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Solar Roofing Is The Focus Of Standard Industries’ New GAF Energy Unit

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Clean Power Published on January 19th, 2019 | by Charles W. Thurston
Solar Roofing Is The Focus Of Standard Industries’ New GAF Energy UnitTwitterLinkedInFacebookJanuary 19th, 2019 by Charles W. Thurston
Boosting solar roofing growth with the DecoTech is the mandate of GAF Energy, a new company formed under the Standard Industries wing. The new entity will assist customers with planning, financing, permitting with utilities, and installation in a streamlined approach, the company says.

“As the largest global player in roofing and waterproofing, we will reshape the way clean solar energy becomes a reality for everyone,” said David Millstone, co-CEO of Standard Industries. The new unit will help focus on the DecoTech product, which GAF began developing in 2008 and first installed in 2017.
The DecoTech is a product midway between a very low-profile Tesla solar shingle and a mounting-bracket supported add-on system. The DecoTech is installed at the same time as a home is partially re-roofed, so that the new roofing helps hide the solar panel. The patented installation process renders the roof watertight.
Unlike Tesla or RGS shingles that are integrated components, the DecoTech system relies on off-the-shelf 60-cell solar panels, to avoid the cost of proprietary manufacturing, the company says. The DecoTech carries a 25-year warranty. An additional lifetime guarantee also is available, which offers extended coverage for labor.
“Our unique design does allow for module level power electronics and we have installs already with MIs and DC optimizers. We will standardize on a power electronics solution but all options are available to us based on our superior engineering,” says Martin DeBono, president of GAF Energy. .
The cost of the DecoTech roof is expected to be on par with standalone solar. “Our unique technology that allows solar to be sold and installed by roofers enables cost savings in sales and install that offsets the increased costs of a solar roof,” says DeBono. That cost is expected to decline with volume to parity, the company suggests.
The cost may also be defrayed with additional offerings from the company, such as monitoring, EV connections, and energy management. “Distributed generation of the future will require seamless integration across storage and EVs and we will have an offering to satisfy that requirement,” says DeBono.
The system will be sold through networks of certified roofers. “We are best positioned to accelerate the growth of residential solar with over a century of waterproofing experience and the largest network of roofing distributors and contractors in the world,” said David Winter, co-CEO of Standard Industries in a January 10 statement.
Using roofers to offer solar will tap the large annual US market for new roofs, a potential pool of 5 million roofs, according to one industry estimate. Of this number only about 300,000 customers opt for solar as well, according to Energy Sage. The US demand for roofing was projected to amount to 268 million squares (a 10 foot by 10 foot area) in 2017, valued at $27.2 billion,” said the Freedonia Group in a 2017 study.
Sageworks, a financial information company, was cited by Forbes recently as saying sales among privately held roofing contractors have increased, on average, 14% in the 12 months ended May 1, 2018.
“The scale of the roofing industry is an order of magnitude greater than the solar industry,” says DeBono. “GAF Energy can now give those customers a simple option: a roof or a solar roof.” While the dollar amount of the roofing market is greater than solar, it also is growing faster; the growth of solar was flat during 2018, although recovery is widely anticipated.
“GAF Energy capitalizes on the historic challenges facing the rooftop solar industry – acquisition and installation costs – and turns them into demonstrable strengths – making it easy for customers to say ‘yes’ to solar rooftops,” said DeBono, in the statement.
The DecoTech system should help retrofit part of the US historic stock of homes roofed with sub-standard roofing material. “The US experienced a number of severe weather events in 2016 that caused extensive roof damage in many parts of the country, necessitating the repair and replacement of thousands of roofs. This surge in re-roofing jobs was in large part due to the fact that many structures are outfitted with roofing materials that do not meet modern building codes for storm resistance,” says a July market analysis of US residential roofing by Research and Markets.
“Going forward, home and business owners will undertake roof renovation projects to replace these older products with more durable materials – such as laminated asphalt shingles, metal roofing, and polymer-modified bituminous membranes – that can better withstand high winds and heavy precipitation,” the study says.
GAF began operations in 1886 and has a network of 5,000 certified contractors. The company manufactures well over 1 million roofs annually in North America. GAF Energy works in partnership with North America’s largest roofing and waterproofing manufacturer, GAF, offering affordable, integrated and aesthetic rooftop solar options to residential and commercial customers.

About the AuthorCharles W. Thurston Charles specializes in renewable energy, from finance to technological processes. Among key areas of focus are bifacial panels and solar tracking. He has been active in the industry for over 25 years, living and working in locations ranging from Brazil to Papua New Guinea.

