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Tesla — “Apple Of Cars” — Entering Its Golden Age

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Published on November 10th, 2018 |

by Guest Contributor

Tesla — “Apple Of Cars” — Entering Its Golden Age

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November 10th, 2018 by Guest Contributor

Originally published on EVANNEX.
By Charles Morris

Comparisons between Tesla and Apple are nothing new, but with the Silicon Valley automaker poised for a new wave of growth, it’s a good time to revisit the parallels between the two disruptive companies. A recent article from ARK Investment Management explains the similarities in eerie detail.

In 2007, Apple had already existed for three decades, but beginning in that year, a wave of new products — the iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, and App Store — catapulted the company into a new dimension, and caused revenue and market cap to grow tenfold.

Before blastoff, Apple was selling computers, which were widely regarded as a commodity product, mainly to a few niche markets such as audio/video professionals, people who resented Bill Gates and people who just had to be different. However, the company’s strategy of vertical integration and consumer focus — precisely the opposite of the business model that PC makers were pursuing — allowed it to charge premium prices and command fanatical customer loyalty.

ARK Invest Founder and CEO, Cathie Wood, talks about Tesla and points out similarities with Apple (Source: Yahoo Finance)

The parallels to Tesla should already be apparent, but looking at Tesla’s position in 2018, they become even more striking. ARK’s analysts see “the outlines of another Apple in the making,” and point out that “Tesla resembles Apple in three key areas: a strategy of vertical integration, an imminent product inflection, and a business model transitioning from hardware to services.”

Apple’s strategy of vertically integrating hardware, software, services, and retail was very much a contrarian one. In 2007, conventional wisdom was that companies should focus on “core competencies.” Apple’s competitors all specialized in one layer of the stack. However, in a time of rapid innovation, vertical integration can enable a company to get a head start on the rest of an industry by developing key enabling technologies in-house. To give just one example, Apple was able to create the first multi-touch smartphone because it created its own multi-touch system, something no other company was anywhere close to developing.

Vertical integration similarities (Source: ARK Investment Management)

“Tesla picks up on Apple’s vertical integration strategy but takes it further,” write the ARK analysts. “In addition to hardware, software, and retail, Tesla also owns and operates manufacturing facilities as well as a global Supercharger network. Vertically integrating battery pack production at its Gigafactory is why Tesla is the only high-volume EV manufacturer today. Had Tesla waited for the supply chain to catch up, it wouldn’t have been able to launch and scale the Model 3 for years. In our view, this is a key reason why no automaker has released a viable competitor to the Model 3 thus far and why no company will be able to do so until 2020 at the earliest.”

Apple’s spectacular 2007 to 2012 growth was driven by the release of the iPhone, iPad, and the App Store in quick succession. As is the case with Tesla, Apple’s vision of the products it wanted to build was often ahead of current computing, microprocessor, and battery performance. Things started to take off around 2007 because the enabling technologies to build a high-performance handheld computer finally became available. “Having built up decades of software and hardware expertise, Apple was positioned to seize this opportunity and create the blueprint for modern mobile computing,” notes ARK.

Falling cost of lithium-ion batteries (Source: ARK Investment Management)

Like Mac computers in the early 1990s, Tesla’s vehicles haven’t broken into the mainstream, because they are simply too expensive. The main reason for this is battery costs, which are dropping rapidly. ARK estimates that the cost of lithium-ion batteries will fall below $100/kWh, achieving cost parity with gasoline cars, by 2022. Elon Musk has said that he expects to reach this tipping point by the end of 2018.

This cost decline is a big deal, to put it mildly. Once EVs reach cost parity, there will simply be no technical reason for anyone to build fossil fuel cars anymore (although financial and political reasons are likely to keep them on life support for quite a while). “Tesla has spent more than a decade preparing for this moment and, in our view, has the most compelling EV pipeline of any company,” says ARK. “The Tesla Model 3 and Model Y (a crossover SUV) have the potential to catapult EVs into the mainstream, much like the one-two punch from the iPhone and iPad in mobile computing.”

A look at the growth trajectory of both Apple and Tesla (Source: ARK Investment Management)

Tesla’s vertical integration — it’s selling not just a car, but an “ecosystem” of products and services — creates many income opportunities. “In the 2000s, Apple’s iPod+iTunes combination created a dual revenue stream from hardware and music,” ARK notes. “Today, thanks to its massive installed base of iPhones, Apple offers a range of services spanning music subscriptions, cloud storage, and app sales that generates $36 billion annually and accounts for roughly a third of Apple’s market cap. Competitors like Samsung that do not control the customer relationship generate no material revenue from services.”

In ARK’s view, every successful growth company goes through a “golden era” when the stars align and expansion takes place more rapidly than anyone could have foreseen. “For Apple, that time was from 2007 to 2012. For Tesla, we believe the golden era is just beginning.”

