Sometimes disruption happens very quickly. In China, the proportion of “new energy vehicles”, i.e. pure electric cars and plug-in hybrids, has shot up from six to 50 percent in just four years. Not just because electric cars are cheaper, run on cheaper electricity and are quicker to get. But also because the vehicles from BYD & Co. are comparably good, significantly more digital and are now simply perceived as “cooler” than VW or BMW. Accordingly, Tesla is the only foreign manufacturer in the top 10 best-selling electric cars in China. Things are hardly looking any better for the established players in the plug-in hybrid segment: all ten top positions are occupied by cars from China, including nine BYD models. As the transformation to digital electric cars accelerates, the market shares of classic providers such as GM are increasing , VW, Mercedes, BMW, Toyota and Stellantis have fallen from a total of 57 percent in 2020 to 38 percent today because they are only relevant in the shrinking combustion engine segment. Since the Chinese market is currently barely growing, there is a cutthroat competition that is increasingly dominated by domestic providers. For the strategists in Wolfsburg, Detroit and Tokyo, after many years as a guarantor of bubbling profits, China has quickly become a painful symbol of the ” “coached” transformation towards electromobility and digitalization. The hope of being able to bridge the transformation with combustion engine sales has vanished into thin air, at least in China, as the market is changing faster than expected. In Germany, however, manufacturers are continuing to pursue this strategy undeterred, even though the balance sheet for electric cars does not look much better . In July, sales of VW electric cars fell by 47 percent (ID.3) and 68 percent (ID4./ID.5) compared to the previous year, while Mercedes models do not even appear in the ranking of the top 15 electric cars . In order to buy themselves more time, the manufacturers are now putting more effort into lobbying to push back the end of the combustion engine. Politicians are also trying to keep competition out of China with tariffs.
The plan could at least provide some breathing room in the short term: The share of electric vehicles in new registrations has recently fallen again in Germany, and imports from China have also fallen. The number of new electric vehicles registered in the EU by Chinese automakers such as BYD and SAIC’s MG brand last month fell 45 percent compared to June, according to research by Dataforce. The tariffs, which make imported cars up to 48 percent more expensive, had an effect at least in July. But the strategies in Wolfsburg, Stuttgart or Munich of driving on two tracks for as long as possible could prove to be short-sighted if more and more car markets are transformed. In addition to China, the USA could soon play an important role. While the Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris already supports the change to electric mobility, her competitor Donald Trump is now also unexpectedly adopting a conciliatory tone. “You make a great product,” Trump said in an interview with Tesla boss Elon Musk. “That doesn’t mean everyone should have an electric car, but these are small things… Your product is incredible.” Before his conversation with Musk The former president still claims that the production of electric vehicles and sustainable energy sources are bad for the economy. He wants to repeal the Biden-Harris administration’s sustainable energy policy in favor of domestic oil production “on day one.” Meanwhile, at least the Volkswagen Group is catching on “Tutorial” for the digital competition. VW has invested a lot of money in the US provider Rivian and the Chinese manufacturer XPeng in order to benefit from their digital expertise. According to media reports, Audi will equip its vehicles in China with an intelligent driving system from Huawei to become competitive.More on the topic
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