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As GM Plant Closure Looms In Ohio, Interest In Tesla Grows

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Autonomous Vehicles Published on January 23rd, 2019 | by Guest Contributor
As GM Plant Closure Looms In Ohio, Interest In Tesla GrowsTwitterLinkedInFacebookJanuary 23rd, 2019 by Guest Contributor
Originally published on EVANNEX
By Charles Morris
In November, GM announced plans to stop producing most of its sedans and close down five North American factories, including a plant in Lordstown, Ohio, that produces the doomed Chevrolet Cruze. Some have speculated that Tesla might be interested in buying some of the soon-to-be-shuttered plants, perhaps repeating the coup the company scored when it purchased its Fremont factory from Toyota for a song in 2010. Elon Musk and Ohio Governor John Kasich batted the possibility around on Twitter, but GM CEO Mary Barra recently threw cold water on the idea, saying that Tesla wouldn’t want to buy a unionized factory.
Tesla Model S (Image: EVANNEX)It remains to be seen whether a Tesla takeover of GM’s Lordstown Complex is a realistic possibility or not. However, it’s safe to assume that folks who live in the area of the plant, which employs some 4,500 people (nearly 1,000 more than live in the village of Lordstown) are deeply concerned about its future, and many are interested in learning more about Tesla.
“After GM builds its last Cruze in Lordstown, no one knows what will come next,” says news anchor Dave Sess of Youngstown TV station WKBN in in a recent segment. “The automaker does plan a shift into electric cars, though. I found a local Tesla driver and wondered what an all-electric car was like on the road, so I went for a ride with him to find out.”

New Castle resident Russ Carley talks about his Tesla (Youtube: WKBN27)
New Castle resident Russ Carley is a high-mileage driver — he put 100,000 miles on two Toyota Prii before ordering his Model S in July 2017. He says he had to wait 14 months for delivery, but so far he’s a happy customer — he loves “the smoothness, the modern technology and all the whizzes and bangs and bells,” and finds that “for all the miles I drive, [it is] really cost-effective.”
Regular readers of this column may smile at the gee-whiz tone of WKBN’s report, but keep in mind that it’s aimed at viewers who may be entirely unfamiliar with Tesla, and may not even be aware that an electric car is a viable option. “There’s plenty of mystique when you see a Tesla on the road,” says WKBN’s Sess. “It’s so quiet you only hear the tires on the road.”
Image: Chevy Bolt by Tina Casey
Carley bought his Tesla for its cutting-edge technology, and he loves it when people recognize the car. He believes electric cars are the wave of the future, and that building them could be a long-term answer for the workers of Lordstown.

About the AuthorGuest Contributor is many, many people. We publish a number of guest posts from experts in a large variety of fields. This is our contributor account for those special people. 😀

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Elon’s Latest Letter Sends Shock Waves Through Wall Street

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Published on January 20th, 2019 |

by Steve Hanley

Elon’s Latest Letter Sends Shock Waves Through Wall Street

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January 20th, 2019 by Steve Hanley

As Tesla was going through “production hell” with the Model 3 last year, Elon Musk tweeted that he had underestimated the value of human workers. The Model 3 assembly line was the most highly automated in the world, but many of the machines were not calibrated properly or broke down, leading to slowdowns. Tesla responded by hiring more workers, expanding its workforce by about 30%.

On January 18, the company announced it is laying off about 7% of its full-time workers and warned that profits in the fourth quarter would be lower than in the previous quarter. Q3 saw a modest profit for the company of just under 4%. For Q4, Elon says the company once again will be profitable but that profit will be lower than in Q3. And for Q1 2019, Tesla might see a “tiny” profit. The actual Q4 numbers won’t be released officially until the next shareholder and analyst conference call in early February. (In the meantime, if you’re interested, Vijay has published his estimates.)

Musk justified the decision to lay off about 3,000 workers by saying the company needs to find ways to reduce the cost of its cars. “Looking ahead at our mission of accelerating the advent of sustainable transport and energy, which is important for all life on Earth, we face an extremely difficult challenge: making our cars, batteries and solar products cost-competitive with fossil fuels.

“While we have made great progress, our products are still too expensive for most people. Tesla has only been producing cars for about a decade and we’re up against massive, entrenched competitors. The net effect is that Tesla must work much harder than other manufacturers to survive while building affordable, sustainable products.

“[T]he road ahead is very difficult. This is not new for us — we have always faced significant challenges — but it is the reality we face. There are many companies that can offer a better work-life balance, because they are larger and more mature or in industries that are not so voraciously competitive. Attempting to build affordable clean energy products at scale necessarily requires extreme effort and relentless creativity, but succeeding in our mission is essential to ensure that the future is good, so we must do everything we can to advance the cause.

“Higher volume and manufacturing design improvements are crucial for Tesla to achieve the economies of scale required to manufacture the standard range (220 mile), standard interior Model 3 at $35k and still be a viable company. There isn’t any other way.”

The news sent Tesla stock into free fall, shedding 13% during the trading day on Friday and knocking Tesla down a few notches on the list of most valuable automakers — from #4 to #7.

And, of course, it brought the usual assortment of “I told you years ago Tesla would never amount to anything” naysayers on Wall Street. One of them is Forbes contributor Jim Collins, who wrote that going backwards on quarterly profits is exactly the opposite of what investors want to hear.

