Tesla – Page 2664 – I wish I had more to offer

Tesla CEO urges employees to ‘catch up’ to hit delivery record

(Reuters) – Tesla Inc has “a lot of catching up” to do but still can achieve a record quarter, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk wrote in a new email that was reviewed by Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A Tesla logo is seen at a groundbreaking ceremony of Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory, China, Jan. 7, 2019. REUTERS/Aly Song… Continue reading Tesla CEO urges employees to ‘catch up’ to hit delivery record

$50 billion VW battery plan could need revamp after Samsung cuts back

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Volkswagen, with its plan to build 22 million new electric cars across 70 models by 2030, is ground-zero for concerns over battery supplies.

As more automakers get serious about building lots of electric cars, there are indications that supplies of batteries to power all those cars aren't ramping up as quickly, leading to shortages of batteries, increased competition, restricted sales of some EV models, and potentially rising prices (or at least flattening their trend toward affordability).

READ THIS: VW boosts electric car plans with more models, 22 million EVs in 10 years

Now Bloomberg reports that VW's deals for $56 billion worth of batteries for all those upcoming electric models are in jeopardy as Samsung cut its supply agreement with the automaker after disputes over timing.

Samsung was slated to supply batteries for up to 200,000 or more electric VWs based on assumptions by Bloomberg of 100-kilowatt-hour battery packs, a little bigger than those in the Audi e-tron that just went on sale, and the size of the largest batteries in Teslas. Since many of VW's will use smaller battery packs of 48 kwh, the change could affect many more cars.

2019 Audi e-tron battery pack

VW had named Samsung a supplier for electric models it plans to build in Europe, along with LG Chem (which supplies batteries for the Audi E-tron quattro), and SK Innovation—and for other markets, CATL. Reports have persisted since last fall of battery shortages and price disputes between VW and LG Chem that have affected production of the E-tron at Audi's factory in Belgium.

DON'T MISS: Could battery lawsuits, material shortages delay some EVs?

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has also named limitations of battery supplies from its partner Panasonic as a constraint on production of the Tesla Model 3.

A report from Benchmark Minerals in April showed that lithium-battery supplies could increase by 50 percent a year between now and 2023—that is, if the supply of battery materials can keep up.

CHECK OUT: Report: Battery shortages lead to Audi E-tron production delays

Last year the Trump administration named lithium, cobalt, and other materials for electric-car batteries among “critical minerals” that the U.S. needs to develop domestically and for which it hopes to speed up mining permits.

Following the E-tron from VW's upscale Audi brand, the first electric car in VWs' new lineup of EVs is expected to be the ID 3, which is expected to go on sale late this year.

Fremont Factory Being Prepped For Tesla Model Y Production, Model S Refresh

Tesla is reportedly gearing up for Model Y production in Fremont. There will be changes on the Model S/X production lines as well. Tesla is expected to produce the new Model Y at the Fremont factory according to a CNBC report, which also hints an upcoming Model S refresh. Tesla officially hasn’t announced where it… Continue reading Fremont Factory Being Prepped For Tesla Model Y Production, Model S Refresh

Tesla Order Rate Surges 25% Worldwide, 116% In North America, According To New Data

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Published on May 29th, 2019 |

by Michael Grinshpun

Tesla Order Rate Surges 25% Worldwide, 116% In North America, According To New Data

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May 29th, 2019 by Michael Grinshpun

While the financial media and analysts continue to question Tesla’s demand on the basis of one unusually “bad” quarter, quarterly data and internal Tesla emails show worldwide order rates are actually up 25% in Q2 versus Q1. Meanwhile, a crowdsourced Tesla order tracker shows US and Canada Model 3 orders are up 116% versus Q1, and website traffic and interest data show that interest in Tesla’s vehicles is higher than in the past.

These data points are especially significant as the stock hits 3-year lows mostly due to speculation about soft demand, resulting in the stock price divorcing from reality for a company whose demand is actually very healthy. Many powerful and influential actors stand to profit from the declining stock price, which directly affects Tesla’s employees’ compensation and Tesla’s ability to raise capital to fund its vision of a sustainable future.

