DPA Scene from remake “Blade Runner 2049” It should become “our best product ever”. So had Elon Musk at the presentation of the recent business figures a project called “Cybertruck” advertised, an electric pickup reportedly. Now the Tesla boss gives speculation new food. The car will be showcased on November 21, just before the start… Continue reading Elon Musk wants to present “Tesla’s best product”: Model Blade Runner – Tesla announces “Cybertruck”
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Tesla [TSLA] FUD: Demand
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Published on November 5th, 2019 |
by Frugal Moogal
Tesla [TSLA] FUD: Demand
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November 5th, 2019 by Frugal Moogal
The goal of this series is to examine current topics being written about Tesla [TSLA] that appear to be stirring up “Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt” (or FUD). The plan is to try to provide reasonable analysis about the validity of the claims. I generally do not link to the articles that “inspire” me to write this, as I do not wish to reward analysis I feel is poor with increased traffic. However, I will freely admit that my analysis may contain incorrect assumptions, and will do my best to acknowledge them in future articles.
I wasn’t planning on writing this article originally. However, after the incredibly positive Tesla Q3 earnings call, Tesla released its 10Q document with more detail and it started a whole new round of debate from analysts centered around a few things, the biggest being that sales in the United States fell 39% in the third quarter compared to a year ago.
This “problem” has such a stupidly obvious reason that I figured people would move on quickly, yet I am still seeing articles written daily from different sites stating that demand is falling in the US, and how this is a huge problem.
Spoiler: It’s not. But, before I give the reasoning, my usual reminder:
As of about a month ago, I now own 15 shares of Tesla stock. I am open to increasing my position in the company, although I have no plans to do so at this point in time. I would not suggest anyone use the following article as their sole data point to decide to invest nor sell shares in Tesla. I write these articles simply to give a Tesla-investor’s perspective into how I analyze the company.
Demand
Let’s first look at actual US demand. We recently hosted another article about demand on CleanTechnica that looked at the problem a bit and concluded demand is strong. It also included the following chart from InsideEVs, which it cited as the evidence that bears are using to bolster the “lack of Model 3 demand” theory:
Source: InsideEVs Plugin Scorecard, EVANNEX
And look at that, demand is down, right?
Well, first, let’s be really clear — demand is different than sales. While I feel that this is obvious, apparently it is missed by a bunch of people. Let me explain it like this:
Through at least Q3 of 2018, Tesla was selling cars in the US to people who had put their money down as a pre-order. I know this for a number of reasons, including that I put money down on a Model 3 more than a year and a half after it’s reveal, and Q3 2018 was when my car was delivered. In fact, from following multiple pre-order lists, Tesla owner groups, and so on, almost everyone who had pre-ordered and requested a long range version of the car was contacted in Q3 2018 to take delivery, and the few people who weren’t were contacted early in Q4.
What does this have to do with demand and sales? In Q3 2017, Tesla sold 222 Model 3s. Not because demand wasn’t there, but because Tesla only made 222 Model 3s to sell. I would guess that demand in Q3 was about 79,896 cars (which is the cumulative sales of the Model 3 between launch and the end of Q3 2018) as those sales were largely to people who pre-ordered and were willing to wait for the car to become available. Had Tesla had 80,000 Model 3s to sell in Q3 2017, I think the company would have done so.
In other words, as long as demand outpaces the quantity you have to sell, the sales numbers don’t represent demand.
At the same time, Tesla was really only delivering the Model 3 to the US market at this time. A big part of the reason for this was that they were trying to meet the pent up demand while the tax credit was still fully available, which, because of the poor way that it is implemented caused demand to spike in Q4 of 2018 as buyers (correctly) realized that the tax credit would be going away and they should purchase beforehand. Tesla, knowing it could sell those cars for a slightly higher price, had a large incentive to push sales to capture the tax credit and any additional revenue that it helped to bring.
In Q1 of 2019, Tesla dropped the price of the Model 3 by $2,000 in response to the beginning of the reduction of the federal tax rebate. Tesla stock dropped almost 7% the day this happened (I wrote about it here!) even though the price for the end user actually still went up by $1750.
Since Tesla knew the company pulled forward demand that might have otherwise waited until Q1 of 2019, Tesla used Q1 to focus on overseas sales, and only sold ~22,500 vehicles in the US. At the end of February 2019, Tesla introduced the Standard Range Plus variation of the Model 3, which started delivery in Q2 of this year.
Some of the sales in Q2 may have been from people who had pre-ordered the car and been waiting to get the cheaper variation. Although, between the tax credits and the Mid Range vehicle being introduced in October of 2018, I think there were very few pre-orderers who would have opted to wait.