“That margin decrement would indicate that the benefits of scale are not occurring at all at Tesla, and that is a virtual death blow to the bullish arguments for the stock. Auto companies are generally perceived to have some monstrously large mass of fixed costs that can be amortized over production, and thus more output should equal both higher dollar profits and higher profit margins.” (Collins ignored what anyone following Tesla very closely knew — Tesla sold a large number of very high-cost, high-margin versions of the Model 3 in the 3rd quarter, and then many of the more affordable Model 3 Mid Range in the 4th quarter.)

Bret Kenwell, writing for The Street, worried that the decline in share price would make it difficult for Tesla to pay off the $920 million in convertible bonds coming due on March 1. “In the third quarter, Tesla was cash-flow positive and profitable, and so long as that’s the case in the fourth quarter, Tesla should be able to make the payment in March, even if it is all cash. However, it will come at an unfortunate time for Tesla, as it tries to get its Shanghai factory open before the end of the year, continues to expand its Supercharger Network and has a number of new models in the pipeline.”

Tesla has been doing a high-wire act for the past 15 years. Many analysts and journalists were claiming Tesla’s imminent death 10 years ago. Its stock is one of the most volatile and always has been. Chances are, it will continue to be. The conversion price for those convertible bonds is $359.88. “[I]t’s always possible that Tesla stock will be able to rally above that conversion price in time to pay part of the debt with stock. After all, it’s more than a month away and we’ve seen crazier things than a 20% rally in Tesla’s share price in a short time period,” Kenwell writes.

What it all comes down to is, do you trust Elon Musk or not? Some very large investors — like Tencent, Baillie Gifford, Ron Baron, and Larry Ellison — have placed bets on Elon and Tesla. Perhaps jittery stockholders should pay more attention to what the company’s major investors are saying rather than the words of a few so-called analysts who get paid to stir the pot.

As Elon says, the road ahead will be difficult. The 3,000 people getting laid off can’t be very happy about being out of work. Despite the pressure and difficult working conditions, Tesla is still viewed as one of the best places to work in the industry. The bottom line is that Musk knows his overall plan relies on making electric cars that more people can afford. That’s good news for the electric car revolution going forward but the path will not always be smooth.

About the Author

Steve Hanley Steve writes about the interface between technology and sustainability from his home in Rhode Island and anywhere else the Singularity may lead him. His motto is, “Life is not measured by how many breaths we take but by the number of moments that take our breath away!” You can follow him on Google + and on Twitter.

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Tesla Raises Supercharger Prices Worldwide, Flirts With Chinese Battery Manufacturers

Tesla is busy searching out ways to improve profitability whether by laying off workers, ending its referral program, or doing business with battery companies other than Panasonic. That's good news for long term investors as the company reaches maturity.

Tesla Gigafactory 1 Timeline & Results — CleanTechnica Deep Dive

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Published on January 20th, 2019 |

by Chanan Bos

Tesla Gigafactory 1 Timeline & Results — CleanTechnica Deep Dive

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January 20th, 2019 by Chanan Bos

Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 in Nevada is a proof of concept. Originally, the factory was supposed to be completed in 2020, have a production capacity of 35 GWh of battery cells and 50 GWh of battery packs, and employ 6,500 people.

In 2017, these plans were altered publicly, as Elon Musk claimed that the company found a way to use space more efficiently and set new goals of 105 GWh of battery cells and 150 GWh of battery packs — triple the initial goals. That would also mean employing around 10,000 people when complete.

The only problem is that Tesla didn’t provide a new timetable, which has led many people to assume that the factory is still supposed to be finished in 2020. Though, given the much bigger production targets, it’s actually unclear if 2020 is the end of the roadmap or not.

In any case, by multiple criteria, the factory is only around 30% complete. Given the significant progress, recent updates from Tesla, and overall curiosity (and confusion) about this, we decided to dig in. We went back in time and collected all relevant news stories and reports since the first announcement of the Gigafactory. Have a look.

1* — Extrapolated projection if construction had continued. 2* — Extrapolated projection if Tesla continues construction at the pace it left off. GWh Output — 100% = 150GWh (if you use the investment scale you can substitute $15.0B for 150GWh). Qualified Employees — 100% = 10,000 Employees.

Quick Overview
What this graph shows is that the speed at which the structure was being built was exponential, until it wasn’t. Tesla stopped expanding the structure for almost 2 years. If the company resumes expanding the building right now and can pick up the speed where it left off, then the building will be completed sometime in 2020.

As for the GWh battery cell production capacity of the Gigafactory, that has apparently been increasing somewhat exponentially as well. We know that Tesla reached 20 GWh of production capacity around August, and it was on schedule to reach 35 GWh by the end of 2018 last we heard. We reached out to Tesla for confirmation on this matter but did not receive confirmation or denial.

The last bit of data on this graph cover the number of people (excluding construction workers and non-qualified employees) who are employed at the Gigafactory. The number is in percent out of 100% (10,000 jobs), so as to better compare with building completion and GWh output. What we see on the graph is that up until 2018, the number of employees hired is approximately on par with building completion.

Analysis
Employees
Our research has revealed a few very surprising tidbits of information. A while ago, it was announced that Tesla had 7,059 employees at the Gigafactory. However, our deep dive has revealed that in reality the original 6,500 employee goal (which was later extended to 10,000) only includes “qualified employees,” while the 7,059 figure includes all employees.

