Electric vehicles – Page 9201 – I wish I had more to offer

Peugeot Returns to U.S. to Help People Get Around, but Not With Its Cars – The New York Times

PARIS — Nearly three decades ago, Peugeot abandoned the United States market, stung by years of dwindling sales that were punctuated by a dispiriting 4,291 cars sold in 1990. Two years ago, Peugeot’s parent, the big European carmaker PSA Group, announced its return to the cutthroat North American market. The move stunned some industry observers… Continue reading Peugeot Returns to U.S. to Help People Get Around, but Not With Its Cars – The New York Times

Why Filld shut down mobile fueling in Seattle as it wrestles with fire marshals across the country

(Filld Photo) A few months after launching a pilot in Seattle, mobile fueling startup Filld hit a roadblock. On July 25, the Seattle Fire Marshall ordered the company to stop mobile fueling and handling of flammable liquids, Filld’s core business. Filld stopped its on-demand gas service in Seattle and began negotiating with fire officials, one of… Continue reading Why Filld shut down mobile fueling in Seattle as it wrestles with fire marshals across the country

Greenlots and ChargePoint announce peer-to-peer roaming agreement

Charging networks Greenlots and ChargePoint have formed a roaming partnership that will enable charging across the two networks, giving users access to thousands of additional charging locations throughout North America at no additional cost. Beginning in mid-2019, customers will be able to charge on either the ChargePoint or Greenlots networks without the need to create… Continue reading Greenlots and ChargePoint announce peer-to-peer roaming agreement

Chargepoint partners with Greenlots to expand access for drivers

2018 Kia Niro Plug-In Hybrid charging at ChargePoint station, Santa Cruz, California, Dec 2017
Forget five-minute fill-ups. What seems to drive many electric car drivers crazy is making sure the charger they find has the right connector, how fast the charger is (in kilowatts), and whether they have the right credentials to activate it.

Without a single one of these parameters, you may not be able to charge. (With most charging done at home or at work, however, most electric-car drivers rarely have to visit public charging stations.)

Now the largest charging network, ChargePoint, has announced a roaming partnership with Greenlots, another of the oldest charging networks in the U.S. to allow subscribers to each network use each other's chargers.

READ THIS: ChargePoint users can now access networks in Canada, Europe

Such agreements are accelerating, with ChargePoint also announcing agreements with EV Box in Europe and FLO in Canada in October.

Third-party software integrators such as Hubject are also working to help networks cross-connect, sharing charging locations and use data on each other's apps, for example, and enabling roaming payments.

Charging executives from several networks and other service providers have said they expect the industry to consolidate in coming years, with fewer, larger networks. That could help simplify matters for electric cars drivers.

DON'T MISS: ChargePoint commits to build charging stations for 2.5 million cars by 2025

ChargePoint made a commitment at the Global Climate Action Summit in San Francisco in September to build charging spaces for up to 2.5 million electric cars globally.

Like ChargePoint, Greenlots works to help businesses and individuals install new chargers. The company is working with Electrify America to build out its new nationwide network of DC fast chargers for non-Tesla electric cars.

To match the utility of gasoline, electric cars will have to not only be able to go 300 miles on a charge, but also to charge faster. Agreements such as this one are among the first steps to making that happen.

The Best Selling Electric Vehicles, & When Will Tesla Model 3 Be #1?

Electric Cars
Electric Car Benefits
Electric Car Sales
Solar Energy Rocks
RSS
Advertise
Privacy Policy

Cars

Published on December 25th, 2018 |

by Jose Pontes

The Best Selling Electric Vehicles, & When Will Tesla Model 3 Be #1?

Twitter
Google+
LinkedIn
Pinterest
Facebook

December 25th, 2018 by Jose Pontes

Several people have asked me, “Is the Tesla Model 3 the best selling EV?”

My answer is: Yes, it is the 2018 best selling EV, with over 100,000 units sold.

Okay, but what about the all-time seller? Which is the most common EV globally? The Nissan Leaf? And who will it be in two years’ time? The Model 3?

That’s when I had to check the numbers.

With 5 million plug-ins already sold through last October, the best selling models are starting to reach significant numbers in the automotive world. While the Tesla Model 3 (~103,000 units) and the BAIC EC-Series (~150,000) are all the rage right now, the fact is that both nameplates are still quite new, with the Californian being 16 months old and the Chinese model not much older at 23 months.

As such, the top 3 positions are in the hands of older models, with the youngest one being the #3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV. That model is a couple of months away from celebrating its 6th birthday.

In the lead, we have the Nissan Leaf, which despite all the bad press is doing its work in an effective way, counting almost 376,000 units sold. The original frog-eyed version reached 300,000 units.

