award, a first for a BAIC model and the end of a three-year rule by BYD (Qin PHEV won in 2014 and 2015, Tang PHEV won in 2016). The breakthrough model recorded 78,079 registrations in 2017, a new all-time record.

Second was the Zhidou D2 EV, scoring 43,342 units, with 2017 being by far the most successful year for the tiny two-seater.

In third, we have the first BYD, with the Song PHEV ending the year in the last podium position. With some 31,000 units, that’s roughly the same number that allowed the Tang to win the 2016 title. But with the market growing 70% per year, more was expected from the BYD best sellers.

In a stable market, the big news was the Chery eQ climbing to #4. The BYD Qin PHEV also had a big lift, rising to #8. And the BAIC EU-Series climbed to #14, thanks to 3,247 sales, a year best.

Two new additions to the Top 20 joined the ranking in December, with the promising Wuling E100 jumping to #17 while the old-timer BYD e6 (no doubt helped by fleet deals) scored its best score in December (3,818 registrations) — that’s a best ever since it landed something like 600 years ago in 2010, helping it to reach the Top 20 … in #20.

Looking at the manufacturer ranking, BYD (18%, down 1%) won its fourth title in a row, but the 2017 award was the most difficult of them all, because it watched the runner-up BAIC (17%) get closer and closer every passing month, with the Shenzhen giant perhaps fearing a last-minute change in the leadership.

Looking into 2018, BAIC has beaten BYD in the last 3 months of the year, thanks to the EC-Series success, so if BYD wants to secure a 5th title, it will probably need a small city car to fight the EC-Series. In case BYD does offer that, I ask only one thing: A 100+ hp motor. The world needs tiny electric hot hatches…

In third place, taking the bronze medal, we have a last-minute change. Profiting from an underwhelming Zhidou performance (1,271 registrations, its worst result in 2017), Roewe (7%) climbed to the last place on the podium. The Shanghai-based manufacturer confirmed its status as one of the “Big Four” PEV carmakers in China with that surprise (the others are BYD, BAIC, and Geely) .

EV Model
December
2017
EV Market Share

1
BAIC EC-Series
13,169
78,079
13%

2
Zhidou D2 EV
1,187
42,342
7%

3
BYD Song PHEV
4,643
30,920
5%

4
Chery eQ
5,650
27,444
5%

5
JAC iEV6S/E
1,122
25,741
4%

6
BYD e5
1,146
23,601
4%

7
Geely Emgrand EV
2,764
23,324
4%

8
BYD Qin PHEV
4,543
20,738
3%

9
SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV
2,687
19,510
3%

10
Zotye E200
2,488
16,751
3%

11
JMC E100
1,922
15,491
3%

12
BYD Tang
1,505
14,592
2%

13
Changan Benni EV
2,829
14,549
2%

14
BAIC EU-Series
3,247
13,158
2%

15
JMC E200
2,605
12,340
2%

16
Hawtai EV160
3,521
11,823
2%

17
SAIC Wuling E100
5,545
11,420
2%

18
Zotye Cloud EV
2,099
11,038
2%

19
SAIC Roewe eRX5 BEV
1,629
10,436
2%

20
BYD e6
3,818
10,023
2%

Others
38,334
176,877
29%

TOTAL
102,635
600,174

Cool Kids
This month, we had a number of new additions, a PHEV version of the MG6 sedan (think: Roewe i6’s sporty cousin and you are not far off), a taxi-friendly Great Wall C30 EV, an RR Evoque-inspired compact crossover (GAC Leopaard CS9), an electric van from Chery (Karry EV), and my favorite landing this month, the…

BAIC Arcfox Lite – This is a sort of premium and individualistic alternative to its EC-Series best seller. The Arcfox Lite is actually hard to define. It’s a small city car, but in a cheap and chic kind of way, you can even say it’s a coupe … well, sort of. Targeted at young, hip urbanites, the little two-seater has an extroverted style and it’s new from the ground up. It features lightweight materials (aluminium, carbon fiber), contributing to a light 900 kg curb weight. Being part of BAIC’s new “Arcfox” premium electric sub-brand, and despite having average specs (50 hp motor, 170 km or 106 mile range), it comes loaded with tech. That includes 3 screens on the inside and LED displays on the outside (front and rear), showing whatever passengers want. Starting at 94,000 Yuan ($14,500), this is something of an oddball — either it could be a major success, selling 5,000–10,000 units/month, thanks to its unique mix of individuality and hipsterness, or … it could tank because it’s too weird.

Europe Electric Car Sales
December 2017

Tesla Shines In Near Record Month
The European passenger plug-in market ended the 2017 season with a near record performance, growing 11% compared to the same period last year by registering some 33,700 units, just a whisker below the all-time record of December 2015 (33,827) — which, let’s not forget, was inflated by fiscal changes that happened in the Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark in January 2016.