So, how many of the 10,000 qualified employees had actually been hired at that time? The answer is only 4,247.

It is very surprising that Nevada released the number of all employees since in the past it has only published the number of qualified employees. It’s like comparing apples to apples & oranges. Nonetheless, this is actually very useful information. Here’s an excerpt from Tesla’s original 98 page incentive agreement with the Nevada Governor’s Office of Economic Development from 2014:

One of the new things we have learned from this is that, once complete, the Gigafactory will very likely employ not 10,000 people but more than 13,000 employees. This is because the 6,500 employee figure (and by extension the 10,000 employee figure as well) only includes the qualified employees. If you also count the current number of non-qualified employees, you get around 13,000.

While there is insufficient data to confidently conclude how many non-qualified employees there will be at the Gigafactory once complete, if today’s figures represent an accurate ratio, then it could very well be that when complete, the Gigafactory will employ more than 15,000 or 16,000 people.

Building completion
The reason we have chosen in our calculations to disregard the year in which Tesla didn’t expand the building is because the number of construction workers at the site has only increased. This is why we believe Tesla might pick up building construction at the pace it left off at. Here is a graph showing the number of construction workers:

You might be wondering what that strange drop in July 2016 is all about. We have included this on purpose to shed some light on a few discrepancies in the data we have stumbled upon.

Until July 2016, the Nevada’s GOED (Governor’s Office of Economic Development) published quarterly reports on qualified employees and investments made into the Gigafactory. At first glance, it seemed like they were over-calculating the number of employees and at times misplaced up to $2 million of investments per quarter until it became clear that they were publishing unaudited data and that such adjustments are normal.

After Q2 2016, Grant Thornton, an auditing company, took over the reporting, and while they published a lot later and the numbers were lower, they were apparently more accurate. If you pay close attention to our first graph in 2016, there is also a slight decline in qualified employees that has to do with the same transition.

Annual GWh production capacity
While mathematically the extrapolated projection is accurate, in reality, the final 15–25% might end up looking a bit different. If the Model 3 ramp is any indication, it’s way harder to hit those final percentage points. The biggest difference is that in Fremont Tesla is running out of space and needs to find a way to cram it all in. At the Gigafactory, Tesla could simply expand the building a bit more and add additional production lines and not invest all that effort into speeding up existing lines to hit some arbitrary number.

Investments & employees of Tesla, Panasonic, and others

Not to clutter up the first graph, we have kept the division of employees and investments between Tesla, Panasonic, H&T, and Valeo separate.

For those unfamiliar with H&T, “Heitkamp & Thumann Group is a leading global partner for the supply of world class precision formed components in metal and plastic.” It has invested $99 million since Q2 2017. Valeo is an “Automotive supplier” that has thus far only invested $9 million once, in Q2 2017.

Tesla has invested a total of $2.754 billion and Panasonic has invested $1.591 billion. In total, $4.453 billion has been invested into the Gigafactory.

As per our first graph, the total investment is likely to be between $7.5 billion and $10 billion. The math says $7.9 if they finish before the end of 2020 (as per the original schedule) or $8.8 billion if they finish a whole year later.

In Conclusion
At this point, it’s unclear if Gigafactory 1 will be completed before the end of 2020. However, if everything goes well and follows the trend lines, it is possible. Our current theory is that all this time Tesla (together with Panasonic) has been developing better battery lines and better batteries. Once satisfied, they will simply have to copy & paste that new design, so that might make matters a bit simpler. In this case we will suddenly see a lot of rapid progress. The only question is when this turning point will be. The fact that Tesla has recently made a new parking lot indicates that this turning point could happen at any moment.

Some of the haters might again try to say that the Gigafactory timetable was planned using the patented “Elon time” metric and has resulted in delays. Despite any delays (if there will be any), production capacity today appears to be approximately the production capacity originally targeted for 2020 — quite an early arrival.

Tesla is building the biggest battery factory in the world, becoming the biggest battery manufacturer, and trying to “accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.” In perspective, this is critical to the future of humanity, and critical to averting catastrophic climate change. So let’s be thankful this project is rolling along so quickly.

Timeline of Events
For those who are interested, below is a satellite picture of the Gigafactory showing approximately when each section was completed. Underneath that is a timeline of various Gigafactory 1 related milestones, events, and announcements. Here is a link to Nevada’s GOED website that contains all the reports they have published over the years.

2014

February 26 — Gigafactory announced by Elon Musk

July — The factory breaks ground

2015

September 8 – Section C is done

October – Tesla moves the energy storage production line from Fremont to the Gigafactory

2016

February 19 – Section A and B done

February 24 – Section D done

April 26 – Battery cost is below $190/kWh

July – Construction of sections D’, E, E’, and F begins

July 29 – The grand opening (side note: Elon Musk retweeted one of our stories about Gigafactory 1 that week)

December 8 – There are now 850 employees and there will be 1,000 more in H1 2017

December 22 – Sections D’ and E’ are complete but the roof has not yet been painted

2017

January 4 – Tesla starts 2170 NMC battery cell production for Powerpack 2 and Powerwall 2

February 18 – Tesla hints at 35% battery cost reduction instead of 30%

February 27 — Nevada’s executive director of the Governor’s Office of Economic Development indicates Tesla plans to hire around 54% more workers for the Gigafactory project than was initially expected

March 23 – Section F completed, section D’ and E’ roof painted white

June ..

