D onald Trump threatens with additional duties on cars and car parts. The consequence of this would be grave, especially compared to the import surcharges for steel and aluminum, which the American president has already set in motion for manufacturers from Europe. The stock market development of BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen speaks for itself – since the announcement from America from mid-May to ever louder, their stock prices have fallen sharply.
However, if you take the price development as your benchmark, you might now come to the conclusion: Maybe everything will not be so bad, Trump does not (even) realize this threat. This Thursday, German auto stocks hit record gains, starting with BMW (plus 5 percent) via Daimler (plus 4 percent) to Volkswagen (plus 4 percent). According to unanimous opinion, there is a meeting between German auto managers and the American ambassador in Berlin, Richard Grenell, behind it. He has them, it is said, so to speak a solution according to the motto “zero percent on everything” suggested – where “everything” just refers to cars and car parts. The United States would refrain from new car duties and abolish existing ones if Europeans do the same.
Of course it is the diplomat, who certainly has not presented a personal concern, but has delivered a message from his boss, free to meet the drivers of the German auto companies. However, he can not “offer” them, as it is sometimes called. Governments negotiate tariffs, and when it comes to the member states of the European Union, the EU Commission does that in Brussels; This is what the European states decided to do when they established their internal market and customs union. Commissioner Jean-Claude Juncker will soon fly to Washington and talk with the American president on trade issues.
“Sign for free trade”
If after the conversation with the ambassador again now the Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche or BMW boss Harald Krüger can call the Chancellor and tell her that putting an end to all car taxes is a good idea can affect the negotiations. The same applies to the repeated support of such a request by the CDU Economic Council, whose Secretary-General Wolfgang Steiger said: “The complete abandonment of tariffs on the import and export of cars between the United States and Europe would be an important signal for open Markets and free trade. “On the one hand.
On the other hand, such statements and calls in the Chancellery do not even need – the Federal Government is already long for it anyway. As a reminder, the negotiations on the TTIP, which covered much more than cars, are not addressed to Juncker or Angela Merkel failed (and not to Horst Seehofer). Merkel reiterated this after her meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Thursday. Rather, after assuming office, Donald Trump has put all talks on hold and put almost finished other agreements (TPPs) or existing pacts (Nafta) to the test.
But does he really want a kind of “TTIP light”? The doubts remain great. Rather, a different impression arises: Can it be that Trump discharges too many confrontations at the same time? The trade dispute with China – billion-dollar bills come into force on Friday – keeps on hotting up as he argues with Europe. The American stock exchanges are on the spot; Those who did not invest in a promising tech company at the beginning of the year did not have much added value so far (industrial companies such as Caterpillar or banks such as JP Morgan have so far suffered a price loss). In addition, he is increasingly worried about the heightened oil price, which is fueling America’s refueling, especially in the holiday season and months before important elections in which Trump and his Republicans want to defend their majority in both chambers of Congress. Over Twitter, the president announced at the weekend only to have asked Saudi Arabia for a higher oil production, now he attacked the producer organization Opec America does not help against rising gasoline prices.
Experts are frowning on this news, pointing out that Trump’s government has itself contributed to price inflation in two ways: by stimulating a well-performing economy through a stimulus package (tax reform) and boosting demand for oil, and also with Iran pushed back a potentially potent oil supplier just returned to the world market.
When it comes to car taxes, the criticism in the United States is growing. The American manufacturer General Motors warned about this with the concern for jobs. The announcement of the motorcycle manufacturer Harley Davidson, the production as a result of the EU relocate retaliatory duties. “The countries that try to intimidate Trump, especially China and the EU, have enormous spending power and are run by experienced and tough people. They are now clearly seeing how they get Trump’s attention: Aiming retaliatory tariffs on companies that Trump praised, “comments Simon Johnson, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.
It is quite possible that the American government is seeking an agreement on the car trade – without tariffs. Not only the drivers of German car companies wish for that. Maybe it’s just that Trump wants to have a reassurance on one of his many fronts, at least temporarily. Anyway today, car taxes are not off the table.