The worldwide order data for the second quarter comes from Elon Musk’s recently leaked internal email, in which he told employees that Tesla has over 50,000 new orders net of cancellations from April 1–May 21. This represents an order rate of about 980 cars per day for all three models (S/3/X) worldwide. This number was underreported in the news about Tesla, partially because it doesn’t fit with analysts and media commentators claiming soft demand, and partially because the number isn’t directly comparable to any other number.

However, it is possible to estimate Tesla’s orders for previous quarters simply due to the way it reports its production and deliveries.

Tesla reports how many cars were delivered and how many were in transit to customers. Cars in transit are defined as ordered cars that have been built and are currently being shipped to a customer. In most recent quarters, Tesla builds the bulk of its cars at the same time or even before the car is ordered, and then assigns the car to a buyer after it leaves the factory. That means that one could calculate the orders in a particular quarter by starting with deliveries in that quarter (in order for a car to be delivered, it must be ordered), and subtracting in-transit cars from the previous quarter (in-transit means the car was already ordered last quarter), and then adding back the in-transit cars from the quarter of interest (which had to have been ordered in that quarter). Finally, we divide by the number of days in the quarter to see the daily order rate.

For example, in Q1, Tesla entered the quarter with 2,907 cars in transit from Q4, delivered 63,000 cars, and had 10,600 cars in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. This implies 70,693 orders in the first quarter over 90 days, or 785 orders per day.

With 980 orders per day in Q2 so far, according to the leaked internal email, that is a 25% increase over the 785 order per day rate in Q1. This methodology for calculating orders is adopted from twitter user @vgrinshpun.

I would note that this methodology will be flawed and actually overestimate orders for quarters in which Tesla started with a significant backlog of orders (a backlog implies some cars have been ordered but not yet built and therefore not captured in the in-transit numbers). However, Q1 2019 is not such a quarter since there was virtually no backlog from the fourth quarter when Tesla pulled out all the stops to deliver as many vehicles worldwide as possible, including in the largest market, the US, before the first step in the tax credit phaseout. It is also discernible from the short wait times for Tesla’s cars that there has not been significant backlog this year. Q4 2018 and Q3 2018 might have had significant backlogs at the beginning of the quarters, so it is likely that this methodology will overstate the number of orders in the quarter, which in fact makes the Q2 order number look even stronger when comparing to those quarters.

There is even more evidence for significantly increased orders in the second quarter versus the first for US and Canada, according to a crowdsourced spreadsheet that tracks orders and deliveries and samples around 1% of all orders per quarter. It is worth noting that participation rates in this spreadsheet decline over time, so the underlying order rate might be the same between two quarters even when the spreadsheet shows a decline in the orders. Despite this slight flaw that makes order rates in more recent quarters appear lower than previous quarters, average daily order rates in Q2 are up 116% versus Q1 in the US and Canada.

Finally, the last piece of data that corroborates Tesla’s increasing demand story is the increasing website traffic, website engagement, website time spent, and overall search interest data from Alexa.com and Google Trends. Discussions of this have been published on both CleanTechnica and Seeking Alpha.

Tesla.com ranking relative to other websites.

“Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest point on the chart for the given region and time. A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term. A value of 50 means that the term is half as popular. A score of 0 means there was not enough data for this term.”

All the available data points to increasing demand for Tesla’s cars, not softening demand as financial media and some analysts often suggest. The takeaway from this is that financial media and analysts often speculate and do not necessarily update their speculations when hard data comes out, leaving everyone else to do their own homework or wait until official data is released to come to conclusions. Another side effect is that Tesla’s stock keeps falling due to speculation about soft demand when the reality is the opposite. Most people would call this an opportunity.