Conclusion
Anyway, what’s the point of all of this? Simply this: it’s nearly impossible to separate the demand of the Model 3 from the sales of the Model 3 because sales have been supply restricted, the tax credits have shifted demand patterns, Mid-Range and Standard Range variations of the car capitalized on different potential demand segments, and so on.
Perhaps the first quarter that sales were less impacted by all the different shifting issues was Q2 2019, in which case we really only have two quarters of data to look at, which show sales declining from 45,225 to 44,000, or about 2%. Which is completely immaterial.
Additionally, Tesla sells its cars to a worldwide market, meaning that demand in one market doesn’t matter as much, and it could (and should) play with demand factors in other countries to be able to sell as many vehicles as possible at any time for the highest price throughout the world. For instance, lately, Tesla has been prioritizing sales to the Netherlands due to a tax incentive that reduces significantly at the end of the year. And Tesla should — if that tax incentive helps the company sell at a slightly higher price, that additional money helps Tesla accelerate other product lines. The fact that the US delivery estimate when ordering a new Tesla has been pushed out, to me, shows that Tesla is prioritizing markets where it can earn the largest margins, not that demand is softening anywhere.
As an investor, that is exactly what I would want them to do.
FUD articles are continuing to use demand as a bogeyman because you can spin the data for demand any way you want to. After originally thinking these FUD articles would go away because of how obvious the different incentives, tax credits, product variation introductions, and pre-order list made this FUD transparently baseless, I’m now guessing we’ll keep hearing this stuff for a few more quarters. If Model 3 worldwide sales continue to grow as Gigafactory 3 comes online, as I expect they will, I think we’ll see this particular issue finally be put to rest.
I hope so, at least.
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About the Author
Frugal Moogal A businessman first, the Frugal Moogal looks at EVs from the perspective of a business. Having worked in multiple industries and in roles that managed significant money, he believes that the way to convince people that the EV revolution is here is by looking at the vehicles like a business would.
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Tesla Pickup Truck Debut Date Confirmed: November 21
The debut will take place in Los Angeles. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has just officially confirmed that the hugely anticipated Tesla truck will be revealed on November 21 in Los Angeles. InsideEVs first revealed this potential debut date in late October via a spot-on estimate gleaned by our good friend Sean Mitchell. As it turns… Continue reading Tesla Pickup Truck Debut Date Confirmed: November 21
Nio and Mobileye for autonomous e-driving
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Tesla Model Y & Model 3 Visual Comparison — Side by Side, Morphing, More
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Published on November 5th, 2019 |
by Iqtidar Ali
Tesla Model Y & Model 3 Visual Comparison — Side by Side, Morphing, More
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November 5th, 2019 by Iqtidar Ali
Originally published on X Auto.
The Tesla Model Y compact SUV is the next mass-production electric vehicle from Tesla Inc. (TSLA). With every passing day, the sightings of the Model Y are increasing around the Tesla HQ highways of California.
One such picture was taken by Mario Borisov (Facebook) when a Tesla Model 3 and Tesla Model Y were pouring juice into their battery packs side by side at a Supercharger station in Centralia, WA. The size difference of both vehicles is very much visible from the front.
Seeing a Model Y in Washington advocates the opinion that the Model Y is now getting tested on long runs as well (more images below).
The height of the Model Y, being a CUV, is greater than Model 3’s, which makes the driving position in a Model Y higher and means better road visibility, even though the flat-dash design of the Model 3 still makes for excellent visibility out the windshield.
The Model Y’s additional height also suggests a deeper front trunk, and the length of the Model Y is more than the Model 3, which can give it more space in the trunk. This makes the Model Y a more practical car, with 66 ft³ of max cargo space vs. the Model 3’s meager 15 ft³. The cargo space is even bigger than the Tesla Model S’s, which has 58.1 ft³ of cargo storage volume (rear seats down).
I have created the following animated GIF with the help of Tesla’s online vehicle configurator images to show a Tesla Model 3 being morphed into a Tesla Model Y (it looks like the Model 3 is getting taller and fatter):
Of course, the chrome delete on window trims, door handles, and even the side repeater emblem look great on the Model Y. Perhaps the world is now tired of the “chrome” thingy? A good refreshing change by Tesla.
The following image by @TeslaForLife also gives us a good idea of the side profile visual comparison between the Model 3 and Model Y. The Model Y has larger wheel wells, and on the 19″ wheels, the tire profile is not as low as on the Model 3.
