The shortage of workers in Germany is likely to worsen dramatically in the next ten years. During this period, four million more people will retire than will be replaced by young workers, according to a new report by the Scientific Advisory Board of the Federal Ministry of Economics. “In Germany, aging will have inflationary tendencies,” said Axel Börsch-Supan, one of the authors, on Tuesday in Berlin. However, it is possible to close the workforce gap and even overcompensate for it. The “untapped workforce potential” in Germany amounts to 6.7 million people. In order to “raise” this, the Advisory Board, an independent body, recommends various measures so that older people work longer and women work more. However, there are only a few points that can gain a majority among politicians, such as the call for more daycare places. Most of the proposals are a red flag for politicians who want to win as many votes as possible in elections. But they are urgently needed, said Börsch-Supan. “The place is on fire.” In combination with the low productivity growth, the labor shortage threatens “the entire structure of the German economy,” says the report. “Overall, an economy that produces less becomes poorer. This burden must be borne by those who do not benefit from the higher wages and prices.” The advisory board of the Ministry of Economic Affairs therefore proposes to abolish the so-called pension at 63, the earlier retirement for those who have been insured for a long time, or to limit it to people who do not for health reasons be able to work longer. Börsch-Supan criticized that this option is currently being used by people who are “healthier than average”. He cited Sweden as a model for pension policy. There is no pension at 63 there, and the deductions for early retirement are significantly higher. If nothing else is left but a major reform, he considers the fact that employment contracts in Germany often end at the age of 65 or 67 to be a case of “age discrimination”, which should be abolished. The postponement of the regular retirement age from 67 to a later date will be necessary from 2030, assuming increasing life expectancy. He considers the pension package II planned by the traffic light coalition shortly before it broke up to be wrong. It is by no means the case that the sustainability factor that the reform is intended to eliminate will lead to a reduction in pensions. It only curbs pension increases. The SPD recently warned of impending pension cuts. According to the advisory board, politicians should also work to ensure that women work more, for example through “real splitting” instead of spouse splitting. The current model, which gives couples with a large income difference better tax treatment, creates “a strong negative work incentive effect for the lower-earning person,” says the report. The free co-insurance of non-working spouses in statutory health insurance also reduces the incentive to work. According to the advisory board, a budget principle in health insurance would be better: “The couple’s total contribution would then be based on the sum of both employment income up to twice the contribution assessment limit, and the distribution between the two partners would no longer play a role.”More on the topicBörsch-Supan knows, that all of this will not be well received in Berlin. But politicians will have no choice other than a major reform if the crisis continues to worsen. He also hopes for the voters’ sense of reality. The introduction of the pension at 63 did not catapult the SPD in favor of voters.
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