About the Author

Michael Grinshpun Michael Grinshpun is a dual undergraduate and graduate student in economics. He writes about the electric car industry and works on sustainable energy issues. He works on Carbon Free Boston, an initiative to lower Boston’s carbon emissions to zero by 2050, as well as on water utility projects. Previously, Michael has worked in solar consulting and energy facilities.

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Tesla is rejiggering its Fremont factory to build the Model Y SUV and a Model S refresh

Elon Musk, co-founder and chief executive officer of Tesla Inc., speaks during an unveiling event for the Tesla Model Y crossover electric vehicle in Hawthorne, California, U.S., on Friday, March 15, 2019.Patrick T. Fallon | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesTesla is rejiggering its car factory in Fremont, California, to make way for production of the Model Y crossover SUV, as well as a refresh of the Model S with a more minimalist interior design and longer-range battery, according to several current and former employees.
These initiatives could raise costs again for Tesla, just as CEO Elon Musk has vowed to review every 10th page of outgoing expenses, personally. But starting up production of the Model Y in 2019 allows Tesla to tap into the growing SUV segment sooner rather than later, while a Model S refresh would help it maintain or grow its share within the declining market for luxury sedans.
The company has barely begun to place orders for new equipment to manufacture the Model Y, employees said. And while Musk has suggested that Tesla would probably make the crossover SUV in Fremont, Tesla hasn't officially announced that preparations in the factory had begun.
Making way for Model Y production in Fremont will require Tesla to combine Model S and Model X production into one line, according to the insiders. These lines at the car plant take up a significant amount of floor space today, at least partly because the S and X are each made with a lot of parts. The Model X is particularly complicated to build — its features include falcon wing doors that open up, rather than out — leading Musk to liken it to a “Faberge egg. ”
In addition to the Model Y, Tesla is planning on a full refresh of the Model S, which employees say will likely include an interior with the minimalist look and feel of the newer Model 3, the same drive units and seats used in the higher-end Model 3, and a battery that delivers 400 miles of range on a full charge.
The company is aiming for a September start of production for that Model S refresh.
Tesla did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
Tesla has recently been canceling factory tours because of “upgrades” being made to the factory, according to Musk, who didn't say exactly what those upgrades entailed.
Meanwhile, production has already slowed on the current S and X models. In the first quarter of 2019, Tesla laid off a portion of its Model S and X production staff and cut hours for those who remained, as CNBC previously reported. Today, Tesla only manufactures the S and X on day shifts during the week in Fremont. There is no weekend or nighttime production of those cars today, according to the current and former employees.
Last week, Tesla cut prices on its Model S by $3,000 and Model X by $2,000, and rolled out a free supercharging incentive to entice customers, causing some analysts to question whether demand is softening for these older, higher-priced models. This follows a set of upgrades in April that improved the driving range and charging speed for both cars.
On investor calls recently, Tesla reiterated guidance that it would deliver 90,000 to 100,000 cars in the second quarter of 2019, and at least 360,000 in 2019. It has not said how many of these would be Model S, X and Model 3 vehicles or, eventually, Model Ys.
Tesla shares fell more than 10% last week on investors' concerns over demand, profitability and the impact of U.S.-China trade clashes on the company. They recovered slightly after an email leaked in which Musk promised that Tesla was on target to meet its second-quarter goals.
WATCH: How Elon Musk's tweets might be affecting the latest price targets for Tesla
VIDEO7:3607:36How Elon Musk's tweets might be affecting the latest price targets for TeslaSquawk Box

Outside of Tesla, future EV sales in U.S. may be thin for most brands-study

(Reuters) – U.S. demand for electric vehicles, including hybrids, could rise to 1.28 million by 2026, a new study projected on Wednesday, but most brands will struggle to make money on the new models. FILE PHOTO: The 2020 Mercedes-Benz GLC EQC is revealed at the 2019 New York International Auto Show in New York City,… Continue reading Outside of Tesla, future EV sales in U.S. may be thin for most brands-study

Chinese Tesla challenger Nio postpones production of its new ET7 sedan until at least 2020