Tesla Model Y Latest Spottings
Featured image: White Tesla Model Y with purple nose, by Kyle Field | CleanTechnica
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About the Author
Iqtidar Ali Iqtidar Ali writes for X Auto about Tesla and electric vehicles. A true car enthusiast since his childhood, he covers his stories with an utmost passion, which is now guided by the mission towards sustainability.
With over 1 decade of website development experience, he’s also our IT resource at hand. He also writes about tech stuff at UXTechPlus.com occasionally.
Iqtidar can easily be reached on Twitter @IqtidarAlii (DM open for tips, feedback or a friendly message) or via email: iqtidar@xautoworld.com.
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Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus Now Supercharges At Up To 170 kW — Charts!
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Published on November 5th, 2019 |
by Dr. Maximilian Holland
Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus Now Supercharges At Up To 170 kW — Charts!
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November 5th, 2019 by Dr. Maximilian Holland
The latest Tesla software update (2019.36.1) has unlocked the full DC charging potential of the Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus (SR+). The Model 3 SR+, with this update, has a 170 kW charging peak, up from the previous 100–105 kW peak. This means that the SR+ battery charge rate (C-rate) is now approximately in line with that of the Model 3 Long Range variants, albeit scaled for the different battery size.
We’ve recently covered several of the new features enabled by the 2019.36.1 software update. A key new feature for Model 3 Standard Range Plus owners is the significantly boosted DC peak charging power. We don’t yet know the exact shape of the new charging curve for the SR+, but it’s very likely to be a scaled down version of the charging curve for its Long Range (LR) siblings.
For background, current TMC forum estimates put the SR+ battery pack size at 54.5 kWh usable, and the LR at 74.5 kWh usable. The respective peak Supercharging of 170 kW and 250 kW suggests that the LR battery may still be allowed to work at a slightly higher peak C-rate (3.36 vs 3.12 C) compared to the SR+, about 8% higher. Outside of this short peak, however, the SR+ battery is likely exposed to similar overall C-rates to the LR battery over a full charging cycle, making only a minor difference between the two pack sizes in terms of % state of charge added during a typical mid-trip charging session.
My previous data estimated that an optimal 20 minute Supercharger V3 session (assuming starting from 10%) adds 63.1% charge to the Model 3 LR battery. I’ll assume the SR+ should add a slightly lower 60.7% to its battery over those 20 minutes. If these are fair guesses, let’s look at what the new 170 kW Supercharging rate might therefore entail for road-trip readiness. We scale the EPA highway range of the SR+ in line with the recent 250 mile EPA combined range upgrade (I include the Kona EV and Niro EV in the graph for more context):
(A metric version of this chart is available at the foot of the article.)
Being capable of covering 3 hours of highway driving from full, then adding a further ~2 hours in just 20 minutes of DC charging is a very decent result for the SR+. It’s also a good boost over what was typical with the previous 100 to 105 kW peak Supercharging speed. Obviously, the Model 3 Long Range variants remain the ultimate road-trip-ready EVs, capable of driving for close to 4 hours from full, and then adding over 2½ hours more highway range in just 20 minutes of charging. In the real world, all Model 3 variants are highly capable of making comfortable road trips.
We don’t yet know exactly how the new higher power charging rate will translate to the base Tesla Model 3 Standard Range, but it should scale in a similar way to what we are seeing for the SR+ and LR variants.
Note that for occasional road trippers living in areas well served by 100+ kW CCS infrastructure, the Kona EV and Niro EV are also capable of making longer journeys — especially for young families taking 30 or 40 minute breaks at regular intervals anyway — and are all-around much better cars than gas-powered “alternatives.”
Remember that all EVs are capable of starting a long journey directly from home with a “full tank” (full charge) — something that no gas vehicle can do unless you have a fuel pump installed at home (not advisable).
Are you a Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus owner? What do you think about the new 170 kW peak charging rate? Please share your thoughts in the comments.
Article images courtesy of Tesla and author’s own work.
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Dr. Maximilian Holland Max is an anthropologist, social theorist and international political economist, trying to ask questions and encourage critical thinking about social and environmental justice, sustainability and the human condition. He has lived and worked in Europe and Asia, and is currently based in Barcelona. Follow Max on twitter @Dr_Maximilian and at MaximilianHolland.com, or contact him via LinkedIn.
