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Powering The EV Revolution — Battery Packs Now At $156/kWh, 13% Lower Than 2018, Finds BNEF

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Published on December 4th, 2019 |

by Dr. Maximilian Holland

Powering The EV Revolution — Battery Packs Now At $156/kWh, 13% Lower Than 2018, Finds BNEF

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December 4th, 2019 by Dr. Maximilian Holland

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has released the results of its 2019 Battery Price Survey, finding that industry-weighted average battery pack prices have already fallen to $156 per kWh. This is over 13% lower than the 2018 average ($180/kWh, when adjusted for inflation), and BNEF foresees cost reductions continuing, with $100/kWh potentially being reached by 2023. Let’s dive in.

The cell/pack split ratios in my above graphic are derived from BNEF’s 2018 data, with prices updated to 2019. Here’s the original 2019 pricing data as tweeted by BNEF (click on graphic to see the full animated graph):

Note that BNEF’s pricing data is based on the industry volume-weighted average, and is not intended to be representative of cost leaders such as Tesla/Panasonic, CATL, and others. Our understanding is that Tesla is already somewhere below $100/kWh at the cell level, and likely below $140/kWh at the pack level. Volkswagen has hinted that its cell prices (likely supplied by CATL, based on NCM 811 chemistry) are also below the $100/kWh level.

BNEF projects that the overall industry’s cost reductions will continue, with $100/kWh at the pack level likely to be reached by around 2023, as stated in the above tweet. This is the point at which mass market electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to reach sticker price parity with “equivalent” combustion vehicles, whilst larger vehicle classes and premium vehicles have already passed parity in several cases. All BEVs are typically already more affordable than combustion vehicles on a total-cost-of-ownership basis, due to substantial lifetime savings on fuel and maintenance costs.

Near-Term EV Battery Trends
There’s some debate over whether the ongoing reduction in the cobalt content of battery cathodes, and the corresponding increase in nickel content (in the popular NCM 811 and NCA cathode batteries) will lead to a nickel price squeeze in the medium term, if nickel supply doesn’t grow with this fast emerging demand. Currently, a BEV with a decent-sized 55 kWh battery (e.g., the Tesla Model 3 SR Plus) may contain between 40 and 60 kg of nickel (depending on exact chemistry), with smaller-battery PHEVs containing less than half of that. Call it 38 kg per EV on average.

Tesla Model 3. Image Courtesy: Tesla

At an EV market share of 2.5% this year or early next (around 2.25 million new EVs per year), this approximates to around 85,000 metric tons of nickel demand for EV batteries, of the annual total nickel supply of around 2.3 million tons. Only around 60% of the global supply (roughly 1.4 million tons) is Class 1 nickel, suitable for use in batteries.

As EV market share approaches 10% in the coming few years, with the same high-nickel cathode chemistries, this will require 340,000 tons, some 25% of 2018–2019 global total Class 1 nickel supply. This level may be manageable, but if NCA and NCM batteries are going to take us towards 20% EV market share and beyond, then continually increasing total nickel supply will obviously be necessary. Emerging battery technologies like metal anodes (likely lithium-rich) will make existing NCA and NMC (and most other) battery cathodes go further for the same amount of raw materials, as will solid-state and semi-solid electrolytes. These technologies are already well established in the development pipeline.

Meanwhile, the venerable lithium-iron-phosphate (“LFP”) chemistries are not standing still. Battery makers are expecting LFP to remain a central pillar in the coming years, especially for the China market, with energy densities reaching beyond 200 Wh/kg at the cell level by 2020 (e.g., BYD, CATL, and BJEV). The cathode materials in LFP (iron, phosphate, oxygen, lithium, and sometimes manganese) are highly abundant and have global supply volumes well beyond the needs of even a 100% EV market share.

Volkswagen has also recently indicated that it will look to use next-generation LFP batteries in the large volume of China-market BEVs it is planning to build in the coming years.

In summary, nickel will likely be able to ramp up to meet the growing demands for NMC 811 and NCA batteries. If there is a nickel supply bottleneck, elevated nickel prices will encourage more market entrants on the supply side. In the unlikely event that further battery price reductions for NCA and NCM chemistries are permanently curtailed by high cobalt and nickel material prices, there are several other already existing chemistries and approaches able to carry the baton forwards. LFP chemistries in particular are still strongly improving their energy and cost performance, and are largely invulnerable to raw material pricing issues.

Fossil-Backed EV FUD Still Abounds
On a related note, MIT’s “Energy Initiative” group recently published a FUD-laden “Insights into Future Mobility” report (sponsored by an array of fossil fuel companies, including ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Chevron, Aramco, Equinor, GM, & Toyota).

One of its central theses is that “the price of lithium-ion battery packs is likely to drop by almost 50% between 2018 and 2030, reaching $124 per kilowatt-hour.” (MIT report, page xvi).

The report concludes from this that, “our cost analysis indicates that a mid-sized battery electric vehicle with a range of 200-plus miles will likely remain upwards of $5,000 more expensive to manufacture than a similar internal combustion vehicle through 2030.” (MIT report, page xvi).

MIT’s projected $124/kWh battery pack price in 2030 — that it deems inevitable on the basis of cobalt/nickel constraints — is obviously well out of tune with the trends on the ground, and doesn’t acknowledge the already existing plural pathways that the industry is pursuing, as discussed above. Colin Mckerracher (head of advanced transport at BNEF) has rightly rebuffed the MIT perspective in a recent tweet:

Conclusion: The rEVolution Continues!
With battery pack prices continuing to improve, by 13% in the past year, and heading towards $100/kWh by 2023 or so, the EV revolution will roll on. As well as improving battery prospects, there are still efficiencies to be found in inverters, motors, aero, tires and wheels, overall weight, and many other areas, all of which have compounding effects on making EVs ever more capable and ever more affordable.