Looking at the full year performance, sales were up 38%, to over 306,000 registrations. This growth is even more significant against the backdrop of a stagnating (-5%) automotive market in Europe, making plug-ins the fastest growing segment on the Old Continent.

More good news: in the BEV/PHEV breakdown, the BEV share grew to 49%, with all-electric cars growing faster than PHEVs (+45% vs +32%). Expect this trend to continue this year, with BEVs recovering the upper hand over plug-in hybrids.

Looking at plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) share, December hit a record 3% share among the overall automotive market, pulling the full-year share further up, ending 2017 at 2%. Looking into 2018, I think we should see the plug-in share end around 4% share, with the last months of the year even reaching some 6%.

In December, Tesla had its usual last-month-of-quarter peak performance, but this time the resurgent Renault Zoe resisted the Tesla tide and won the Best Seller title anyway, thanks to 3,380 deliveries.

Interestingly, the biggest surprise in December didn’t reach the December top 5, ending the month at #6. The Smart Fortwo ED scored 1,707 sales, by far the nameplate’s best performance ever. It seems the tiny two-seater is experiencing overwhelming demand, with the Smart EV already having a 6-month waiting list and suffering from a recurrent problem: “Not enough batteries.”

Monthly Model Ranking
#1 Renault Zoe — December marked a return to form for the French hatchback, growing 18% year over year (YoY), to 3,380 registrations. That made it the car’s best performance since June. Let’s hope the Renault EV doesn’t suffer from further production hiccups and delivers enough units to satisfy demand from now on. As for individual country performances, besides the usual good result at home (1,652 registrations), there were also big numbers in countries like Germany (301 registrations), Norway (422 registrations), and Spain (168 registrations).

#2 Tesla Model S — Mostly thanks to Norway (1,026 registrations, its best result there in 32 months), the Californian was in second place in December, with boatloads of S’s arriving to Europe (starving some Asian markets) and deliveries up a whopping 74% YoY, to 2,451 total registrations. Aside from the Norwegian specific case, it appears the Model 3 reveal not only didn’t hurt sales, but actually helped them. Perhaps many buyers preferred not to wait and bought the older, bigger, more expensive model instead of waiting for ages for the Model 3 to cross the pond. Looking at individual countries, besides Norway’s undisputed contribution, the Netherlands (400 deliveries, its best result in 4 years!) and Germany (213 deliveries) were also heavy contributors. Overall, it was a generally positive month throughout the continent for the electric sports sedan. Looking ahead, expect deliveries to return to more regular levels, but the end of 2018 could imply falling sales, as buyers see the Model 3 arrival getting closer and closer…

#3 Tesla Model X — The ugly duckling of the Tesla stable had an opportunity to shine in December, growing 42% YoY to a record 2,156 registrations and ending the month on the podium. If the record sales in Norway (1,429 deliveries) were the main driving force, other markets also impressed, with the Netherlands and the United Kingdom posting three-digit tallies. The SUV/minivan-that-thinks-is-a-sports-car is profiting from incoming improvements (e.g., second- and third-row seats are now foldable…) and might start to leave the long shadow of older brother Model S.

#4 BMW i3 — The German Stormtrooper Hatchback was up 9% in December, to 1,979 registrations, a result explained by deliveries of the facelifted version starting, but note that it is still in an early production phase. Still, it was enough to secure another top 5 presence, and expect deliveries in 2018 to continue the growth path. Looking at individual countries, strong results in Norway (512 registrations, all BEV) and Germany (scoring 562 registrations) carried the day, with Austria (124) and France (177) also helping along. Looking into 2018, expect deliveries to pick up in the coming months as BMW returns to full production in its Leipzig plant and delivers as many i3 and i8 as the factory can pump out.

#5 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV — After a close race with the Smart Fortwo ED(!), the Japanese SUV managed to secure the 5th spot in December even though sales were down 23% YoY, to 1,837 registrations. Despite the setback, the Mitsubishi model continues to profit from its unique mix of space, AWD, range, and affordability (€40,000), which make it popular in markets like the UK, Norway, Sweden, France, and Germany. In the long run, it is not certain that the Japanese SUV can keep up with the general growing sales trend and stay among Europe’s top sellers. We’ll see.

