It could be exciting with the state elections in Lower Saxony, at least a look at the polls gives that impression. The two top candidates from the SPD and CDU, Stephan Weil and Bernd Althusmann, received around 30 percent approval. The Greens are well below 20 percent in the polls, the AFD around 10 percent, the FDP at 5 percent. In mathematical terms, many things are conceivable, from the continuation of the current alliance of convenience between the SPD and CDU to a Jamaica coalition. Politically, these are not options. In fact, there is little reason to doubt that the next prime minister will be Stephan Weil, who is hoping for a re-launch of a red-green coalition he led in 2013. According to election researchers, if he could be elected Prime Minister directly, the Social Democrat would get every second vote.
This is not least due to the weak competition. CDU top candidate Bernd Althusmann has been Minister for Economic Affairs, Labour, Transport and Digitization at important control points in the state since 2017. But what he achieved there has at least not entered the public consciousness. Stephan Weil, on the other hand, can benefit from the office bonus. He is perceived as the father of the country. Down to earth and approachable, a fan of Hannover 96 who likes to listen to Bruce Springsteen and discovered baking bread as a relaxation method during the pandemic. As with Althusmann, it is also true for Weil that the question of his political successes is not so easy to answer. But the SPD ensures that there is not much demand. “The country is in good hands” – this striking election promise by the SPD caught on in these volatile times. War, energy crisis and inflation worry people. Other topics that used to cause excitement fade in comparison.