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Elon Musk pitches Tesla electric pickup truck to the US military
Elon Musk briefly talked about and sort of “pitch” the idea of the Tesla electric pickup truck, now also known as the ‘Tesla Cybertruck’, to the US military. Tesla’s CEO made the comment during the ‘Air Force Space Pitch Day’ in San Francisco yesterday. He was primarily talking about his efforts at SpaceX, which is… Continue reading Elon Musk pitches Tesla electric pickup truck to the US military
BMW’s Version of Scare Tactics is Elon Musk
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Published on November 5th, 2019 |
by Johnna Crider
BMW’s Version of Scare Tactics is Elon Musk
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November 5th, 2019 by Johnna Crider
BMW’s version of scare tactics for its employees is Elon Musk, and I am cracking up laughing over this article, which turns out to be from 2017, by Financial Review. When I first read it, I thought it was a post-Halloween joke or something, but alas, BMW is pretty serious about putting the fear of Musk into the hearts of its workers.
As noted above, the article is a couple of years old, and like most older articles, it provides some insight as to Tesla’s role in the industry and how it has evolved. In this case, let us hope that BMW has discovered other ways to inspire their employees. The article opens up with a very descriptive scene: a bright auditorium, an abandoned airfield somewhere in Germany with rows of men and women staring at a giant screen.
As an image of Elon Musk passes by, the speaker says, “We’re in the midst of an electric assault. This must be taken very seriously.” One would think we are at war. You have the hidden bunker, the army of men and women being prepared by their leader, who is giving them some type of speech. I almost wanted to get up and yell some type of battle cry when I read the first few lines of that article.
All jokes aside, one has to consider the fact that, well, in 2017 at least, BMW was using fear to scare its employees to do a better job — seriously. (Disclosure: we don’t have direct confirmation of this.)
Why Perceive Tesla & Electric Vehicles As A Threat?
Well, because they are, and this is why these scare tactics are being used. Tesla represents a new age, the dying of the old and the birth of new, more technologically advanced modes of transportation. The kicker is that Tesla isn’t even trying to steal customers, but is simply trying to advance us to a better way of using energy. The reason many auto companies can’t compete with Tesla is that Tesla isn’t even playing the same game as they are.
Tesla reinvented the game. In order to play, you have to know the rules. What are the rules? Well, what does the average Tesla owner want in comparison to the average BMW owner want? What do the average Tesla owner and the average BMW owner have in common? Therein lies a kernel of information.
Remember, Tesla isn’t just about cars. Let’s look at a tree, for example. It wasn’t always a tree. It started out as a seed. The tree grew roots and eventually rose from the depths of the earth to reach out and touch the sky. It touches the sky with its branches — leaves and flowers. It bears fruit.
Tesla is this tree. It started as a car company and grew into something else. It has vehicles, but also provides solutions for home electricity. Each product of Tesla is like the parts of the tree. The Roadster is the seed that sprouted roots. All the other car companies are just blades of grass surrounding the giant oak tree that looms over them. They can not compete because they are an entirely different species of plants.
How To Beat Tesla’s At Its Game
First, you need to understand that for Tesla, it’s not an actual game. It’s a mission, a way of life, and a reinvention of the way things are done. To succeed at this “game,” you need to understand the rules.
Rule number one: Recognize that change is inevitable.
Rule number two: Automakers need to realize it’s not about them, and let that ego go. Tesla isn’t out to destroy you. Tesla’s out to help you better yourself. See what you can do better, and do it.
Rule number three: Don’t forget the first two rules. Now go and evolve. Instead of using scare tactics and fear, learn the ways of your “enemy” and grow as a company.
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About the Author
Johnna Crider Johnna Crider is a Baton Rouge artist, gem and mineral collector, and Tesla shareholder who believes in Elon Musk and Tesla. Elon Musk advised her in 2018 to “Believe in Good.”
Tesla is one of many good things to believe in. You can find Johnna on Twitter
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Here’s Everything TopSpeed Knows About The Tesla Model S Plaid
Our “Everything We Know” is hard to match, but these guys have made a solid video presentation on the topic. We are very proud of the “Everything We Know” articles we produce about hot vehicles that are on their path to world première. We have helped many readers decide if it was worth waiting for… Continue reading Here’s Everything TopSpeed Knows About The Tesla Model S Plaid
Take a peek inside Lyft’s lab where 400 engineers are working on self-driving cars – CNBC
Lyft, the second largest ride-hailing service in the U.S., once helped disrupt the taxi industry. Now, the company is working hard to avoid being disrupted itself as self-driving cars turn from sci-fi into reality. According to Taggart Matthiesen, vice president of product at Lyft’s Autonomous Group, the company has assigned around 400 of its engineers… Continue reading Take a peek inside Lyft’s lab where 400 engineers are working on self-driving cars – CNBC