“Is Germany threatened with car disaster?” asked manager magazine on its front page at the end of 2014. Even back then it was about electromobility, about digitalization, about Tesla. The catastrophe remained a threatening scenario for a long time. Now, it seems, things are getting real. VW wants to cut 35,000 jobs, Mercedes is likely to cut more than 20,000, and suppliers are also cutting tens of thousands of jobs. How bad will it get for the industry? Who will manage to get through the crisis relatively unscathed? 2025 will be a pivotal year for the German auto industry.
There is also a lot at stake in other areas of mobility. Our editorial experts have picked up on some aspects that you should keep an eye on in 2025. But read for yourself…
Who is riding the second wave?
Volkswagen or Mercedes, ZF Friedrichshafen or Continental: Germany’s car giants are cutting tens of thousands of jobs. This has a lot to do with China: In the largest and most dynamic car market in the world, local manufacturers with their electric cars have left the eternal dominators from abroad, with the exception of Tesla. A disaster for the German auto industry. The fat checks from the Far East, which have long financed prosperity at home, have become meager.
It is questionable whether the Germans can successfully counteract this in China. However, it is also questionable how many Chinese attackers can keep up the pressure. Hardly anyone is making any money so far, there is a predatory battle raging. Even attempts by well-known companies fail; Jiyue, a joint project between Geely and Baidu, recently collapsed.
Some brands will continue to seek salvation in expansion in 2025. BYD, Nio and others presented themselves in Europe Great Wall Engine
in a first wave in the past two years it has often been amateurish and largely unsuccessful
. Punitive tariffs in the EU are making the situation even more difficult. Nevertheless, there are still high yields in Europe. However, the attackers should not allow themselves any further flops. The “market launch 2.0”, which BYD or Nio is now with more external help
put on, should sit.
By Christoph Seyerlein
The triumph of AI robotaxis
Enlarge image
Who follows Waymo? AI robotaxis are on the rise
Photo: Mario Tama / Getty Images
After years of pumping billions of dollars into the development of robotaxis, 2024 was the year in which autonomous driving became something that many people could experience for the first time
– although so far (outside China) only in San Francisco and a few other US cities. Robotaxis from Alphabet company Waymo have now captured a significant share of the taxi market in San Francisco. At the end of 2024, Waymo handled over 150,000 trips per week there, as well as in Phoenix and Los Angeles – which roughly corresponds to all taxi trips in Munich in the same period. The offer will also be expanded to Austin and Atlanta in 2025. Parallel to the start in Miami Prepared to become the first international city with Tokyo.
It is quite possible that robotaxis will remain a one-company show in 2025. General Motors subsidiary Cruise is the last traditional car manufacturer said goodbye to building a Waymo rival. When suppliers like Mobileye will be able to supply companies like VW or Nio with the technology is just as unclear as when Tesla will be able to truly drive autonomously for the first time.
The only thing that is clear is that if other companies really attack the field of autonomous driving at some point, they will follow the Waymo model: AI robotaxis in limited areas that will be gradually expanded.
By Jonas Rest
Hope for the state
Enlarge image
Difficult times: German aviation is lagging behind internationally
Photo: Rainer Droese / localpic / IMAGO
A year of hope and fear awaits German aviation. Is the trend continuing that Germany is falling behind in air traffic compared to its European neighbors? Or will the next federal government bring about a change? While the industry in other European countries has now overcome the pandemic and – measured by flight movements – has reached the level of 2019, German aviation is currently languishing at 84 percent of the pre-Corona level.
According to lobbyists, this is not only due to the strangling fees: air traffic tax, aviation security fees and air traffic control costs. They have almost doubled in this country since 2019, a significantly steeper increase than across the border. After all: the Union and the FDP have included vague declarations of intent for aviation in their election programs, and the SPD is also beginning to rethink things.
However, it is questionable whether, given the budgetary difficulties, it will ultimately be enough to take the big step: abolishing the aviation tax – as the inventors of flight shame, the Swedes, are currently doing.
By Michael Machatschke
Watch out for the adventurer!
Enlarge image
Multi-brand expert: Renault boss Luca de Meo also worked for Fiat and the Volkswagen Group
Photo: Benoit Tessier / REUTERS
Renault boss Luca de Meo (57) has already implemented some courageous projects. During his Fiat days, the Italian resurrected the small Fiat 500. As CEO of the Volkswagen subsidiary Seat, he launched the sporty Cupra sub-brand – a success story. He also reorganized Renault, dividing the group into the Ampere electrical unit and the Horse combustion engine bathroom bank; a “daring demolition adventure”
, we said two years ago.
The result: 8 percent operating return on sales in the first half of 2024, almost four times as much as VW. The car scene is astonishing. This is the man to watch out for in 2025. As early as 2024, Volkswagen boss Oliver Blume (56) sought help from him, would have liked to cooperate with his former colleague on an electric mini. Works council boss Daniela Cavallo (49) was against it.
Now there is an absolute top position to be filled: Stellantis boss Carlos Tavares (66) had to resign. Major shareholder Exor knows Luca de Meo from his Fiat days. Chrysler and Peugeot, Jeep, Opel and even a joint venture with LeapMotor in China would be a new challenge. Time for the next adventure, Mr. de Meo?
