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45% of Current Electric Car Drivers Plan to Buy a Tesla Next — #CleanTechnica Report

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Published on November 11th, 2018 |

by Zachary Shahan

45% of Current Electric Car Drivers Plan to Buy a Tesla Next — #CleanTechnica Report

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November 11th, 2018 by Zachary Shahan

Below is one chapter of our new electric car driver report, Electric Car Drivers: Demands, Desires & Dreams.

You’re going to be shocked — the electric car that respondents most frequently said they were most likely to buy next (or for the first time in the case of non-EV drivers) was the Tesla Model 3. Over 100,000 reservations ($1,000 each) were placed for the car in under 24 hours — even before the car was shown. The demand was through the roof and ended up being the single biggest product reveal in history by certain key metrics. So, it is not a surprise in the least that this electric car tops the list of “expected next EV model.”

That said, the Tesla Model 3 didn’t account for the majority of answers, demonstrating that the electric car market is broad and goes far beyond the Model 3. Delving into the less desired models is perhaps more interesting than dwelling on the Model 3’s dominance, since they get much less attention but are still cars that many consumers are eager to place in their garages.

As with our first two EV owner reports, one thing that stands out is how loyal many consumers are to the brands and models they are currently driving. Many Volt drivers plan to get a Bolt, many LEAF drivers plan to get another LEAF, and many Tesla drivers are filling out their family fleets with other Tesla models or are upgrading to the latest and greatest versions of the Tesla vehicles they already have.

For example, 87% of North American Tesla drivers plan to buy another Tesla next, and that is without removing several respondents who said they didn’t intend to buy another car or had no idea what their next car would be. More specifically, 33% of them intended to get a Model 3, 17% a Model Y, 17% a Model S, 16% a Model X, and several even wrote in “Tesla Roadster” or “Tesla Pickup” since those vehicles weren’t on the list of options.

In Europe, the figure was 83%, with 34% choosing the Model 3, 28% the Model S, 13% the Model Y, 8% the Model Y, and 2% the next Roadster.

Back to North America, where 60% of plug-in hybrid respondents said they drive a Chevy Volt, the Tesla Model 3 still won the race for next EV purchase, landing 22% of responses. However, GM models took the next two podium positions, with 16% of respondents planning to buy a Chevy Bolt EV next and 9% a Chevy Volt. The Tesla Model S and Tesla Model Y each scored 4% while the Nissan LEAF and Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV each pulled in 3%. Beyond those options, the remaining responses were spread across several models, and there were again a number of respondents who simply didn’t have a guess about what they’d buy next or didn’t intend to buy another car at all.

Regarding pure electric cars, 30% of North American respondents had a Tesla (meaning 70% had something other than a Tesla) and 29% of European respondents had a Tesla. In other words, the Tesla-to-non-Tesla split was almost identical.

Non-Tesla pure-electric drivers largely drove LEAFs (43%) and Bolts (27%) in North America and LEAFs (34%) and Zoes (25%) in Europe. Other vehicles with fairly strong showings in North America were the Fiat 500e (6%), BMW i3 (5%), Ford Focus Electric (4%), VW e-Golf (4%), and Kia Soul EV (4%). In Europe, the cars at or above 4% of non-Tesla, pure-EV market share were the pure electric BMW i3 (10%), Hyundai Ioniq Electric (10%), Kia Soul EV (6%), and VW e-Golf (5%). (Note: The BMW i3 REx was categorized as a PHEV for the purposes of this report.)

Yet again, this category of drivers expected to buy a Tesla Model 3 next more than any other EV, but the hottest EV on the market pulled in only a quarter or so of responses (23% in North America and 27% in Europe). In North America, another 4% intended to get a Model S next and 4% a Model Y, but the more popular choices for these respondents’ next electric cars were the Chevy Bolt (16%) and Nissan LEAF (14%).

In Europe, other high-demand electric cars included the Nissan LEAF (12%), Hyundai Kona EV (10%), Renault Zoe (6%), BMW i3 (5%), Tesla Model S (5%), and Hyundai Ioniq EV (4%).

The following chart provides an overview of the most popular models for respondents’ expected next EV, broken down by the 6 distinct EV driver groups. There is also one chart for all responses combined, but just displaying the top 30 models.

New to this year’s edition of the report, we also surveyed non-EV drivers. We were very curious how their responses regarding their future electric car (or cars) compared to responses from EV drivers. Note that these respondents were able to choose more than one model, which presumably led some of them to include multiple top options for a single purchase while also allowing some respondents who did intend to buy more than one EV the ability to select all of their expected purchases.

In Europe, a whopping 59% of respondents expected to buy a Tesla Model 3, an impressive 40% expected to buy the Nissan LEAF (presumably boosted by a longer range version of the car expected next year), 22% expected to buy the Hyundai Ioniq EV, 21% expected to buy a Renault Zoe (currently Europe’s top selling electric car), 15% expected to by a Tesla Model S, 15% expected to buy a VW e-Golf, 12% expected to buy the Hyundai Kona EV (not yet on the market), 11% expected to buy the BMW i3, 11% expected to buy the Open Ampera-e, and 10% expected to buy a Tesla Model Y (a car that hasn’t even been shown yet).

