Leading economic research institutes predict mini growth of 0.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for Germany this year. They have already taken into account the effects of the tariffs of US President Donald Trump on steel, aluminum and cars. At first it was said that these had not yet been taken into account in the forecast. The recently announced other US tariffs from the beginning of April and corresponding countermeasures from the EU are not yet included in the so-called joint diagnosis published in Berlin. According to the experts, they are likely to continue to push growth. In the coming year, the institutes expect stronger growth of 1.3 percent again – they had already predicted this in autumn. In 2024, GDP had dropped by 0.2 percent. “The geopolitical tensions and the protectionist trade policy of the United States tightened the already tense economic situation in Germany,” said Torsten Schmidt, economic leader of the RWI-Leibniz Institute for Economic Research. “There have been no such high customs sets in the United States since the Great Depression of the 1930s,” the experts write – and the effects of import taxes were difficult to quantify. This brakes world trade: production becomes expensive, plus the unpredictability. Investors are therefore likely to postpone decisions. At their previous forecast in autumn, the institutes still expected 0.8 percent growth. China competes, some of the energy -intensive industry seems to be broken away permanently, the experts write. Accordingly, the employment population shrinks and the bureaucracy is pushing. Energy prices would have to fall, greenhouse gas savings would have to be achieved primarily via a CO₂ price. A “thoroughly derogated bureaucratization” is also necessary. Coalition from the Union and the SPD, which became noticeable in 2026, has also been financially due to the Greens. The debt brake has been relaxed for defense expenditure, and 500 billion from a special fund is particularly available for investments in the infrastructure. The economists assume that politics will endeavor to save less. According to the forecast, the current year should hardly flow any additional means. For 2026, on the other hand, the institutes expect additional expenditure of almost 24 billion euros and a 0.5 percentage point higher GLACK growth, which they have already calculated in their growth expectations, and even if people have more money in their pockets, private consumption increased little last year with 0.3 percent. A lot of money flowed into savings, the savings rate was 11.4 percent in 2024 – so much of the available income did not spend private households back, but put it back. Inflation and unemployment rate remain at a similar level for a long time in the past year to 2.2 percent. The institutes expect that the level of inflation will stay this way in the current year and will easily fall to 2.1 percent in the coming year. According to the unemployment rate, 6.0 percent will increase in 6.3 percent in the current year and will fall back to 6.2 percent in the coming year. Workplaces were lost, especially in the processing of businesses, construction and company service providers. In the public service, in the upbringing and in the health sector, new jobs arise. The “Community diagnosis” is created on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Economics by the German Institute for Economic Research, the IFO Institute, the Kiel Institute for World Economy, the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Hall and the RWI-Leibniz Institute for Economic Research. It flows into the government forecast, on the basis of which the tax revenue is estimated.
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