The collapse in demand due to the pandemic will delay the development of this type of vehicle beyond the middle of the next decade.
MADRID, 25 Nov. (EUROPA PRESS) –
Only 1% of the cars that will be sold in Europe will be fully autonomous (level 5) in 2035, as in the Chinese market, while in the United States these models will land later, according to the report ‘Digital Auto Report 2020’ prepared by the consulting firm PwC.
As stated in this study, the closures of economies around the world caused by the pandemic will have a “significant” impact on the sector. In the short term, vehicle sales and production have fallen, but in the long term this situation will have consequences such as a slowdown in investments and a delay in the development of the autonomous car, which will not be a reality in the market until more beyond 2035.
Thus, sales of models in the most advanced stage of autonomy in the three main world markets (European Union, China and the United States) will not reach 1% of the total, in the best of cases, until 2035.
In addition, phase 4 autonomous cars will account for around 15% of sales in Europe and China, while they will only account for 2% of the market in the United States.
All this due to the crisis caused by the coronavirus, which has affected demand. According to the latest PwC estimates, worldwide vehicle sales in 2020 are expected to fall 13.9% to 64.6 million units. Therefore, production will be contained by 18.9%, with 59.6 million cars. In Europe alone, registrations will fall 28% this year, while vehicle manufacturing will decline by as much as 26.9% compared to 2019 data.
For next year, worldwide expectations point to a partial recovery in the market, with an increase in sales of 10.1% and production of 25.2%.
EVOLUTION OF THE CONNECTED CAR
In its analysis, PwC explains that due to regulatory requirements in the United States and Europe, it is expected that in 2025 the fully connected vehicle fleet will exceed 50% in the European Union, while that level will be reached in 2023 in the United States. In the US, and in China in 2029. For its part, autonomous driving will evolve with a range of use cases, “but they will still be marginal.”
The report also concludes that the situation generated by Covid-19 and the fall in investments will slow down the transition to new mobility models, although shared mobility is expected to grow.
As for the electric car, in 2025 17% and 19% of new models sold in Europe and China, respectively, will be ‘zero emissions’, although in the United States that percentage will only be 5% “due to the lack of incentives from the North American authorities “.
“The evolution of the pandemic will mark the future of a sector that has diminished its capacity to invest in the development of new technologies, but which now focuses on the short term, mainly on emission restrictions and vehicle development electric power but, above all, to recover as soon as possible the levels of world sales and production prior to Covid-19 “, has indicated the person in charge of the Automotive sector of PwC, Manuel Díaz.