Not bad, eh?

The #2 Tesla Model S continues to rack up sales, with 254,000 made so far, and it will still take some time for its smaller sibling Model 3 to reach it.

The sure-value Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (179,000 units) is relatively new to 3rd place, with the Japanese SUV having recently surpassed the Chevrolet Volt.

Gone are the days when the range-extended hatchback was big in the plug-in scene. It was the best selling plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) in 2012, and runner-up in 2011 and 2013.

So, the present day question is answered. As for the coming two years, things get trickier…

While we can more or less predict how the early 2021 picture will look for legacy automakers, the Chinese tidal wave of manufacturers is too unpredictable for me to know how things will be in two years.

And regarding Tesla, things are even more uncertain, as every week (if not every day) there’s something new going on. Sometimes it seems Tesla’s destiny is being written by some Mexican-novela script writers, so much are the twists and turns.

But let’s conduct a futurology exercise.

In order to be in this all-time podium by early 2021, a model needs to sell consistently over 10,000 units per month. By that time, there will be several models selling over that threshold, but most will be fresh nameplates, without enough backlog to pull them into the 500,000-ish units needed to be in the podium.

Looking at the current podium bearers, we can already exclude the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV. By that time, it shouldn’t have more than 300,000 units made, as even if there was enough demand to go further, Mitsubishi production constraints (battery constraints?) would have prevented it from ramping up sales to over 10,000 units/month.

Regarding the Model S, due to its high price and the internal competition of its Model 3 younger sibling, the total number in the beginning of 2021 should be around 380,000 units, but because we are talking about a Tesla, there are too many factors (China, production constraints, new specs, etc.) that add uncertainty to its performance. But more on that later, once we talk about the Model 3…

And then we have the Nissan Leaf. Having already surpassed the 10,000 deliveries/month threshold at times with the 40kWh version, there are few reasons to doubt that the arrival of the 60kWh version will propel the Japanese hatchback to regular 10,000+ units/month performances, once it arrives.

So, we could see the Leaf hit some 650,000–700,000 units by January 1st, 2021.

Now to the current game-changers, the BAIC EC-Series and the Tesla Model 3, the only two nameplates that provide 5-digit/month performances without a sweat.

The Chinese EV should end this year with some 180,000 units made, but BAIC’s city car will face some headwinds in the future, as increased competition — namely, from the compelling BYD Yuan — should steal some sales from it in the long run, so I am betting that the nameplate’s sales should stabilize around 130,000 units per year, ending 2020 with some 440,000 units made.

So now we have two (Leaf and EC-Series) of the three podium bearers by early 2021.

What about the elephant in the room and leitmotif for this article?

There are so many factors that can change the Model 3’s fate and success that I had to make two different scenarios, a Bull one and a Bear one.

In the Bull scenario — no doubt, the one that Tesla fans will be cheering for — one can expect close to 30,000 deliveries in December, thanks to a production rate of 7,000/week, meaning the Model 3 would end 2018 with some 150,000 units on the streets.

For 2019, with the 7,000/week as a basis and a gradual ramp up during the year, aided by the beginning of production at Gigafactory 3 in China later in the year, production should reach some 400,000 units. That assumes demand continues be higher than supply, mostly thanks to the Standard Range arrival in late Q2 and the success of the car in Europe and China, where it will profit from the low/nonexistent import tariffs on cars.

This would allow the Model 3 to surpass the Nissan Leaf as the most common EV in the World by Q4 2019.

By 2020, the Model 3 would build on the previous year’s performance, reaching some 600,000 units. Assuming demand remained strong, thanks to word of mouth and the success of the Model 3 Standard Range in Europe and China, the model could reach one million units on the road before the year of the end.

As for the Bear scenario, the TSLA shorts’ favorite one, the Model 3 will end 2018 with 145,000 units, because Tesla has not achieved a production rate of 7,000/week on a consistent level.

For 2019, in this scenario, Tesla’s demand problems start to appear in North America and the Standard Range version is only available in Q3. Europe and China not enough to compensate lagging demand, especially in China, where the USA/China tariff war seriously hurt Model 3 demand — only 1,000 sales per month. Meanwhile, Gigafactory 3 suffered from delays, with volume production only expected in 2020.

With a more appealing and advanced Model Y presented in 2019, the Model 3 is already experiencing some internal competition, with many prospective customers preferring to wait for the upcoming SUV.

All these setbacks made the company cut back Model 3 production to some 190,000 units/year, making the sedan end 2019 with 335,000 all-time deliveries, below the evergreen Nissan Leaf.