Tesla Q4 Financial Estimates — Tesla Will See Profits, Just Not As Much

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Published on January 19th, 2019 |

by Vijay Govindan

Tesla Q4 Financial Estimates — Tesla Will See Profits, Just Not As Much

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January 19th, 2019 by Vijay Govindan

Happy Holidays, Happy Kwanzaa, Happy Festivus, and Happy New Year!

I received quite a few comments that running Tesla’s finances through a lemonade stand confused readers. I realized two things. People without a financial background loved it. People who fully read Tesla’s SEC filings for a mid-morning snack hated it, or at best tolerated it. 😉

To make some amends, I am publishing two spreadsheets used to make my predictions for Tesla’s Q4. The first is my original and the second is after adjusting for Tesla’s recent delivery estimates for Q4 (see here and here for some high-level detail on Q4 deliveries). Sorry, lemonade folks. I promise I’ll bring lemonade back when Q4 results are released.

Update: Tesla’s news on 1/18/2019 shocked me and forced an update to my original article. I was predicting a record-breaking quarter. That turned out to not to be the case and it would be wrong to go with what I first wrote. I have kept my original charts and most of the wording to show my thought process. I have included additional sections below to account for the news.

I wrote this on my Twitter feed: “Heart-wrenching news to those impacted @Tesla. ;( My prayers are with you and your family. You will get something soon. Thank you for your dedication and contributions to advancing sustainable energy for all of us. God speed.”

Tesla’s Profit-Setting Q4
Tesla set records for production and deliveries in the 4th quarter. From Tesla’s delivery report:

“Q4 deliveries grew to 90,700 vehicles, which was 8% more than our prior all-time-high in Q3. This included 63,150 Model 3 (13% growth over Q3), 13,500 Model S, and 14,050 Model X vehicles.”

After difficulties suffering through production hell earlier in the year, this is an extraordinary feat. That said, Wall Street analysts and I had even greater expectations. According to FactSet, delivery numbers were 2,000 less than expected. Without detailed access to the FactSet database, we don’t know how FactSet computed the numbers. I am reaching out to FactSet in the hopes of finding out more. A miss of 2,000 deliveries amounts to a miss by 2.1%. It’s not a lot. In combination with Tesla reducing prices, this is blamed for Tesla’s stock having a deep fall early in January. “The Grinch is in town and Santa has left the building,” was the general feeling among Tesla shareholders (of which I’m one).

I will have to eat humble pie based on how wrong my estimates were. I was overly optimistic that the combination of the expiring tax credit and buoyant production would allow Tesla to set even larger records. It looks like Tesla did not expand production aggressively and focused on preserving gross margin. However, that bodes well for the financial results in February.

Here are some highlights:

Metric
Old Q4 Estimate
New Q4 Estimate

Revenue
7,672,682
7,289,697

Cost of Revenue
5,770,693
5,494,546

Operating Expenses
1,088,305
1,088,305

Net Profit / Loss
606,449
506,166

Diluted Earnings Per Share
3.40
2.84

Cash and Cash Equivalents
3,823,542
3,723,259

Cash Flow from Operating Activities
1,417,003
1,316,720

Cash Flow from Operating Activities Minus Cash Flow from Investing Activities
856,038
755,755

Gross Profit
24.1%
23.9%

Deliveries
96,721
90,700

The end result of my estimates is still $500 million in net profit. Operating cash flow is strong at $1.3 billion. Cash balance increases robustly to $3.7 billion. This cash balance does not include the $230 million in debt Tesla repaid in November. Adjusted earnings are estimated at $3.99, still much higher than Wall Street estimates or Estimize’s crowdsourced estimates.

Here are some charts for those visually inclined.

Tesla’s Layoffs
Elon’s email should be read in full by anyone interested in Tesla.

“In Q4, preliminary, unaudited results indicate that we again made a GAAP profit, but less than Q3. This quarter, as with Q3, shipment of higher priced Model 3 variants (this time to Europe and Asia) will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit.”

This news changes everything in the charts above. It also led to a -13.0% drop in the stock. How much “less” is less GAAP Profit? I decided to do a quick scenario analysis.

