Nord Stream 1 has been flowing through the pipeline since Monday morning no more gas The last most important route for Russian natural gas to Germany is waiting. Will Russia then resume delivery? Maik Cebulla (47) thinks that is unlikely. And he knows that not only will his company have a problem in the foreseeable future, but the entire German car industry.
Cebulla is Managing Director Human Resources at Saint-Gobain Sekurit Germany. Windscreens, windows or glass roofs from Sekurit are installed in every third European car. Whether VW, bmw, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis or Tesla: they all purchase vehicle glass from the company with its German headquarters in Herzogenrath in North Rhine-Westphalia. Sekurit is therefore the Achilles’ heel of the German automotive industry if there is a gas shortage – and the perfect example of why the question of gas cutoff is more difficult than one might think at first glance.
For months there has been discussion in Germany about how the country should deal with gas rationing. Already in April demanded Multi-supervisory board member Karl-Ludwig Kley in an interview with manager magazin
In the event of a gas shortage, politicians give priority to companies – instead of turning off the gas tap to industry first, as previously planned, in order to ensure the supply of private households. In recent weeks, the debate has intensified as to who will be affected by rationing, when and how.
Worst case scenario: standstill
Maik Cebulla knows that the focus will be on his industry relatively early on if the Federal Network Agency has to ration gas. Manufacturing glass is extremely energy-intensive. And without gas, nothing works in the production of glass. Cebulla is currently using all means to avert the greatest possible damage. “Everyone is trying to reorganize whatever works, to find alternatives,” he says.
At Sekurit, they have drawn up contingency plans for the worst-case scenario of a reduced gas supply or even a shutdown in the glass industry. Result: A restricted gas supply would not be tragic for Sekurit itself. The company only needs gas to heat the factory buildings, not for the production itself. The aggregates and machines are operated with electricity. If necessary, heating could also be done with oil. The company has already purchased the appropriate oil tanks and concluded supply contracts.
But there is another problem: Sekurit is part of a value chain. The company processes so-called flat glass into car glass – for windshields, for example. Sekurit obtains the preliminary product from its sister companies. And they, in turn, cannot do without the gas. The so-called melting or glass tanks, with which the raw glass is produced, only run with gas firing. “They can’t be switched off,” explains Cebulla, who himself worked for one of the other Saint-Gobain subsidiaries for many years.
The batch, which consists of various raw materials, is melted in the melting tank. “It’s a melt with a liquid tin bath,” says Professor Stefan Iskan from the Ludwigshafen University of Economics and Society, who deals with automotive supply chain management. If you switch off the glass tanks, irreparable damage occurs to the tanks, which costs up to 40 million euros and is actually only replaced every 18 to 20 years. “The only thing we can do is shut down the tubs in a controlled manner and keep them warm,” explains Cebulla. This can also be done with oil and if necessary for many months. In this way, the company has often stopped production in the past, for example when the glass market was oversupplied.
The auto industry is nervous
This scenario would have serious consequences for Sekurit and the car manufacturers. “If the raw glass no longer comes because there is no gas, then we have to shut down our plants at least for a limited time,” says Cebulla. If the vehicle glass is missing, it will also be difficult for the car manufacturers to keep up production.
The nervousness is therefore great in the auto industry. “Shutting off the gas for Germany would trigger a new parts supply crisis,” said Audi-Chief strategies Silja Pieh (47) recently. “We wouldn’t get any more car glass.” Likewise, an electric car manufacturer cannot sell a car without an aluminum battery box. Mercedes boss Ola Källenius (53) warned of drastic consequences that “affect large parts of the economy” should there be a gas supply stop.
The past few months have shown how badly supply bottlenecks can hit the automotive industry. Not only were semiconductors missing, but some cable harnesses from the Ukraine. Virtually all major automakers from BMW to Volkswagen had to cut production temporarily due to missing parts or suspend it entirely. And now a gas crisis is looming.
Political lobbying has begun
The gas crisis comes too early for Sekurit and its sister companies – the company actually decided two years ago to say goodbye to gas in the future for reasons of sustainability. With funding from the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, preliminary studies are currently examining whether glass production can be converted to hydrogen. The changeover was planned for the time of the next tub repair. That would not be until 2025/2026. The crisis increases the pressure to get off gas earlier. But the technology is not finished yet. “To be honest, we’re not that far yet,” says Cebulla.
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That is why managing directors and their colleagues fight to to be last in the switch-off sequence
. Through the industry associations, the company lobbies politicians, the Federal Network Agency and the respective utilities and network operators to take into account the economic consequences of the industry in an emergency. To do this, the company even got together with competitors, as Cebulla says. Because the industry is manageable – and until a few weeks ago it was hardly known to the public. The lobbying seems to be working. Now the industry is even a topic on talk shows in Berlin, says Cebulla proudly. “People take notice of us.”