For German exporters, the year 2025, which was characterized by higher US tariffs and increasing competition from China, ended on a positive note. Their exports grew by 4.0 percent in December compared to the previous month to 133.3 billion euros, as the Federal Statistical Office announced on Friday. This is the largest increase since October 2021. This comes as a surprise: economists surveyed by the Reuters news agency had only expected an increase of 1.0 percent. In November there was the sharpest decline in around a year and a half at 2.5 percent. In 2025, overall, goods exports increased by 0.9 percent to around 1,563 billion euros. Imports rose by 4.3 percent to 1,362.5 billion euros. The foreign trade balance ended with an export surplus of a good 200 billion euros. Last year, China replaced the USA as the most important trading partner with a foreign trade turnover (exports + imports) of 251.8 billion euros, which amounted to 240.5 billion euros. Most exports again went to the USA in December. German goods worth 11.8 billion euros were delivered there. That was 8.9 percent more than in November, although the high tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump are weighing on demand for goods “Made in Germany”. German business in China also grew: exports to the People’s Republic increased by 10.7 percent to 7.2 billion euros. Exports to the EU countries rose by 3.1 percent to 75.3 billion euros. “There are no clear signals of an upward trend.” The mood in the German export industry brightened at the beginning of the year. The barometer for export expectations rose to minus 1.2 points in January, from minus 3.0 points in December, as the Munich Ifo Institute announced in its survey of managers. “Even if companies are less skeptical about their foreign business, uncertainty remains high,” said the head of the Ifo surveys, Klaus Wohlrabe. “There are no clear signals of an upward trend for the first quarter of 2026.” This finding is consistent with the fact that German companies noticeably reduced their production in December despite an improved order situation. Industry, construction and energy suppliers together produced 1.9 percent less than in the previous month, as the Federal Statistical Office announced on Friday. Economists surveyed by the Reuters news agency had only expected a decline of 0.3 percent, after a revised increase of 0.2 (preliminary value: 0.8) percent in November. With the available production figures, the industrial economy had deteriorated somewhat again at the end of the year, the Ministry of Economic Affairs stated. However, given the noticeable increase in production in the previous months, the decline in December should be seen as more of a pause. More on the topic “The recent strong increase in incoming orders, which was driven primarily by domestic sources, points to a continued recovery in industrial production in the coming months,” the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy further announced. According to chief economist Alexander Krüger from Hauck Aufhäuser Lamp Privatbank, well-filled order books mean that there will only be a short respite. If the orders are processed quickly, invigorating impulses should prevail. In 2025 as a whole, production in this country shrank by 1.1 percent. Industry alone produced 3.0 percent less in December than in the previous month. It had previously landed more new orders for four months in a row, recently also benefiting from large orders for upgrades. In December, production in the automotive industry fell by 8.9 percent and in mechanical engineering by 6.8 percent. Energy production fell by 1.8 percent in December. The construction industry increased its production by 3.0 percent.
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