Chinese Tesla challenger Nio postpones production of its new ET7 sedan until at least 2020 More Chinese electric automaker Nio, which has its U.S. headquarters in North San Jose, says it has no immediate plans to build a concept sedan that it unveiled just six weeks ago at Auto Shanghai 2019. Go to Source

GM plans own large EV charging network in the US, can’t be bothered to invest in it itself

GM confirmed today that it plans to its own large electric car charging network with thousands of fast-charging stations in the US, but the automaker apparently can’t be bothered to invest in it itself. The American automaker confirmed today that it is teaming up with Bechtel, the largest construction company in the US, “to build… Continue reading GM plans own large EV charging network in the US, can’t be bothered to invest in it itself

Byton readies for China production of $45K US-bound electric SUV

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Not too long ago, Byton was another longshot electric vehicle maker with some good ideas. But it’s already outlasted its early hype bubble and is looking increasingly likely to deliver what could be a very enticing combination to three continents—a large, spacious, long-range all-electric SUV with a new kind of interface, at a starting price of $45,000.

What made Byton generate buzz from the start was its announcement at CES 2018 that it was developing its own vehicle operating system, app ecosystem, and interface, banking a lot on the user experience—with “deep integration” details like health monitoring.

While its vivid 48-inch wide-screen system across the entire upper dash drew crowds, a lot of other details then were missing—but those details have gradually been released with enough detail to convince us that Byton has some compelling products in the pipeline.

In an edition of a company supported video blog called the “Byton Inside Reporter” earlier this month, CEO Daniel Kirchert walked through a prototype workshop, where he says last year the company already built 100 early-stage prototypes, built to make sure it can fulfill all the safety and durability requirements.

Byton concept, 2018 Consumer Electronics Show

There he pointed out some of the core attributes of the company’s “skateboard” platform, which will be shared by its first three vehicles and was developed from scratch, including the capability for over-the-air updates that can roll out expanded features, including safety systems and driver aids.

DON’T MISS: Byton brings its big-screen electric SUV back to CES, a step closer to reality

The platform is built around two battery packs, which are mostly carried under the passenger floor, with cells and modules supplied by CATL and capacities of 95 kwh or 72 kwh. In the M-Byte, they’ll equate to a claimed range of 317 miles or 249 miles, respectively, based on very optimistic and outdated European NEDC tests.

One of the noteworthy design points for the platform: The floor will be perfectly flat, and Kirchert points out that the entire air conditioning system has been moved ahead of the cabin—so it won’t take up passenger space.

Kirchert also pointed to the cost-conscious combination of high strength steel and aluminum parts, balanced with the importance of keeping weight down.

Byton M-Byte production interior

Also of note is Byton’s own internal design that allows the steering-wheel touch screen to stay isolated and upright while the driver steers. In seeing the platform laid out like this, we can see how low the cowl and beltlines are relative to the floor—a hint that the production vehicle is going to offer some good outward visibility and sight-lines, even though side pillars from early versions have been thick.

CHECK OUT: Byton reveals self-driving living-room on wheels, the K-Byte, in LA

Kirchert says that the prototypes have already completed the rigors of durability testing, including winter testing in Inner Mongolia, and they’re now doing heat testing. Further, he emphasized quality and safety targets. “I think we use the best of the premium car industry know-how and mindset to make a good-quality car and a safe car—and this has to be done,” he said.

In what sounded like a jab at Tesla, which reportedly went from prototypes to final production in shockingly short order for Model 3, Kirchert added: “These prototypes, the real prototypes, the pre-production trial lot, and the final production; every step is very important.”

Byton M-Byte electric SUV prototype

The next step will be to finish its Nanjing, China, assembly plant, and in two months (July) it will have the first prototypes (and then validation prototypes) coming off the real series-production tools and line.

Byton’s stamping shop can complete a body panel every three seconds and will be one of the fastest such facilities in China, according to the trade publication Robotics & Automation News. And the welding shop, with 335 welding robots from partner Kuka, is 99-percent automated.