Q4 Net Profit / Loss – Possible values under different Gross Margin / Model 3 ASP scenarios

Model 3 ASP

Gross Margin
52,500
55,000
57,500

17.20%
203,062
228,550
254,039

19.70%
280,861
310,054
339,247

22.20%
358,660
391,558
424,455

24.70%
436,459
473,061
509,664

Q3’s Net Profit was $311,516. Cells in black underline are possible based on what Elon said. These numbers are based on $205 million in ZEV credits, which is probably overstated. The best case is Gross Margin stayed the same as last quarter and Model 3 ASP declined to 55,000. The worst case scenario is profit much less than Q3. Combined with an expected tiny profit in Q1, expectations were reset for many people. It could be profit is less due to the other areas outside of the Model 3 not performing well. I think it is more sales of the Mid-range Model 3 which helped lower ASP’s. Lower ZEV credits also would contribute to less profit. Most likely, it is a combination of items. We won’t know for a few weeks what caused the lower profit. It’s merely speculation at this point.

Tesla Pravduh
Tesla delivery and financial numbers are never complete without some Pravduh thrown in to get the naysayers energized.

CNBC: “Tesla shares tumble as much as 10% as company misses Wall Street vehicle delivery estimates, cuts prices”

The headline is accurate but misleading. How many people will put the proper emphasis on “as much” in the above headline? The 10% tumble is emphasized. That’s bad optics and a large round number. Actual closing results were -6.8%. This level of volatility is high but normal for Tesla over the last year. The headline makes it seem Tesla is cutting prices due to missing vehicle delivery estimates. That’s factually not true. From Tesla’s delivery estimate press release:

“Moving beyond the success of Q4, we are taking steps to partially absorb the reduction of the federal EV tax credit (which, as of January 1st, dropped from $7,500 to $3,750). Starting today, we are reducing the price of Model S, Model X, and Model 3 vehicles in the U.S. by $2,000.”

If we re-write the above, it looks like the following: Tesla shares drop -6.8% as the company just misses optimistic Wall Street vehicle delivery estimates, cuts prices to offset tax credit. If things were really bad, Tesla would have cut prices by $3,750 or more. The egregious part of this headline is that it was prominently featured on CNBC’s home page the whole day even as Tesla bounced higher from the lows of the day. It was subsequently moved from the home page after the markets closed. That’s real-time Pravduh for you. Sneaky, highly effective, and the evidence destroyed. And that’s just one headline. There were many others like that.

Conclusion
Although Tesla didn’t meet my overly optimistic estimates, they still had a profitable quarter. Even if gross margins are the same as last quarter, they will still earn a decent level of profit. Hats off to all the employees of Tesla for making it happen. Longer term, Tesla will continue to grow.

Cyclically, the US stock markets are in a weak time right now until March. Tesla will go along for the ride. Apple came out on Jan 2nd and said revenue for Q1 would be $5 billion to $8 billion less than what it thought two months ago! China is the culprit for not buying enough golden delicious Apple iPhones. For Apple’s honesty in reporting material news, the stock went down 7% after the market closed. Please keep in mind Tesla is reporting record deliveries and went down a similar amount. Investors are panicking after seeing the stock market closed lower at year-end for the first time in 9 years. All subpar news will be sold quickly and viciously as investors head to the warm caress of cold, hard cash and soft, 24 karat gold.

Note: I wrote the last paragraph before the news on Tesla came out. There is a rising risk of worldwide recession heading into January 2020, which I did not mention previously. 2019 is shaping up to be challenging on many fronts for Tesla. But there is room for optimism on Tesla’s product pipeline. Elon ended his email on a positive note.

“For those remaining, although there are many challenges ahead, I believe we have the most exciting product roadmap of any consumer product company in the world. Full self-driving, Model Y, Semi, Truck and Roadster on the vehicle side and Powerwall/pack and Solar Roof on the energy side are only the start.”

Regarding Q1 estimates, I have no comment. Q1 is seasonally weak for Tesla. Tesla will be facing market turbulence and a Chinese economy slowing down. This will occur even as Tesla starts Model 3 exports to China and Europe to fulfill their backlogs. It is very possible that Tesla has record Q1 production with severely delayed revenue. This can happen due to longer transit times to China and Europe. All of this makes an estimate useless at this time.

You can view the full initial estimates here or the updated spreadsheet with actual delivery results here.

The above references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.

I am currently long Tesla shares and short Tesla stock options as a short-term hedge. I do not plan to make any investment or divestment related to Tesla in the next 48 hours from the publish date of this article. I do use the proceeds from my hedge to buy more Tesla shares.

About the Author

Vijay Govindan Vijay ..

Breaking: Tesla Design Studio Changed To Allow Referral Codes In 18 European Countries!

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Published on January 18th, 2019 |

by Paul Fosse

Breaking: Tesla Design Studio Changed To Allow Referral Codes In 18 European Countries!

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January 18th, 2019 by Paul Fosse

Captured from Tesla

Today I noticed the design studio was changed to have a flag in the right-hand corner of the first page (but for Model 3 only). When you click that flag, you get a list of 21 country/language combinations shown below.

Now, when I click on one of those countries, it brings up a screen asking if you have a reservation or not, and telling you that you can get free Supercharging with a referral code.

Captured from Tesla

Then it shows the options available in that country.