By Michael Friday
A little dolce vita
Enlarge image
Car anachronist: Things continue to go well for Ferrari boss Benedetto Vigna
Photo: Flavio Lo Scalzo / REUTERS
In 2024, the mood curve in the auto industry was similar to the temperature trend in Germany: the later the year, the lower the confidence in the industry fell. Especially in the autumn and winter months, one piece of bad news followed the next. Ford announced that it would cut 4,000 jobs in Europe, Bosch wants to save 5,500 jobs in the areas of software, electronics and steering systems alone, and VW plans to cut more than 35,000 jobs by 2030. The list could be extended.
But there is a countertrend. Car brands that are still on the sunny side – and that look to 2025 with confidence. However, their success reports hardly penetrate due to the bad news.
The dolce vita of the automotive industry – how could it be otherwise – takes place in Italy. At the luxury manufacturers Ferrari and Lamborghini. Ferrari, which has long been spoiled for success, is continuing its course under the IT specialist Benedetto Vigna (55). He expects revenue of 6.55 billion euros for 2024 – and an adjusted profit of at least 2.5 billion euros. This results in a return on sales of more than 27 percent. And Ferrari is not alone in Italy: its eternal competitor Lamborghini from Sant’ Agata Bolognese also achieved a return on sales of almost 28 percent in the third quarter.
So they still exist, the car manufacturers, whose business is booming. May the sound of Ferrari and Lamborghini be contagious!
By Margaret Hucko
Tour de Chance
Enlarge image
From boom to crisis: The bicycle industry has to reorganize itself
Photo: MiS / IMAGO
“The catastrophe did not happen
“, the German bicycle lobby almost defiantly assessed the year 2023. Sales and production declines of 10 to 20 percent initially continued in 2024: the “year of hope” mutated into a “year of transition” and ultimately into a year with factory closures and numerous bankruptcies, including in Germany.
The tour of suffering is not over yet. It’s good that the market continues to clear up after the Corona boom. Too many pedal riders had simply continued the hype and flooded the market with interchangeable (e-)bikes, some of which were of poor quality. But anyone who has reduced their inventory, optimized processes, maintained the brand, improved service and continued to work on quality will have the best chances in the future.
The bicycle is a piece of European identity, a fantastic product, valuable for people, mobility and the environment. We mustn’t leave it to greedy, low-cost residents and poor transport policy. Anyone who understands this will gain a lot.
By Lutz Reiche
Bring on the Amazon tax on parcel deliveries!
Enlarge image
Scream in horror: more and more delivery traffic is becoming a challenge for the transport transition
Photo: Ralph Peters / IMAGO
Barcelona is considered a model city for the transport transition. What is less discussed is how holistically the city wants to prevent traffic collapse. The local parliament decided to introduce an Amazon tax in 2023. It’s about a levy on parcels so that delivery traffic is kept under control. The introduction of such a tax would also be a blessing in Germany. Freight transport is growing exorbitantly and, according to the Federal Environment Agency, increased by around 75 percent between 1991 and 2022; growth in passenger transport was significantly lower at 22 percent.
Trucks and delivery vehicles already cause around a third of the transport sector’s greenhouse gas emissions. So bring on the tax on the ten pairs of sneakers that some people order from Limango or Zalando. And faster than the Association of Family Businesses can shout “bureaucracy alarm!”, the instrument is outlined here: VAT for shipping services will no longer be 19, but 22 percent. Alternatively, a fixed tax amount per package could also be discussed.
But be careful: targeted promotion of the city center initially went wrong, at least in Barcelona. Last summer, a court there overturned the tax because it was classified as illegal aid.
By Claas Tatje
Rely on e-cars!
Enlarge image
Charging instead of gas pumps: There is no way around electromobility
Photo: Julian Stratenschulte / dpa
Is e-mobility at its end? The sales figures of German manufacturers are far behind expectations. Anyone who has relied entirely on battery power, like VW and Mercedes, is currently in crisis. That’s why it’s time to backtrack – among companies and, to some extent, in politics.
That looks like common sense, but unfortunately it isn’t. It’s a panic reaction. And it doesn’t solve either problem. Firstly, the climate crisis: No matter how good we think 1000 kilometers of range or mega car factories in Wolfsburg are, we have to stop burning things pretty quickly. We have to.
And above all, rowing back does not help against the sales crisis. Europe’s automakers are struggling with two shrinking markets: at home and in China. The Chinese have hijacked their home market by switching to e-mobility. That was brutal industrial policy, but it can no longer be changed with combustion engines. Europe’s tradition-conscious car buyers, on the other hand, tend towards petrol pumps and reciprocating pistons. But that’s not an economic argument: apart from a few sports cars, people buy as many cars as they need, regardless of the drivetrain.
Manufacturers have to learn not only to develop electric models, but also to finally actively sell them with everything that has been part of it for decades: pricing, marketing, model maintenance. And politicians must support them by ensuring a high level of planning security and keeping the playing field level for everyone. That doesn’t make the market bigger or smaller. It’s simply the near future in at least two of the world’s three major auto markets.
By Henning Hinze