In North America, the results were similar, but with some notable differences due to vehicle availability. The top models were the Tesla Model 3 (58%), Chevy Bolt (34%), Nissan LEAF (32%), Chevy Volt (18%), Tesla Model S (15%), and again Tesla Model Y (14%). That’s right, not as many models rose above the 10% marker, but that’s in good part because of how diversified responses were for this segment.

In terms of when they expected to “go electric,” 60% of European respondents expected to do so within the next 3 years while 57% of North American respondents expected to do so in the next 3 years.

To learn more, check out our full 2018 electric car driver report: Electric Car Drivers: Demands, Desires & Dreams.

Compare these results to last year’s report: “23–50% of Electric Car Drivers Plan to Get Tesla Model 3 Next (CleanTechnica Report).”

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About the Author

Zachary Shahan Zach is tryin' to help society help itself (and other species). He spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as its director and chief editor. He's also the president of Important Media and the director/founder of EV Obsession and Solar Love. Zach is recognized globally as an electric vehicle, solar energy, and energy storage expert. He has presented about cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, and Canada.

Zach has long-term investments in TSLA, FSLR, SPWR, SEDG, & ABB — after years of covering solar and EVs, he simply has a lot of faith in these particular companies and feels like they are good cleantech companies to invest in. But he offers no professional investment advice and would rather not be responsible for you losing money, so don't jump to conclusions.

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Tesla — “Apple Of Cars” — Entering Its Golden Age

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Published on November 10th, 2018 |

by Guest Contributor

Tesla — “Apple Of Cars” — Entering Its Golden Age

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November 10th, 2018 by Guest Contributor

Originally published on EVANNEX.
By Charles Morris

Comparisons between Tesla and Apple are nothing new, but with the Silicon Valley automaker poised for a new wave of growth, it’s a good time to revisit the parallels between the two disruptive companies. A recent article from ARK Investment Management explains the similarities in eerie detail.

In 2007, Apple had already existed for three decades, but beginning in that year, a wave of new products — the iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, and App Store — catapulted the company into a new dimension, and caused revenue and market cap to grow tenfold.

Before blastoff, Apple was selling computers, which were widely regarded as a commodity product, mainly to a few niche markets such as audio/video professionals, people who resented Bill Gates and people who just had to be different. However, the company’s strategy of vertical integration and consumer focus — precisely the opposite of the business model that PC makers were pursuing — allowed it to charge premium prices and command fanatical customer loyalty.

ARK Invest Founder and CEO, Cathie Wood, talks about Tesla and points out similarities with Apple (Source: Yahoo Finance)

The parallels to Tesla should already be apparent, but looking at Tesla’s position in 2018, they become even more striking. ARK’s analysts see “the outlines of another Apple in the making,” and point out that “Tesla resembles Apple in three key areas: a strategy of vertical integration, an imminent product inflection, and a business model transitioning from hardware to services.”

Apple’s strategy of vertically integrating hardware, software, services, and retail was very much a contrarian one. In 2007, conventional wisdom was that companies should focus on “core competencies.” Apple’s competitors all specialized in one layer of the stack. However, in a time of rapid innovation, vertical integration can enable a company to get a head start on the rest of an industry by developing key enabling technologies in-house. To give just one example, Apple was able to create the first multi-touch smartphone because it created its own multi-touch system, something no other company was anywhere close to developing.

Vertical integration similarities (Source: ARK Investment Management)

“Tesla picks up on Apple’s vertical integration strategy but takes it further,” write the ARK analysts. “In addition to hardware, software, and retail, Tesla also owns and operates manufacturing facilities as well as a global Supercharger network. Vertically integrating battery pack production at its Gigafactory is why Tesla is the only high-volume EV manufacturer today. Had Tesla waited for the supply chain to catch up, it wouldn’t have been able to launch and scale the Model 3 for years. In our view, this is a key reason why no automaker has released a viable competitor to the Model 3 thus far and why no company will be able to do so until 2020 at the earliest.”

Apple’s spectacular 2007 to 2012 growth was driven by the release of the iPhone, iPad, and the App Store in quick succession. As is the case with Tesla, Apple’s vision of the products it wanted to build was often ahead of current computing, microprocessor, and battery performance. Things started to take off around 2007 because the enabling technologies to build a high-performance handheld computer finally became available. “Having built up decades of software and hardware expertise, Apple was positioned to seize this opportunity and create the blueprint for modern mobile computing,” notes ARK.

Falling cost of lithium-ion batteries (Source: ARK Investment Management)

Like Mac computers in the early 1990s, Tesla’s vehicles haven’t broken into the mainstream, because they are simply too expensive. The main reason for this is battery costs, which are dropping rapidly. ARK estimates that the cost of lithium-ion batteries will fall below $100/kWh, achieving cost parity with gasoline cars, by 2022. Elon Musk has said that he expects to reach this tipping point by the end of 2018.

