Good for Russia, bad for Ukraine, tolerable for the east of the EU. For example, on this denominator, the Eastern European experts from the Vienna Institute for International Economic Comparative (WIIW) bring the economic consequences of US President Donald Trump’s customs and Ukraine policy in their new growth forecast. While the prospects for Ukraine plagued by the war were “increasingly uncertain”, the perspectives of the attacker Russia had “significantly brightened up” by approaching the USA. So werde sich das Wachstum der russischen Wirtschaft nach der Überhitzung der Vorjahre 2025 auf 2,0 Prozent halbieren und im kommenden Jahr wieder auf 2,5 Prozent steigen. The prospect of a partially or complete cancellation of the US sanctions in the coming years will be “clear brightening of the economic perspectives” in Russia. Other countries such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan could follow. South Korea’s electronics group LG had raised production in its Moscow plant again. In Germany, albeit behavior, the resumption of gas deliveries from Russia is discussed. The Russian economy recently benefited from the high salaries of the soldiers and compensations of the families. The effect would weaken at the end of the war, but it could be compensated for by resuming economic relationships with the West.The Ukraine as an economic colony of the United States? Different the situation in Ukraine, whose economic power is far from level from level after the 30 percent burglary 2022. It has proven to be resistant. However, whether the growth of three percent in gross domestic product will be achieved this year also depends on the course of the war. Last year, the economy has cooled down strikingly, from 6.5 percent in the first quarter to only two percent in the last. Keywords here are: flight and displacement, destruction of the infrastructure, shortage of labor and rising prices that the central bank tries to tame with a gravity interest that has now been raised to 5.5 percent. But that’s not all. “Trump’s attempts to force Ukraine into a de facto capital and transform the country into an economic colony of the United States is the greatest danger to the country’s economic development,” says Olga Pindyuk, Ukraine expert at the institute. She means the raw material agreement requested by Trump. Accordingly, the proceeds from the extraction of Ukrainian soil treasures (oil, gas, “critical” minerals, rare earth) would flow into a fund controlled by the USA from which the reconstruction of the war-destroyed country should also be financed. Safety guarantees ”will continue to have a negative impact on the economic prospects – in Ukraine, but also all of Eastern Europe. Against the background, it will be “crucial whether the EU succeeds in strengthening its military and financial aid for Ukraine and replacing the USA as the most important supporter of the country,” says Pindyuk. Not so badly affected by Trump’s customs policy The EU is affected by Trump’s customs and defense policy. However, in contrast to the euro zone, the growth in most economies in Eastern Central and Southeast Europe remains robust in 2025, says Wiiw Vice Director Richard Grieveson. The institute also reduced expectations for GDP growth by 0.3 points to 2.5 percent. Nevertheless, the EU members in Eastern Central and Southeast Europe are likely to grow around three times as much this year as the euro zone and also twice as strong in 2026 as this. The direct trade currents of the entire region with the United States are not large, and “collateral damage due to the close integration with the strongly export -dependent German industry should remain manageable,” says Grieveson. In addition, the negative effects of Trump’s tariffs should be “largely compensated for by the fiscal political U-U-U-U-U-U-U-Uro -uro package for defense, infrastructure and climate protection”. The industrial, Hungary or Romania struggling with Germany, which is strongly intertwined with Germany in the Czech Republic, industrialization in the Federal Republic. As in previous cases of negative external shocks, countries with larger inland markets would better capture the consequences “and probably prove to be resistant again”. The leader in growth among the eastern EU members will again be Poland, for which the Wiiw expects a GDP increase of 3.5 percent each next year. In 2025, this even strikes the traditionally strong -growing countries on the Western Balkans, which should only come to an average increase of three percent.
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