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Guest Contributor is many, many people. We publish a number of guest posts from experts in a large variety of fields. This is our contributor account for those special people. 😀

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Germany Plays Catch Up, Pours $1.2 Billion Into EV Batteries

26 M BY WADE MALONE Currently Japanese, Korean and Chinese firms dominate battery cell production According to Reuters, Germany has earmarked $1 billion euros ($1.2 billion USD) to jump start local production of electric car battery cells. The effort is intended to reduce the reliance of German automakers on Asian battery suppliers. This investment would… Continue reading Germany Plays Catch Up, Pours $1.2 Billion Into EV Batteries

California Looks To Stationary Energy Storage As A Solution To Peaker Plants

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Published on November 9th, 2018 |

by Kyle Field

California Looks To Stationary Energy Storage As A Solution To Peaker Plants

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November 9th, 2018 by Kyle Field

Central California electric utility Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) is planning to replace three aging natural gas power plants in its network with stationary energy storage installations from Tesla.

Image credit: Pexels

The approval of the plan to replace three aging peaker power plants with stationary storage installations by the California Public Utilities Commission is the culmination of an effort by the Commission to encourage PG&E to look to stationary energy storage solutions as alternatives to the aging paradigm of natural gas-fired peaker plants.

The effort to transition utilities away from natural gas plants and to stationary energy storage supports the broader state-wide push to source 100% of its electricity from zero-emission sources by 2045, which includes adding 1.3 gigawatts of energy storage to the state’s grid by 2020.

The CPUC approved a plan to install four new stationary energy storage installations in PG&E territory that would see an additional 568 megawatts of new storage being added. The installations are led by an impressive 300 MW/1,200MWh installation by Vistra Energy Corporation that will be the largest battery storage project in the world.

“Vistra is excited for this opportunity to work with PG&E, and the State of California, to develop a world-class battery project on our Moss Landing site, while building industry-leading expertise in the development and commercialization of battery storage assets,” said Curt Morgan, Vistra’s president and chief executive officer. “The Moss Landing battery project will be the largest of its kind in the world and will position Vistra as a market leader in utility-scale battery development.”

esVolta will install and operate a 75 MW / 300 MWh Hummingbird Energy Storage LLC installation in Santa Clara County in Northern California that is planned to come into servce in December of 2020. “esVolta is delighted to be selected by PG&E for the Hummingbird project. PG&E is a leading North American energy company and a key customer for esVolta, and this contract award is an important milestone for our company as we build towards our goal of assembling a large portfolio of utility-scale, advanced energy storage projects,” said Randolph Mann, president of esVolta.

A smaller distributed installation by Micronoc Inc will see an additional 10 MW of capacity being installed across several customer locations to round out the bunch.

Tesla was contracted for the second largest installation of the bunch, with a 182.5 MW facility just to the south of San Jose, California, according to Bloomberg. After the installation by Tesla, PG&E will own the facility in what could be a transition of the operation and maintenance of what are effectively peaker plants from external operators to the utility itself. This highlights yet another advantage of grid scale stationary energy storage facilities which require FAR less maintenance and ongoing care than natural gas peaker plants.

Source: Bloomberg

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About the Author

Kyle Field I'm a tech geek passionately in search of actionable ways to reduce the negative impact my life has on the planet, save money and reduce stress. Live intentionally, make conscious decisions, love more, act responsibly, play. The more you know, the less you need. TSLA investor. Tesla referral code: http://ts.la/kyle623

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Base price of VW’s electric cars could be as low as $21,000

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VW MEB platform
Volkswagen plans to price its new generation of upcoming fully electric vehicles lower than it had previously hinted—as low as 18,000 euros for Europe, or about $21,000 for an entry-level fully electric model that will launch there in late 2019.

The news, via Reuters, comes as Volkswagen aims to make rapid changes to its manufacturing facilities. One of those plants is its Zwickau factory, targeted for a $1.4 billion transformation from building about 300,000 combustion-engine models to the same number of fully electric vehicles in 2021.

DON’T MISS: Here's the battery pack behind VW's global electric-vehicle push

The first couple of VW's new, small electric cars—the small ID hatchback in 2019 and the ID Crozz crossover in 2020—may come from Zwickau in 2019 at a slower rate, but Bloomberg reports that VW is also now targeting a plant in Emden, Germany, to build the entry-level electric model at an eventual rate of up to 200,000 per year.

The entry model will be built on the automaker’s new MEB modular electric-car underpinnings, planned for as many as 10 million cars.

Volkswagen ID electric car concept, 2016 Paris auto show

That $21,000 base price, in Germany, would land in the vicinity of a base gasoline-powered Volkswagen Golf, but it would remain thousands more than a Polo, the vehicle that’s a size smaller sold in many overseas markets.

