Exhaust emissions and no end: so expensive can the diesel scandal for VW still be

Volkswagen wants to tackle its dark past and start a clean future. But this week it became clear once again: the exhaust gas scandal is far from over – and it can still be expensive.

Billions of investments, dozens of new models in the planning stage and many big words about the clean car world of the future: no doubt Volkswagen Show stock market chart is determined to draw a line under his recent gloomy past and open a whole new chapter in the history of the company. A chapter under the heading Electromobility, as it was last heard at the industry show IAA in Frankfurt. “New Volkswagen” should have nothing to do with such unpleasant things as that exhaust scandal, where thousands of customers and countless shareholders feel cheated to this day.

But this part of the Volkswagen history can not be ended so easily. This was once again clear this week. At 12 noon on Tuesday afternoon, the prosecutor’s office in Braunschweig sent a mail to a large mailing list informing them of an indictment brought by them at the Braunschweig Regional Court. The accused in it: Herbert Diess, current CEO of Volkswagen, Hans Dieter Pötsch, ex-financial and now supervisory board chief of the Group, as well as the former Volkswagen boss Martin Winterkorn,

The prosecutors accuse all three, “the capital market deliberately too late on the discovery of the so-called ‘Diesel scandal’ informing the Group of billions in the Group’s substantial payment obligations and thereby having an unlawful influence on the stock market price of the company. “Or in short: Diess, Pötsch and Winterkorn are said to have been guilty of market manipulation.

In fact, on 22 September 2015, Volkswagen published a compulsory notice – a so-called ad-hoc release – on the emissions theme. However, from the point of view of investors, it was already too late: The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) had already made its allegations against the group public on 18 September 2015 – triggering a massive fall in the price of Volkswagen shares.

The three defendants have already rejected the prosecutors’ allegations. However, if the charges are allowed, Diess, Pötsch and Winterkorn will have to go to court. The pictures, which would probably go through the news for months, would not be allowed to Volkswagen fit new, clean image.

In addition, these pictures would have high symbolic value. Because while Volkswagen likes to public about current business successes as well as future projects speaks, the company still argues in the courts of the country with countless customers and investors about his past misconduct – and a lot of money.

The dispute essentially revolves around two points:

400,000 customers against Volkswagen: model procedure begins

Countless customers demand damages from Volkswagen because they see the value of their vehicles decimated by the exhaust gas scandal. According to reports, the company and its subsidiaries have already been sued more than 60,000 times nationwide. Many courts have already decided for the customers, who were then replaced by a new or equivalent amount of money.

If the trend continues, further payments may be due to Volkswagen. In addition, in Braunschweig, Germany, proceedings will begin in the coming week for a model declaration suit, which has already been joined by far more than 400,000 Volkswagen customers. This procedure should clarify the requirements of the customers in principle.

However, there is one drawback: observers expect that even the model procedure itself, which is presumably driven to the BGH as a last resort, will take a long time. Finally, if it comes to a VW driver opinion positive judgment, then each of the affected diesel customers must again go to court to assert his claim.

All this should take years. And because customers who continue to use their VW diesels will be deducted from the possible damages in the form of a user fee in favor of Volkswagen, some people may not end up with much compensation in the end.

Many lawyers advise therefore only those without legal expenses insurance to join the model suit (this is possible up to and including Friday, September 27). All others are better advised to go it alone in court.

Shareholders against Volkswagen: claims of 9 billion euros

Countless investors are also against the group, because they – similar to the prosecutor Braunschweig – believe that the Volkswagen management had informed the public too late about the problems with millions of diesel vehicles. These investors claim they have suffered losses that would otherwise have been avoided.

The central procedure under the capital investor model procedure law (KapMuG), in which the issue is to be fundamentally clarified for all investors, has been running in this case since autumn 2018, also in Braunschweig. This process is likely to last at least until the end of next year. The claims that investors make to Volkswagen in the KapMuG process total around EUR 9 billion.

The lawsuit against Volkswagen managers Diess and Pötsch and ex-CEO Winterkorn this week could be particularly important in view of the dispute between the Group and its shareholders. After all, it’s basically about the same issue.

The Tübingen lawyer Andreas Tilp, who represents the plaintiff investors in Braunschweig, weighs down on request. The criminal proceedings and civil proceedings were “two completely different pairs of boots,” said Tilp. “The plaintiffs we represent do not need help from the criminal courts to win against VW and Porsche Automobil Holding SE.”

Analyst: VW should already have covered money

But you can also see it differently. Autoanalyst Jürgen Pieper of Bankhaus Metzler, for example, says it seems quite plausible to him that, in view of the legal action, there is a growing risk that Volkswagen actually informed the events too late. This would increase investors’ chances for compensation.

Christoph Rottwilm on Twitter

In any case, Pieper assumes that Volkswagen has already covered billions for possible payments to shareholders. According to his calculations, the claims from the period in question in autumn 2015 add up to a maximum of three to four billion euros.

If the autoanalysts’ ideas are correct, then all those investors who still have shares of Volkswagen in the portfolio, can only hope that the corporation in case of emergency enough on the high edge. Otherwise, the next setback may threaten the share price.

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