Capture from Tesla

As we have reported before, only the long-range battery and all-wheel drive are available in European countries — as Tesla tries to maximize its margins. What is new is that it lets you order from a referral link to get 6 months of free Supercharging (maybe 9 months, since no European customers have had the chance to test drive cars). This may be more valuable in Europe than the United States, since electricity costs are high in some countries. But you better hurry, because Elon Musk has announced that the referral program is ending for good this time on February 1st.

My referral link is https://ts.la/paul92237, but if some other owner has helped you more than me, please use their link instead. They may get a prize for it. I have been fortunate to receive 75 referrals from my readers and hope to receive a few more so that I can sell one Roadster to be able pay the taxes due on the two cars. Taxes are expected to be close to $125,000 per car.

If you have already configured your Model 3, you can still add the code by sending an email to buildmy3EMEA@tesla.com with the word “Referral” in the subject line.

In the body of your email, include your name and contact information, the reservation number (starts with RN), and the referral code you’d like to use.

Conclusion
I find it odd that Tesla would make it easier to use referral codes right before ending the program for good. I think this just happened as part of a redesign of the design studio. The developers that were updating the design studio perhaps didn’t know that the referral codes were ending.

I also think it is odd that it doesn’t include any countries in Asia. I have more news on Asia coming out in an upcoming article.

So, if you were waiting for a good reason to configure a Model 3 in Europe, this is the time! Not only can you get free Supercharging, but you now have it as part of the order in the beginning and you don’t have to wait for your order to be manually updated.

About the Author

Paul Fosse I've been a software engineer for over 30 years, first working on EDI software and more recently developing data warehouse systems in the telecommunications and healthcare industry. Along the way, I've also had the chance to help start a software consulting firm and do portfolio management for several investment trusts. In 2010, I took an interest in electric cars because gas was getting expensive. In 2015, I started reading CleanTechnica and took an interest in solar, mainly because it was a threat to my oil and gas investments in my investment trusts. Tesla investor. Tesla referral code: https://ts.la/paul92237

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Tesla Model X Converted Into An Ambulance — Real-World Pilot Project By Falck

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Published on January 15th, 2019 |

by Jesper Berggreen

Tesla Model X Converted Into An Ambulance — Real-World Pilot Project By Falck

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January 15th, 2019 by Jesper Berggreen

Today, in a press release in my home country of Denmark, the Denmark-based first responder and ambulance operator Falck announced that it has developed an ambulance on the platform of the Tesla Model X.

Falck operates in over 20 countries worldwide, and provides ambulance services in close cooperation with the national authorities. With over 2500 ambulances, Falck is today the world’s largest international ambulance operator. So, why not go ahead and try to implement the electric vehicle era in the fleet?

Indeed, and why not do it with a roomy, fast, and long-range Tesla Model X? (Sorry Nissan, too late with the e-NV200, even though it is roomy.)

Image credit: Falck.dk

First responder & first mover
In total, Falck has more than 5000 vehicles around the world, but very few are powered by electricity. Rescue tasks require a lot of energy, which is inconsistent with an electric car’s limited battery capacity. However, that has not been the case with Tesla vehicles for some years now, and more manufacturers are getting in the game at around 100 kWh of capacity and beyond. “In Falck we are concerned with using less fuel. It is beneficial both for the environment and the economy, and since no one else in the world has yet made an electric ambulance, we ourselves decided to develop one,” says Jakob Riis, CEO of Falck.

Separate electricity & heating
One challenge has been the fact that an ambulance uses power for much more than just driving, which can deplete the car’s battery too fast. It was crucial to solve this so that the patient is safe during transportation as well as actually reaching the hospital. Running out of juice in any EV is no joke, and in an ambulance it would spell disaster. Jakob Riis elaborates on the system:

“We use separate electric systems in the car, which means that all auxiliary equipment is not powered by the car’s own battery, so things like emergency lights, sirens, radio, medical equipment, and cooling/heating equipment is run in a separate system which is charged prior to departure, and backed up by a fuel cell that constantly charges the system on the road.”

The fuel cell is powered by methanol, and this fuel is also used directly for heating:

“So even on a frozen winter day on the highway, where the rescue personnel often wait at length for the rescue operation of the patient being moved into the ambulance, we can guarantee that a warm car is ready for the patient. This is a very important element in a future of electric powered ambulances.”

Real-world testing
Other than starting with patient transport around Copenhagen in electric vehicles, this particular test car will be used in the ambulance service in the southern region of Denmark. “I also expect to see more in the ambulance offering, and we will be better prepared than anyone else. We have both the desire and the duty to develop the ambulance segment, and I am pleased that we already have the first electric car in operation,” says Jakob Riis. “It is being tested under real-life response with rapid acceleration and hard braking, and this has never been done before.”

Falck is an international leader in ambulance services and healthcare. For more than 100 years, Falck has collaborated with local and national authorities to prevent accidents, illness, and emergencies; to rescue and help the injured and distressed quickly and competently; and to rehabilitate the sick and injured. Going electric will surely make these services faster, cleaner, and more reliable.

