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Capital One: Value of Luxury Gas Cars Getting Slammed by Tesla Model 3

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Published on October 6th, 2019 |

by Zachary Shahan

Capital One: Value of Luxury Gas Cars Getting Slammed by Tesla Model 3

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October 6th, 2019 by Zachary Shahan

We talked at length about it years ago at a CleanTechnica conference in Berlin. The night the Tesla Model 3 was first shown to the public, it also crossed our minds. Kyle Field and I were on the test track — only sharing the road and driveway with a few Tesla employees, a black matte Tesla Model 3 prototype, a silver Tesla Model 3 prototype, and a couple of other Teslas. In the 20 minute video I shared of that extremely lucky test track experience (but not the 10 minute abridged video), I didn’t interrupt the fun sounds of the test track fog shooters and the smoothly rolling Teslas very much, but while talking with a Tesla employee near the beginning I laughed a bit out of my awe for the beautiful, super fresh Model 3 and what it would mean for the auto industry. I was picturing elite auto giants in the board room of BMW and Audi sobbing. This was a disruptor, a truly disruptive product that would transform the auto industry, starting with the luxury car market.

A couple of weeks later, at our first Cleantech Revolution Tour conference, in Berlin, we discussed a matter that seemed absolutely imminent: a crash in luxury gas and diesel car resale values. The ramifications of a disruptive new electric luxury car that genuinely embarrasses the Audi A4, Mercedes C-Class, and BMW 3 Series are manifold, but perhaps one of the biggest is that strong depreciation of these previous industry leaders could be disastrous for their parent companies and further accelerate the switch to electric transport.

Notably, a crash in resale values means leasing companies have to increase what they charge customers — otherwise, they’ll lose money on the cars over time. Raising leasing prices means that those vehicles become less competitive, which means fewer people leasing.

An employee of one of the largest auto leasing companies in Europe told me a couple years ago that the CEO of the company had already committed to a quick transition to 100% electric vehicles as a result. It would simply be bad business management to walk into a collapsing market and financial crisis. All he had to do was look the superiority of the Tesla Model 3 and reflect on where the market was headed.

Normal new car buyers may be slower to pick up on the market trends. If they didn’t put down money for a Model 3 reservation or at least jump into the crowd once production ramped up, there’s a good chance they’re simply out of touch. So, it should come as a surprise when they bring their 2018, 2019, and 2020 BMW 320i, Audi A4, or Mercedes C300 “luxury automobiles” to auto dealers or the private used car market and find they lost far more value than the consumers anticipated. Nonetheless, that is what’s going to happen, and that is what’s starting to happen.

No, this is no longer just CleanTechnica saying so. It is not simply Teslarati and Teslamondo saying so. It is Capital One saying so. As the non-analyst tweeting above highlights, Capital One now says that the Tesla Model 3 is “wreaking havoc” on the used luxury car market — that is, the used luxury gas and diesel car market. To Tesla owners, the most confusing part of that some people still consider those cars luxury cars. They have horrible, non-luxury drive quality compared to a Model 3. They have horrible, non-luxury tech compared to a Model 3. The don’t meet the safety level or performance of a Model 3. The interiors or cluttered with old technology, knobs, buttons, and an antiquated interior design. Perhaps we’re Tesla fanboys and fangirls, but there are many reasons for that, and the fan population is growing fast.

Nonetheless, it’s both surprising and exciting that such a mainstream, establishment company like Capital One is publishing the news. It does not mince words. Here’s the headline and summary statement:

The report also notes that 22.2% of Tesla buyers are trading in European luxury vehicles when buying their Teslas.

The searing reflection of market trends, perhaps written by a Tesla owner, sounds more like something you’d find on CleanTechnica than in Capital One’s Learning Center:

“The decisions car-buyers make are increasingly on the side of technology—or more specifically, Tesla’s version of it—than the traditional luxury cars that have long been industry benchmarks. What does that mean? Tesla’s sales successes are wreaking havoc on the pre-owned luxury car market. Once-strong demand for European luxury brands like Mercedes, Audi, and BMW is evaporating as buyers that used to spring for premium luxury sedans now want a Tesla. Any Tesla.”

But it’s absolutely true.

Not only are European luxury vehicle owners trading in those cars for Teslas, but the Tesla Model 3 is setting a whole new frame for what is possible from an entry-level luxury car. It is demolishing previous sales records in those markets and competing in the mainstream car market with the likes of the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord — as it should. Good luck, Audi. Good luck, BMW. Good luck, Mercedes.