Have you already joined the EV revolution, or are you planning to soon? Please share your thoughts in the comments.
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About the Author

Dr. Maximilian Holland Max is an anthropologist, social theorist and international political economist, trying to ask questions and encourage critical thinking about social and environmental justice, sustainability and the human condition. He has lived and worked in Europe and Asia, and is currently based in Barcelona. Follow Max on twitter @Dr_Maximilian and at MaximilianHolland.com, or contact him via LinkedIn.

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Ford Mustang Mach-E “Selling Out” Is Good News For Tesla

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Published on December 3rd, 2019 |

by Johnna Crider

Ford Mustang Mach-E “Selling Out” Is Good News For Tesla

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December 3rd, 2019 by Johnna Crider

The first edition of the Ford Mustang Mach-E has reportedly sold out. This is great news for Ford. It’s also another part of Tesla’s endgame, rather than proof of its demise, as some critics would have you believe.

First of all, though, I would like to say that the headline from MarketRealist about this news, “Forget Tesla Pre-Orders, the Ford Mach-E Has Sold Out,” didn’t sit well with me. Ford just recently unveiled the Mach-E and hasn’t delivered a single one — it won’t for a while — so how did the vehicle “sell out” already?

Well, I did some sleuthing. The headline is a bit of a stretch, not actually accurate. Perhaps it should have read, “Mach-E First Edition Sold Out.” The version that is “sold out” is just the $60,000 First Edition version. There are also the $43,895 Select, $50,600 Premium, $52,400 California RT.1 Edition, and $60,500 GT versions.

Some of the perks of getting this limited edition Ford include a First Edition badge, more range, and all-wheel drive.

Also, it’s important to note that Ford only plans to produce 50,000 of its Mach-E vehicles in 2021 due to supply issues. Taking a swipe at 250,000 preorders for the Tesla Cybertruck, as MarketRealist did in its headline, to highlight that Ford sold out of a small slice of 50,000 Mach-E vehicles doesn’t make much sense. How do a few hundred or few thousand units of the Mach-E make 250,000 Cybertruck preorders irrelevant?

Nonetheless, the Mach-E First Edition selling out is a good thing for Tesla’s goal of getting as many people driving electric as soon as possible. Even though the Mach-E isn’t a Tesla and doesn’t come with access to the Tesla Supercharger network, it is clearly Ford’s reply to Tesla’s demand that automakers hasten the shift to sustainable ways of driving. Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy. It’s doing that with every Tesla product sold, be it a car or home energy system. It’s also doing that every time a competitor sells another EV inspired or pressured into existence by Tesla. Even if Tesla doesn’t make money on this, it’s still achieving its main goal with every Ford Mach-E preorder, with every Porsche Taycan preorder, etc.

The Ford Mustang Mach-E, like the Taycan and the others, is not a Tesla killer. Tesla still leads the EV market — by far — and the Mach-E probably grows the EV market more than taking away from any other electric models.

But let’s step back for a minute and consider what success means. What do most auto companies want? Profits. What does Tesla want? To change how we get from point A to B. Tesla is transforming the industry into something that most auto companies don’t understand and can’t recognize. This is why in the beginning many scoffed, mocked, and belittled Tesla. So, any auto industry efforts in that direction are a clear win for Tesla.

Ford hopes to compete with Tesla’s Model Y — both will have a range of 300 miles, comparable size and acceleration, over-the-air software updates, a surprisingly similar touchscreen. Credit Suisse, which is bearish on Tesla, thinks Ford will be a “threat to Tesla” when it comes to the Model 3, not just the Model Y. Again, here we go with the threat and killer lingo. Analyst Dan Levy thinks that the Mach-E should “provide a compelling alternative at the Model 3 price range than other comps, especially given the performance focus.”

Dan has something of a point here. I am from Louisiana’s northwest corner, which is pretty much considered Texas by those in the southern part of the state. People love their trucks. Trucks represent a lifestyle of ruggedness and stability around here. People use them at tailgating events, for their work, and for fun. Although the Mach-E isn’t a truck, it is a Ford. In 2019, Ford was a “perennial favorite” among those polled for the U.S. News’ Best Truck Brands of 2019. Ford is the number one selling truck in America and has been for over 40 years. Many people familiar with Ford who love Ford who are intrigued by an electric vehicle will happily buy a Mustang Mach-E instead of a Tesla. But that doesn’t mean they would have bought a Tesla otherwise. They might well only buy an electric vehicle because Ford is offering one.

So, Ford just helped Tesla with its goal by making an EV for its own customers who are loyal to the brand and would never be in the market for a Tesla. For those who are put off by Tesla’s new Cybertruck, Ford will definitely be a brand they are familiar with and comfortable with when it comes to getting an electric truck (Ford is supposed to be coming out with an electric F-150).

Overall, Ford’s success with the Mach-E, which has picked up some strong design guidelines and features from Tesla, is also Tesla’s success. Some wins can be shared.

Related: Ford Mustang Mach-E Is A Tesla Ally, Ford Escape & Edge Killer (Maybe)
Follow CleanTechnica on Google News.
It will make you happy & help you live in peace for the rest of your life.

About the Author

Johnna Crider Johnna Crider is a Baton Rouge artist, gem and mineral collector, and Tesla shareholder who believes in Elon Musk and Tesla. Elon Musk advised her in 2018 to “Believe in Good.”

Tesla is one of many good things to believe in. You can find Johnna on Twitter

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