About the Author

Jesper Berggreen Jesper had his perspective on the world expanded vastly after having attended primary school in rural Africa in the early 1980s. And while educated a computer programmer and laboratory technician, working with computers and lab-robots at the institute of forensic medicine in Aarhus, Denmark, he never forgets what life is like having nothing. Thus it became obvious for him that technological advancement is necessary for the prosperity of all humankind, sharing this one vessel we call planet earth. However, technology has to be smart, clean, sustainable, widely accessible, and democratic in order to change the world for the better. Writing about clean energy, electric transportation, energy poverty, and related issues, he gets the message through to anyone who wants to know better. Jesper is founder of Lifelike.dk.

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Innovative Tesla Model 3 Seat Lock Aims To Reduce Break-Ins

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Published on January 15th, 2019 |

by Kyle Field

Innovative Tesla Model 3 Seat Lock Aims To Reduce Break-Ins

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January 15th, 2019 by Kyle Field

After becoming frustrated with recent break-ins to the rear corner window in Tesla Model 3s, a few owners banded together to solve the problem once and for all by creating a new device that prevents the rear seats from being unlatched.

The recent break-ins to Model 3s have focused on a vulnerability in the vehicle’s security where the rear corner window is not tied into the vehicle’s security system. That means that it can be broken with impunity and without setting off the vehicle alarm. Thefts start with the rear window breaking after which the rear seats are folded down to allow them to visually search the trunk to see if it contains anything of value. This can all be done without setting off the vehicle alarm.

To combat this problem, YouTuber Tesla Raj teamed up with Tesla DIY to develop the Drop-Lock, a device that locks out the handle on the rear seat folding mechanisms to prevent would-be thieves from even being able to fold down the rear seats. Their hope is that Drop-Lock, combined with a sticker on the vulnerable rear corner windows informing would-be thieves of the presence of the lock-out device, are aimed at eliminating not just the thefts, but also the breaking of the rear corner window in the first place.

It is an ambitious project, but an understandable attempt to solve a problem that has plagued many Tesla Model 3 owners living in regions that are seeing a higher number of vehicle break-ins. It’s not clear if this is a security gap that could be solved with a software update or if solving it requires an actual hardware upgrade, like the Enhanced Anti-Theft upgrade that Tesla sells for the Model S and Model X. That upgrade comes with a new hardware module that bolts into the headliner of the vehicle and brings extra sensors and extra security to the vehicle, but sets owners back a steep $350 for the additional protection.

For those interested in learning more about the device or in purchasing one, scroll down to the YouTube video that describes a bit more about the Drop-Lock or head straight on over to the product website. At $24.99, the Drop-Lock isn’t cheap, but if it prevents even one broken window, it has already paid for itself in parts alone, not to mention the hassle and time spent getting the window fixed.

If this article has helped you make a decision to purchase a Tesla vehicle, you can use our referral code to get 6 months of free Supercharging. If you are looking to purchase a Tesla Energy solar or solar + Powerwall system, you can also use our referral code to get an extended 5-year warranty.

About the Author

Kyle Field I'm a tech geek passionately in search of actionable ways to reduce the negative impact my life has on the planet, save money and reduce stress. Live intentionally, make conscious decisions, love more, act responsibly, play. The more you know, the less you need. TSLA investor. Tesla referral code: http://ts.la/kyle623

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Tesla China Adds Extra Security To Prevent Parking In EV Charging Spaces

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Published on January 15th, 2019 |

by Kyle Field

Tesla China Adds Extra Security To Prevent Parking In EV Charging Spaces

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January 15th, 2019 by Kyle Field

A few new Tesla Supercharging spaces in China have some added security thanks to a new parking protection system that was recently added. Twitterer JayinShanghai posted photos of the new devices, which come as a welcome solution to widespread reports of gas and diesel vehicles intentionally parking in Tesla Supercharging stations.

The blue bars are commonly used across China to save parking spaces for the rightful owner and prevent unauthorized access. They are typically used with a manual lock that requires owners to come out to unlock the blue bar to allow parking. The new devices in the Tesla charging stalls make use of an electronic lock that is tied into the popular WeChat app.

WeChat is the proverbial Swiss army knife app in China and is used for everything under the sun there, from actually chatting with others to paying for parking. The new system that has been installed at the Tesla Supercharger stalls in the Rainbow Plaza Hall of the Moon takes less than a minute to use, unlocking the blue stall lock and enabling Tesla owners to charge.

As more and more people buy plug-in vehicles and charging stations become more prevalent in cities around the world, we expect to see more innovative solutions for protecting the right to use the stations for charging and not just parking. This solution simply merges an existing parking space locking solution with Superchargers, but still improves the overall functionality of the space. With most charging spaces having electricity and an internet connection, there is plenty of room for improvement and further innovation to solve the problem.

Until then, we have blue bars in China. To make this work in the United States, the bars would need to be double or triple the height to ensure that the oversized urban monster trucks wouldn’t just see it as a challenge and park in the space just to mock the diminutive device. Thankfully, that’s not an issue in China, and for now, access to Tesla’s Superchargers has been improved slightly.

Image credit: JayinShanghai Twitter

Source: Twitter via X Auto World via Reddit

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