The M-Byte will be revealed in production form in July, and will then release the first pricing information and open its pre-order systems. It aims to ramp up series production in the third quarter of this year, and deliveries in China by the end of the year. The K-Byte sedan will follow, and a third model, yet to be teased, is in the development pipeline.

READ MORE: How Byton is developing three electric vehicles at once

When we sat down with chief engineer David Twohig in January—since promoted to chief technical officer—he walked us through some other key details: that the M-Byte will “be a ride car” prioritizing comfort, and that it will be offered in single-motor (rear-wheel drive) or dual-motor (all-wheel drive) versions. Twohig also confirmed that it will use CCS (Combo) DC fast charging, which we anticipate will work at 150 kw or even a little more.

Byton M-Byte and K-Byte concepts

Byton has held many of its financial details close, but in an indication of being smart with limited funds, besides developing one platform for three vehicles from the start it’s turning to Bosch for the vehicles’ power systems and motors. Kirchert reiterated that it plans on an entry price for the M-Byte of roughly $45,000—although options could add a significant amount to that.

As a multi-national effort, including R&D (software and self-driving) offices in California and a design center in Munich, Byton hasn’t adjusted its U.S. plans, or its timeline in light of U.S. tariff tensions. “From the beginning we had this vision to make it a global brand and be firmly committed to this,” summed Kirchert, in a previous video, underscoring that the brand’s on-sale timeline remains in place as late this year for China, mid-2020 for North America, and late 2020 for Europe.

Byton certainly isn’t the first startup EV maker with Chinese connections. But if it can pull off those delivery dates, this brand might actually be the first one to reach the finish line—in U.S. driveways.

52% Of Consumers Likely To Buy An Electrified Vehicle In Canada Within 5 Years

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Published on May 27th, 2019 |

by Paul Fosse

52% Of Consumers Likely To Buy An Electrified Vehicle In Canada Within 5 Years

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May 27th, 2019 by Paul Fosse

Although we reported less than 3 months ago that more education is needed to accelerate EV adoption, a recent survey provides some encouraging news. In a survey commissioned by Toyota Canada this month, 36% said they had “seriously considered buying a more fuel efficient vehicle, such as a hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid electric, or fuel cell vehicle.”

Looking into the future, slightly over half (52%) “say they are likely to buy a more fuel-efficient vehicle in the next 5 years.”

Not surprisingly, those in the rural provinces are the least likely, while the more urban provinces are more likely. More interestingly, the study shows it is rising gas prices that is both prompting a change in summer travel plans and encouraging consumers to reconsider their choice of vehicle.

Although this research shows that older drivers are the least interested in electric vehicles and tend to view the technology as unproven, they are also the demographic most concerned about rising fuel costs. Younger drivers show an increased interest in performance. That suggests EV education targeted toward an older audience should focus on the practical aspects of the EV (low fuel and maintenance costs), while advertising targeted to the younger demographic should lead with the driving experience and improved performance.

It’s hard to say if Canada’s recently added EV incentives, described here, or the regional incentives described in this article have moved public opinion. It could simply be the result of the increased fuel prices. We continue to think the biggest influence on people’s behavior is awareness of both the existence of modern EVs and their advantages — by either advertising, a family member, or a close friend buying one and sharing their experience — but the role of fuel prices is one that should not be forgotten.

Photo of Vancouver downtown by Zach Shahan, CleanTechnica. Photo of Tesla Shuttle Indie Ryan R. Mitchell and his son by Sarah Mitchell.

About the Author

Paul Fosse A Software engineer for over 30 years, first developing EDI software, then developing data warehouse systems. Along the way, I've also had the chance to help start a software consulting firm and do portfolio management. In 2010, I took an interest in electric cars because gas was getting expensive. In 2015, I started reading CleanTechnica and took an interest in solar, mainly because it was a threat to my oil and gas investments. Follow me on Twitter @atj721 Tesla investor. Tesla referral code: https://ts.la/paul92237

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