The Capital One report is about the US market, but the Model 3 is the #1 best selling automobile (of all classes and vehicle types) in the Netherlands and Norway this year. The base version of that car just started getting delivered to many of those markets, and the higher trim is just starting to make its way to Australia, Japan, South Africa, etc. The disruption is just beginning. The signs are clear, and Capital One has even felt compelled to coin a term around this transition:

“In particular, Tesla’s Model 3 went from zero to over 140,000 units faster than any other luxury vehicle had before, and the demand for new Teslas is, in a very real sense, driving the used car market. With buyer after buyer trading in a still new-ish luxury vehicle for a brand-new Tesla, traditional luxury brands appear to be traded-in more frequently than all American and Korean manufacturers combined.

“Tesla now gets European vehicles as trade-ins 22.2% of the time—more than double the industry average of 10.9%. Because of this uptick, the market is becoming flooded with more affordable cars from Mercedes, Audi, BMW and the like—without a corresponding increase in demand.

“We’re calling this The Tesla Effect. It’s strong enough to cause prices to plummet, because the market has an excess supply of used luxury cars.”

It is a great article and analysis from Capital One, even if it comes a few years after CleanTechnica was blasting this message out from microphones and keyboards around the world. Of course, they needed to wait on some proof and robust figures, not in the same market of forecasting and speculation we are sometimes in. The good news is that we are arriving. A short stop for some Supercharging and I’m sure we’ll be back with more exhilarating analysis and fast-paced note-taking.

In the meantime, we should perhaps recognize that Capital One wasn’t the first to use the term “Tesla Effect.” Almost exactly one year ago, Paul Sankey of Mizuho Securities used the term on CNBC while talking about oil stocks. Without a doubt, “Tesla effect” will mean different things to different industries. We’ll keep you updated as recognition of that effect soars.

About the Author

Zachary Shahan Zach is tryin' to help society help itself one word at a time. He spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as its director and chief editor. He's also the CEO of Important Media. Zach is recognized globally as an electric vehicle, solar energy, and energy storage expert. He has presented about cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, Canada, and Curaçao.

Zach has long-term investments in Tesla [TSLA] — after years of covering solar and EVs, he simply has a lot of faith in this company and feels like it is a good cleantech company to invest in. But he offers no investment advice and does not recommend investing in Tesla or any other company.

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Monday Morning Auto News, Oct 07, 2019

Volvo and Geely to Merge Engine Operations in Electric Car Push – Bloomberg: Volvo and Geely to Merge Engine Operations in Electric Car Push Bloomberg
VW in talks to share its electric know-how – The Detroit News: Ford agreed earlier this year to use VW”s main electric-car platform for a high-volume car in Europe
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Move to close training center emerges in midst of GM-UAW contract talks – Freep: Key issues remain on the table between GM and the UAW and one of those is the training center embroiled in part of a federal corruption probe.
Harley struggles to fire up new generation of riders with electric bike debut – CNBC: The bike costs nearly as much as a Tesla Model 3, and aims for a market that does not really exist: young, “green” and affluent first-time motorcyclists.
Mercedes-Benz sales soar to record on back of boost from China – FT: Mercedes-Benz sales soar to record on back of boost from China

Swedish EV firm NEVS to sell final new Saab 9-3 this month – Autocar: An unused crash test model from 2013 will be auctioned to raise funds for sustainable mobility res…
1964 Olympic cauldron returns ‘home’ to Saitama Pref. after touring disaster-hit areas – Mainichi: … diameter and weighs approximately 4 metric tons, was created by local metal worker Mannosuke Suzuki and his son Bungo, both now deceased.
Volvo, Geely to merge combustion engine operations – Reuters: Volvo, Geely to merge combustion engine operations Reuters
New Aston Martin Vantage Roadster: first images released – Autocar: V8-powered drop-top will take on the Porsche 911 Cabriolet with over 500bhp and a price tag around…
Analysis: How China is fuelling Volkswagen’s electric dream – Autocar: Volkswagen”s global ID models will be joined by China-only variants Volkswagen”s ambitious EV p…
Jobless claims up around U.S. amid GM strike – The Detroit News: As 46,000 walk picket lines outside GM facilities in 19 states, thousands laid off because of the strike are waiting for a call to return to work.
When harm comes from safety tech, what to do? – Automotive News: More than 800 motorists have lodged complaints about false positive incidents on Nissan Rogues with automated emergency braking systems.
FCA chief cleans up the messes of a legend – Automotive News: When Mike Manley was thrust into the role of CEO of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles in 2018 as his predecessor, Sergio Marchionne, lay dying, the …
V2X might speed progress on the road to autonomy – Automotive News: At the time, only Tesla appeared to be working towards “fake human” driving, by which I mean, relying on cameras/visible spectrum and using artificial …
Peugeot to ditch GTi badge? – Autocar: Peugeot to ditch GTi badge? NZ Autocar