This cost decline is a big deal, to put it mildly. Once EVs reach cost parity, there will simply be no technical reason for anyone to build fossil fuel cars anymore (although financial and political reasons are likely to keep them on life support for quite a while). “Tesla has spent more than a decade preparing for this moment and, in our view, has the most compelling EV pipeline of any company,” says ARK. “The Tesla Model 3 and Model Y (a crossover SUV) have the potential to catapult EVs into the mainstream, much like the one-two punch from the iPhone and iPad in mobile computing.”

A look at the growth trajectory of both Apple and Tesla (Source: ARK Investment Management)

Tesla’s vertical integration — it’s selling not just a car, but an “ecosystem” of products and services — creates many income opportunities. “In the 2000s, Apple’s iPod+iTunes combination created a dual revenue stream from hardware and music,” ARK notes. “Today, thanks to its massive installed base of iPhones, Apple offers a range of services spanning music subscriptions, cloud storage, and app sales that generates $36 billion annually and accounts for roughly a third of Apple’s market cap. Competitors like Samsung that do not control the customer relationship generate no material revenue from services.”

In ARK’s view, every successful growth company goes through a “golden era” when the stars align and expansion takes place more rapidly than anyone could have foreseen. “For Apple, that time was from 2007 to 2012. For Tesla, we believe the golden era is just beginning.”

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Guest Contributor is many, many people. We publish a number of guest posts from experts in a large variety of fields. This is our contributor account for those special people. 😀

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Germany Plays Catch Up, Pours $1.2 Billion Into EV Batteries

26 M BY WADE MALONE Currently Japanese, Korean and Chinese firms dominate battery cell production According to Reuters, Germany has earmarked $1 billion euros ($1.2 billion USD) to jump start local production of electric car battery cells. The effort is intended to reduce the reliance of German automakers on Asian battery suppliers. This investment would… Continue reading Germany Plays Catch Up, Pours $1.2 Billion Into EV Batteries

California Looks To Stationary Energy Storage As A Solution To Peaker Plants

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Published on November 9th, 2018 |

by Kyle Field

California Looks To Stationary Energy Storage As A Solution To Peaker Plants

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November 9th, 2018 by Kyle Field

Central California electric utility Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) is planning to replace three aging natural gas power plants in its network with stationary energy storage installations from Tesla.

Image credit: Pexels

The approval of the plan to replace three aging peaker power plants with stationary storage installations by the California Public Utilities Commission is the culmination of an effort by the Commission to encourage PG&E to look to stationary energy storage solutions as alternatives to the aging paradigm of natural gas-fired peaker plants.

The effort to transition utilities away from natural gas plants and to stationary energy storage supports the broader state-wide push to source 100% of its electricity from zero-emission sources by 2045, which includes adding 1.3 gigawatts of energy storage to the state’s grid by 2020.

The CPUC approved a plan to install four new stationary energy storage installations in PG&E territory that would see an additional 568 megawatts of new storage being added. The installations are led by an impressive 300 MW/1,200MWh installation by Vistra Energy Corporation that will be the largest battery storage project in the world.

“Vistra is excited for this opportunity to work with PG&E, and the State of California, to develop a world-class battery project on our Moss Landing site, while building industry-leading expertise in the development and commercialization of battery storage assets,” said Curt Morgan, Vistra’s president and chief executive officer. “The Moss Landing battery project will be the largest of its kind in the world and will position Vistra as a market leader in utility-scale battery development.”

esVolta will install and operate a 75 MW / 300 MWh Hummingbird Energy Storage LLC installation in Santa Clara County in Northern California that is planned to come into servce in December of 2020. “esVolta is delighted to be selected by PG&E for the Hummingbird project. PG&E is a leading North American energy company and a key customer for esVolta, and this contract award is an important milestone for our company as we build towards our goal of assembling a large portfolio of utility-scale, advanced energy storage projects,” said Randolph Mann, president of esVolta.

A smaller distributed installation by Micronoc Inc will see an additional 10 MW of capacity being installed across several customer locations to round out the bunch.

Tesla was contracted for the second largest installation of the bunch, with a 182.5 MW facility just to the south of San Jose, California, according to Bloomberg. After the installation by Tesla, PG&E will own the facility in what could be a transition of the operation and maintenance of what are effectively peaker plants from external operators to the utility itself. This highlights yet another advantage of grid scale stationary energy storage facilities which require FAR less maintenance and ongoing care than natural gas peaker plants.

Source: Bloomberg

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Kyle Field I'm a tech geek passionately in search of actionable ways to reduce the negative impact my life has on the planet, save money and reduce stress. Live intentionally, make conscious decisions, love more, act responsibly, play. The more you know, the less you need. TSLA investor. Tesla referral code: http://ts.la/kyle623

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Subsidised plug-in cars driven on fuel

Tens of thousands of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) bought with generous government grants may be burning as much fuel as combustion-engine cars. ​Data compiled for the BBC suggests that such vehicles in corporate fleets averaged just 40 miles per gallon (mpg), when they could have done 130. Many drivers may never have unwrapped their charging cables,… Continue reading Subsidised plug-in cars driven on fuel