December
2017 — Full Year
EV Market Share

Renault Zoe
3,380
31,410
10%

BMW i3
1,979
20,855
7%

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
1,837
19,189
6%

Nissan Leaf
486
17,454
6%

Tesla Model S
2,451
15,553
5%

Volkswagen Passat GTE
1,291
13,599
4%

Volkswagen e-Golf
1,369
12,895
4%

Tesla Model X
2,156
12,630
4%

Mercedes GLC350e
975
11,249
4%

BMW 225xe
919
10,805
4%

BMW 330e
1,180
10,117
3%

Volkswagen Golf GTE
983
9,267
3%

Audi A3 e-Tron
616
8,356
3%

Volvo XC90 T8
725
7,847
3%

Mercedes C350e
399
6,861
2%

BMW 530e
825
6,143
2%

Hyundai Ioniq Electric
669
6,117
2%

BMW X5 xDrive40e
553
5,944
2%

Kia Soul EV
558
5,551
2%

Smart Fortwo ED
1,707
5,191
2%

Others
8,680
69,110
23%

TOTAL
33,738
306,143
100%

2017 Ranking —
Renault Zoe Wins #1 Best Selling EV Model Award,
BMW Wins #1 EV Manufacturer Award
The year 2017 crowned the Renault Zoe as the best-selling plug-in car in Europe, for the second time in a row, thanks to 31,410 registrations. That’s an increase of 43% compared to 2016. Silver went to the ever improving BMW i3, winning its first podium position with 20,855 registrations. The two-time winner Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV ended the year in 3rd, its lowest standing ever since it landed, what, 400 years ago — in 2013. Having seen its sales drop 10% compared to 2016, and an astounding 39% relative to 2015, are wrinkles showing on the Mitsubishi plug-in hybrid? Still, the Japanese SUV was the best-selling plug-in hybrid for the fifth time in a row, and with no other PHEV selling at the same pace, expect it to remain the plug-in hybrid king throughout 2018.

Speaking of 2018, the Zoe and i3 are sure to run with the VW e-Golf and others (Smart Fortwo ED?) for podium positions, while the first position is sure to go to … the new Nissan Leaf. Hot on the heels of 10,000 orders in Europe alone, the facelifted version will not only be the strongest candidate for the best seller award, but will also expand EVs further into the mainstream buyer market.

But back to December, the last month of the year hasn’t brought many changes to the 2017 ranking, with the most important being the Smart Fortwo ED jumping enough seats to reach the top 20, while the 2017 Rookie of the Year, the BMW 530e, climbed to #16.

In the strong sales month, several models hit record performances. Besides the aforementioned Smart Fortwo ED having a smashing month and the Model X reaching a new deliveries record, two recently arrived Volvos have impressed, beating their own records: The XC60 PHEV registered an amazing 1,213 units, earning the ninth place in December, while the S/V90 PHEV twins had 594 deliveries.

Another rising star bubbling up below the top 20, the Porsche Panamera PHEV, despite struggling from a common disease (not enough batteries…), still registered 717 units last month. And the Mini Countryman PHEV, with 752 registrations in December, had yet another record month.

Looking at the manufacturer ranking, BMW (18, down 1%) won the class trophy, repeating its 2016 title, followed by Volkswagen (12%) in second place. Renault (11%, down 1%) took the last spot on the podium. Interestingly, the 2016 podium was exactly the same…

Off the podium, Tesla (9%) was 4th and Mercedes (8%) was 5th, replacing Nissan and Mitsubishi in the 2017 ranking.

US Electric Car Sales
December 2017

With Tesla’s slower than expected Model 3 production ramp, the electric star of 2017 (in many respects) didn’t shine very brightly on the sales spreadsheet. In fact, it came in just below the Ford Focus Electric on the year-end sales tally.

However, it’s two older siblings — the Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X — appear to have led US electric car sales*. Yet again, these numbers demonstrate some of Tesla’s competitive advantages not because they took home gold and silver, but because they actually competed (very well) in their respective classes. Their positions at or near the top of their classes would be like the Chevy Bolt and Nissan LEAF being the top-selling small hatchbacks.

Yes, it will be a bigger achievement when the Model 3 ramps up and takes over a much higher selling segment than the Model S and Model X fit into. All in time.

For now, looking back on the sales, 2017 was actually a rather odd year. It’s a hodgepodge of vehicles on the top of the ranking. You’ve got the high-class, high-cost, fully electric Model S and Model X. Then you’ve got the small, unassuming, bland, but practical and packed with LG Chem batteries Chevy Bolt. Then you’ve got a couple of solid but different plug-in hybrids that fit fairly popular car sizes and needs (the Toyota Prius Prime and Chevy Volt). Then you’ve got the Nissan LEAF barely holding on before a refresh to rank above two more plug-in hybrids, but these less available and less compelling on the electric front than the Toyota Prius Prime and Chevy Volt (the Ford Fusion Energi and Ford C-Max Energi). And then you’ve got the super fun, but a bit odd (and expensive), BMW i3.

I think the story will look much different in 5 years, when the market will hopefully be mature enough that the classes of car on the top 10 list look more like the classes of car on the overall top 10 list (..