CHECK OUT: Will Volkswagen's electric Microbus be made in the USA?

Volkswagen plans to have its more affordable MEB-based model replace the e-Golf in the lineup. We’re especially curious to see how it’s presented, priced, and sold in the U.S. next to the greenest version of the next-generation Golf, a plug-in hybrid with a longer range than the current 16 miles of all-electric range offered by the Audi A3 e-tron, which is very closely related to the overseas-only Volkswagen GTE plug-in hybrid.

VW is aiming to localize its electric-car production. It has said that at least some, if not all, of its electric vehicles sold in the U.S. will be built in the U.S., and it’s giving Chattanooga, Tennessee, where it already assembled Passat sedans and Atlas SUVs, some consideration as one of 16 key global “e-locations” for electric-car assembly.

The battery pack in this smallest MEB model is expected to be 48 kilowatt-hours—possibly equating to an EPA driving range of 175 miles or more. According to the Bloomberg report, Volkswagen may be able to offset the high price of the battery pack with a total production time that’s potentially half of a Volkswagen Golf, due to reduced complexity.

READ MORE: VW may share electric-car platform with Ford

Volkswagen hasn’t yet made an official model name known for the entry I.D., or any other model in the I.D. family for that matter. One name that’s been mentioned for the lowest-priced model is Neo, although that name hasn’t been confirmed and could remain an internal designation.

A total of 50 battery-electric models are expected from all of the VW Group’s brands by 2030. But two other models are due sooner, in 2022. One of them is the electric revival of the Microbus, called the ID Buzz in concept form, and the other is a flagship all-electric sedan, as previewed by the ID Vizzion concept, that would be more of a direct rival to Tesla, showcasing a higher level of connectivity and cabin technology.

Volkswagen ID Vizzion Concept

Either of these two later vehicles could be the vehicle that showcases the augmented-reality technology that the automaker has allowed for in the MEB platform.

The pricing news closely aligns with what executives have previously said about pricing. In September, Thomas Ulbrich, the VW Group Board of Management member in charge of e-mobility, said that the electric vehicles will be priced at the level of a comparable diesel car.

The latest pricing announcement ups the ante for other automakers, targeting a price even below that, and closer to that of a gasoline car. It’s a business model that other automakers—including Tesla—may have to eventually match.

More Background On New Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm

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Published on November 8th, 2018 |

by Dr. Maximilian Holland

More Background On New Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm

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November 8th, 2018 by Dr. Maximilian Holland

As reported earlier today, Tesla has announced the appointment of Robyn Denholm to the chair of the board at Tesla, replacing Elon Musk who has been in the role since 2004. Denholm had already been an independent director on Tesla’s board since 2014 and has decades of experience in senior finance and strategy roles at auto, technology, and software companies.

The appointment follows Tesla’s recent settlement with the SEC, which set a timeline for putting in place an independent chair, whilst Musk remains in the role of CEO and largest investor at Tesla. Since January 2017, Denholm has been engaged as Chief Operations Officer of Telstra Corporation, and will transition out of that role and into the Tesla Chair role full time over the next 6 months.

Below, we highlight a few more aspects of Denholm’s career and invite your input on this change at the top.

Robyn Denholm

Denholm has a bachelor’s degree in economics and a master’s degree in commerce. She started her career at accountants Arthur Anderson & Co (1984–1989) before moving to Toyota Australia (1989–1996) in finance and corporate reporting roles.

She was with Sun Microsystems between 1996 and 2007 in finance and strategic planning roles, moving from the Australia offices to the US in 2001. Previous to her recent 2 years as COO at Telstra, from 2007 to 2016, Denholm was with Juniper Networks in the roles of CFO and COO.

As well as serving on the board at Tesla since 2014, she also served on the board of Swiss electrical equipment multinational ABB from 2016 to 2017, a notable cleantech leader in various ways.

Denholm has extensive experience in both finance and corporate strategy, areas of discipline that will be key to Tesla maintaining its lead in the energy transition in the coming years. Denholm’s strengths should prove complementary to Musk’s vision, creativity, and technological engineering talents.

Denholm released the following statement:

“I believe in this company, I believe in its mission and I look forward to helping Elon and the Tesla team achieve sustainable profitability and drive long-term shareholder value”

Musk added:

“Robyn has extensive experience in both the tech and auto industries, and she has made significant contributions as a Tesla Board member over the past four years in helping us become a profitable company… I look forward to working even more closely with Robyn as we continue accelerating the advent of sustainable energy.”

What do you think of the appointment? Please share your thoughts in the comments.

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Dr. Maximilian Holland Max is an anthropologist, social theorist and international political economist, trying to ask questions and encourage critical thinking about social and environmental justice, sustainability and the human condition. He has lived and worked in Europe and Asia, and is currently based in Barcelona.

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