Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) hasn’t even asked for a vote of confidence yet – that will happen on December 16th – and yet there is already speculation in Berlin about the composition of the future government. Most observers and pollsters expect that the sister parties CDU and CSU will receive a relative majority in the elections on February 23 next year. Then their top candidate Friedrich Merz (CDU) would be a candidate for the office of Chancellor. In order to be elected by the Bundestag, he would have to form a coalition in which there would likely be a fierce tussle for the ministerial positions right from the start. The Union is currently saying that there is no “shadow cabinet” with its candidates for the offices ; We had bad experiences with such cabinet lists before the last election in 2021, which was lost. But of course there are already names circulating. A dozen Union members are being discussed for economic, financial, social, energy, digital policy and other central offices. There are 15 federal ministries in the current legislative period. There were already 20 in the 1960s, and under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) there were only 13 between 2002 and 2005. Linnemann for economics? The CDU general secretary and doctor of economics Carsten Linnemann, a close confidant of Merz, is considered a possible candidate for the Federal Ministry of Economics . Since his time in the SME and Economic Union, Linnemann has been concerned with economic and labor market policy. When Merz recently suggested that he might combine business and work in one ministry, as he once did under Wolfgang Clement (SPD), it was interpreted in Berlin as a sign of a super ministry for Linnemann. However, in a coalition with the SPD, the latter would certainly insist on the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs. External content from Opinary In order to display external content, your revocable consent is required. Personal data from third-party platforms (possibly USA) may be processed. More information. Activate external contentLinnemann wants to focus less on guidelines and more on personal responsibility in economic policy. The central demand is to return to a financially less attractive “new basic security” instead of citizens’ money. What exactly should be included in Linnemann’s “Agenda 2030”, which is announced for the beginning of January, is currently still being worked out. “Above all, we will once again rely on the forces of the social market economy,” he promised in a recent F.A.Z. interview. Linnemann’s most important economic policy points will be included in an immediate program, which he also wants to present before the election. In addition to the basic security, this will include the “active pension”, which will enable retirees to earn up to 2,000 euros a month tax-free. It is unclear whether the energy and climate protection departments will remain in a ministry of economics led by Linnemann. If so, he has new ideas for that too: Nuclear energy should remain an option, and the production of “red” hydrogen from nuclear power must also be permitted. Free as Interior Minister? If Linnemann does not become a specialist minister, he could become parliamentary group or head of the Chancellery – depending on what Thorsten Frei, who is also considered for these offices, wants. Frei is currently the first parliamentary managing director of the Bundestag faction and the right-hand man of faction leader Merz. Linnemann is something similar for Merz in his capacity as party chairman. Both Frei and Linnemann play a key role in writing the election program. Union experts also believe it is possible that the domestic politician Frei could take over the office of Interior Minister. That would be a sign of migration policy, because the lawyer appeared in the FAZ in 2023. called for a move away from the individual right to asylum. However, the CSU is also flirting with the Ministry of the Interior in order to show its “hard hand” in internal security. Two politicians in particular are fighting for the sovereignty of interpreting economic policy in the Union parliamentary group in this legislative period: the deputy parliamentary group leader and former health minister Jens Spahn and the economic political party Spokesperson and former Minister of Agriculture Julia Klöckner. Spahn has made it clear that he would like to move into the Ministry of Finance. Between 2015 and 2018 he was Parliamentary State Secretary under Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU). However, if the FDP makes it into the next coalition, it will likely claim the Finance Ministry. That speaks more in favor of Spahn as economics minister. In this respect, Spahn has recently made a name for himself as a critic of the Building Energy Act. “We are ending Habeck’s subsidy programs,” said Spahn in the F.A.Z. Podcast for Germany. The Union will “take back” the heating law. Then there would be no need for 20 billion euros in funding, railed Spahn; In fact, in 2024 it will only be about 16.7 billion. Spahn against Habeck Spahn is rarely at a loss for clear words, even in the Bundestag. “We handed you a country in growth, and you turned it into a country of recession and stagnation,” he accused Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) in mid-September in the debate on the – now lapsed – 2025 budget. Alluding to the high approval ratings for the AfD, Spahn added: “Your green economic miracle has become a blue miracle of fears of decline and recessions.” Blaming the current misery solely on the traffic lights is tricky: the situation in industry has been deteriorating since then 2018. Migration policy, the coal and nuclear phase-out and the previous dependence on Russian gas are also the responsibility of governments under Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU). But the force with which the job cuts at VW, Thyssenkrupp, Bosch, ZF and other companies are now impacting the Union suits the Union. The fact that Spahn deepened contacts in the Republican Party even before the US election and even spoke of “common interests” was also seen as a signal that he was warming up for the office of economics minister. However, the fact that Spahn, like Merz and Linnemann, comes from North Rhine-Westphalia speaks against a ministerial office. This could be difficult to implement for reasons of party proportionality. Spahn may therefore become parliamentary group leader of the Union. Söder wants to appoint the agriculture minister Julia Klöckner criticizes the traffic light policy as often as Spahn and also with sharp words, but is not as present in public as he is. Under Merkel, she led the Ministry of Agriculture for four years. Her term in office included the severe drought in 2018, to which the federal and state governments responded with financial aid for farmers, but also the start of the farmers’ protests in 2019. The Greens in particular accused Klöckner of being too close to the economy, especially to companies like Nestle. In Berlin, Klöckner is also being discussed as President of the Bundestag and as Development Minister for the next legislative period, provided that this department is not integrated into the Foreign Office. The CSU leader, Bavaria’s Prime Minister Markus Söder, has claimed the position of Agriculture Minister in the federal government for his party. He wants the President of the Bavarian Farmers’ Association, Günther Felßner, to succeed Cem Özdemir (Greens). The head of the CSU regional group in the Bundestag, Alexander Dobrindt, should also receive “a large ministry” in Berlin, said Söder, without being more specific. Ranked number one on the CSU list in Bavaria, Dobrindt is, so to speak, the Christian Social Party’s top candidate for the federal election. He was Transport Minister from 2013 to 2017. The third CSU post could go to Dorothee Bär, currently deputy parliamentary group leader. In the last Merkel government, she was the Federal Government Commissioner for Digitalization. That is why there is speculation that she could become digital minister. Whether with the transport department as before or without remains to be seen. Bär was State Secretary in the Ministry of Transport under Dobrindt, so that could fit.More on the topicOn the other hand, it was recently heard that the Union would like to upgrade the Digital Ministry and set it up as a solitary entity. It is also conceivable that Bär would receive the Ministry of Research and Education. Karin Prien from the CDU, the current education minister from Schleswig-Holstein, is also being considered for this purpose. The deputy party leader of the CDU and energy policy group spokesman Andreas Jung is conceivable for the Environment Ministry, to which climate policy from the Ministry of Economic Affairs and climate foreign policy from the Foreign Office could return. He is head of the powerful state group from Baden-Württemberg. In order to represent the important regional association of Hesse, a job could also be sought for Ines Claus. She is the only leader of a Union state parliamentary group. It will be important that Merz gathers enough Union women in the new cabinet, which speaks for all of the politicians mentioned. There is also likely to be an East German representative. That could be Tino Sorge from Magdeburg, the group’s health policy spokesman. He recently said that the Union is claiming the post of Health Minister. If a coalition with the SPD comes about, incumbent Karl Lauterbach is unlikely to give up his office without a fight. In general, you should not distribute the bear’s fur until it has been killed. Whether and how many ministerial positions Chancellor Merz would have to give to his own people will only be decided after the election in February and after the formation of a coalition – with whomever.
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