By 2020, thanks to the start of volume production at Gigafactory 3 in China and Standard Range deliveries in Europe, the Model 3 reached 300,000 registrations, but the long-term success of the nameplate is capped by the success of the Model Y, which has been gobbling up production space from its older sibling.

So, by January 1st, 2021, some 635,000 Model 3s will be made in this scenario, which won’t be enough to remove the aging Nissan Leaf from #1, especially with the Japanese car having a much improved generation in 2021. In other words, do not expect the Leaf to leave the throne anytime soon.

Support CleanTechnica’s work by becoming a Member, Supporter, or Ambassador.
Or you can buy a cool t-shirt, cup, baby outfit, bag, or hoodie or make a one-time donation on PayPal to support CleanTechnica’s work.

About the Author

Jose Pontes Always interested in the auto industry, particularly in electric cars, Jose has been overviewing the sales evolution of plug-ins through the EV Sales blog since 2012, allowing him to gain an expert view on where EVs are right now and where they are headed in the future. The EV Sales blog has become a go-to source for people interested in electric car sales around the world. Extending that work and expertise, Jose is now a partner in EV-Volumes and works with the European Alternative Fuels Observatory on EV sales matters.

Advertise with CleanTechnica to get your company in front of our readers.

CleanTechnica Clothing & Cups

Demand for Tesla Model 3 ‘looks very strong into 2019 and beyond’: Analyst

Salwan Georges | The Washington Post | Getty Images
Tesla's Model 3 at the Tesla store in Washington, D.C.

Demand for Tesla's Model 3 midsize electric sedan “looks very strong into 2019 and beyond,” said one analyst Wednesday.

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives said in a note that underlying drivers for the electric vehicle market are likely to push consumers toward Tesla's cheapest passenger car, at a time when many automakers are abandoning sedans in favor of SUVs.

This is a pivotal inflection point in the Tesla story, says Wedbush's Dan Ives
3:05 PM ET Fri, 14 Dec 2018 | 03:46

Demand for the car is likely to reduce the risk Tesla will have to raise capital again in the near future, Ives said. Tesla's capital needs have been an ongoing issue for the company, and Tesla has had to return to the markets several times since it went public in 2010. Ives said he expects Tesla to spend $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion in 2019.

Deliveries to European customers appear to be on schedule, and Ives sees pent-up demand in that market. China also looks like a “major growth catalyst” on the heels of Tesla's recent price cuts in China, he said.

Tesla shares were up nearly 2 percent in premarket trading on Wednesday, pushing its market value to more than $50 billion. In the past 52 weeks, Tesla shares have traded as high as $387.46 and as low as $244.59. The stock is down 5 percent this year, having closed at $295.39 on Monday.

Tesla shares fall 7.6% following price cuts in China and Elon Musk’s promise to reimburse missed tax credits

Monday was a tough day for the U.S. stock market, but Tesla shares were hit especially hard. The stock fell by 7.6 percent after Tesla cut the Model 3’s price in China and CEO Elon Musk promised to reimburse U.S. customers if they miss a tax credit deadline due to Model 3 shipment delays. Reuters… Continue reading Tesla shares fall 7.6% following price cuts in China and Elon Musk’s promise to reimburse missed tax credits

AISIN and DENSO to Form a New Company to Develop and Sell Driving Modules for Electric Vehicles

Aisin Seiki Co., Ltd..DENSO Corporation KARIYA (Japan), December 26, 2018 ― Aisin Seiki Co., Ltd. (AISIN) and DENSO Corporation (DENSO) today announced they have formally agreed to form a new company to develop and sell driving modules used for electric vehicles. The new company is named BluE Nexus and will be established in April* 2019.… Continue reading AISIN and DENSO to Form a New Company to Develop and Sell Driving Modules for Electric Vehicles

Local EV makers drive ecosystem for green mobility in Telangana

As the infrastructure slowly gathers pace, there are about 200 EVs plying on the roads in the Telangana. Hyderabad: Even as the Telangana government hunts for that one big name in the electric vehicle (EV) space that can help fire up the EV ecosystem in the state, many local players are revving up their game… Continue reading Local EV makers drive ecosystem for green mobility in Telangana

The arrests of Stadler and Ghosn shake the global automotive in 2018

Published 12/26/2018 12:14:42 CET Great changes in the domes of the automotive: García Sanz leaves Volkswgen; the ‘visionary’ Musk is replaced in the presidency of Tesla and Zetsche announces his withdrawal from Daimler MADRID, 26 Dec. (EUROPA PRESS) – The arrests of managers Rupert Stadler and Carlos Ghosn have shaken the automotive sector in 2018,… Continue reading The arrests of Stadler and Ghosn shake the global automotive in 2018