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Tesla Model 3 = 24% of Small & Midsize Luxury Car Sales in USA*

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Published on October 7th, 2019 |

by Zachary Shahan

Tesla Model 3 = 24% of Small & Midsize Luxury Car Sales in USA*

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October 7th, 2019 by Zachary Shahan

The Tesla Model 3 has taken the US luxury car market by storm. When sales soared through the roof in the second half of 2018, making the Model 3 far and away the best selling luxury car in the country and the best selling car car of any type in terms of revenue, fans were excited for the launch of a new era. Critics, on the other hand, saw it as a temporary boom from early reservation holders that would soon be over, then resulting in a crash in Tesla sales, Tesla financials, and the company as a whole.

The core difference between the fans and the critics seems to rest in how these different followers of the company have expected the general public to respond to the Model 3 and its many benefits. Critics apparently expected a “meh” response. Tesla fans, of course, expected that the market could be huge for a car that has better performance and drive quality than a BMW 3 Series, much better tech than an Audi, and a potential cost of ownership of a Camry or Accord (depending on various individual and market circumstances).

At the moment, while the verdict isn’t final, things are looking good for Tesla and Tesla fans. We don’t know precise Tesla Model 3 sales figures in the US, and even educated estimates are very rough estimates until we get more data from Europe and China, but our expectation is that there were between 40,000 and 50,000 deliveries in the US in the third quarter. On the more conservative side, we’ve estimated 43,000 US deliveries. That blows away sales of any other midsize or small luxury car.

The next two charts are interactive charts. You can click through the circles near the top to go from quarter to quarter. Note that these interactive charts do not work well on all phones. In general, they are best viewed on a computer.

Pulling in data from almost all other auto companies, 43,000 third quarter (Q3) deliveries would mean that the Tesla Model 3 accounted for 27% of all small and midsize luxury car sales in the country (note that we are only talking about cars here, not pickup trucks and SUVs).

Based on these figures and earlier estimates, for the first three quarters of the year, the Model 3’s small & midsize luxury car market share was 24%. The model’s weakest quarter was the first quarter, when Tesla finally started shipping cars to Europe and China, and when US consumer demand was lower anyway due to a 50% reduction in the US federal tax credit for Tesla vehicles starting. (Tesla was the first company to deliver 200,000 electric vehicles in the country, which led to a tax credit reduction from $7500 to $3750 on January 1, 2019. On July 1, that went down to $1875. On January 1, 2020, unless Congress changes something — which seems unlikely with the grim reaper running the show and killing everything in sight in the Senate — the tax credit for Tesla buyers will go away completely, while all other automakers will still benefit from the tax credit because they were electrification laggards. I know, it’s odd.)

While a 24% market share — 1 out of every 4 sales in this market — seems wild, the thing that blows the minds of many Tesla Model 3 owners is that anyone is still buying an Audi A4, Volvo S60, BMW 320i, Mercedes C300, etc. These cars and others in this class don’t match up well against the Model 3 in any important way, and they are much worse in several ways. That said, we know the main reasons why Model 3 sales aren’t higher — most consumers aren’t aware of the car, know very little about the car, haven’t driven or ridden in the car, or have negative misinformation in their heads about Tesla and the Model 3.

One thing to keep in mind, especially now that Capital One has published about it, is that the resale values of used luxury car competitors are suffering now that the Model 3 is on the market in full flow. As resale values of these BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Lexus, Acura, and other luxury cars decline, companies that lease them have to raise their leasing prices in order to cover costs — which makes them even less attractive. Consumers who buy these models and see them drop in value so deeply so rapidly are more likely to reconsider their brand allegiance and perhaps jump ship to Tesla.

Where will Tesla and its Model 3 go from here? We’ll keep you updated as more registration data come in from Europe, China, and elsewhere and as the market evolves.

*Tesla reports quarterly sales and does not break them out by country or region. Eventually, we get registration data from Europe, China (educated estimates at least), and Canada and can then make a more solid estimate of US sales for the quarter, as well as monthly sales estimates. However, it’s a bit early for all of that since we don’t have September numbers from most countries yet. Even our data-loving friend and contributor Jose Pontes of EV Volumes didn’t want to venture out too far on a limb and provide an early estimate that he might have to walk back. That said, looking at previous months’ data, September figures from the Netherlands and Norway, and deeper historical data, I feel comfortable estimating Model 3 sales between 40,000 and 50,000 in the US in the third quarter. For this report, I’ve settled on 43,000.

If you’d like to buy a Tesla Model 3 instead of a Camry, Accord, Civic, or Corolla, and you’d also like to get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging in the process, feel free to use my referral code: https://ts.la/zachary63404.

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