With the tailwind of the records on Wall Street and the expected monetary stimulus from key interest rate cuts – from the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank – as well as recently slightly lower bond yields, the DAX has left its several-month consolidation below 19,600 points with a new technical buy signal. That’s what happened despite the political uncertainties in France and Germany (federal election in February 2025). As a result, after jumping over the 20,000 point mark in the ongoing Christmas and year-end rally, the index is on the way to the first milestone for 2025 of 21,000 points. The index has good market breadth among the DAX stocks and particularly drawn by the attractive location of the “technical driving horses”. As a consequence, the technical milestones for SAP and Deutsche Telekom should be raised. The new investment buy signal for Heidelberg Materials should also be highlighted positively. What makes the move horses? From a technical point of view, the market breadth is the isolated technical situation of the index stocks. The technical quality of uptrends and technical bulls (as well as downtrends and technical bears) is higher the more stocks with their respective, isolated technical situation accompany the corresponding index movement. The “technical driving forces” play a key role. These are stocks that also have a high index weight and, as a result, give the index upward or downward movements the appropriate stability and momentum. Currently, the bad news about the key German industry, car manufacturers and suppliers, the (economic -)Headlines. The six DAX stocks from this area (Mercedes, BMW Stammen, VW Vorfragen, Continental, Porsche AG Vorrechte, Porsche Automobil Holding Vorrechte) had each reached new annual lows in the past few weeks and therefore contributed little to the current DAX bull market. From an index perspective, these six values together only account for around 6.4 percent of the DAX weight, so that due to the price development of the past few months/years, there has been a kind of “dwarfing” in terms of their importance in the index Dax, which comprises approximately 80 percent of the market capitalization in free float on the German stock market, can only be representative of the development of the stock market and not of the development of the German economy or (domestic) economy. It should be taken into account here that, for example, the state with its share in German economic life and also the very large medium-sized companies in Germany are hardly represented on the stock exchange. New price targets for SAP and TelekomThe technical driving forces such as SAP (new medium-term, technical milestone: 250, 0 euros; new, increased hedging stop at 198.0 euros), Siemens and Deutsche Telekom (new medium-term technical milestone: 34.0 euros; new, higher hedging stop at 25.0 euros) with their currently very successful business models currently represent 33.3 percent of the DAX and mask the price development of the economically sensitive stocks. Added to this are the new all-time highs of stocks such as the Deutsche Börse (new technical milestone of 240.0 euros ; new higher hedging stop: 185.0 euros), Rheinmetall and now also at Siemens Energy and Heidelberg Materials.Heidelberg Materials AG, the former HeidelbergCement AG and before that Heidelberger Zement AG, is one of the largest building materials groups in the world, with its business focus on the production, sale and distribution of asphalt, ready-mixed concrete, cement and aggregates. A milestone in global expansion was the takeover of the British construction group Hanson in 2007, worth around 14 billion euros. The extensive capital increase in 2009 and the placement of shares from the then major shareholder ensured a significant increase in market capitalization in the free float – currently The free float is a good 74 percent – and thus laid the index-technical foundation for inclusion in the Dax 30 in June 2010. To display external content, your revocable consent is required. Personal data from third-party platforms (possibly USA) may be processed. More information. Activate external contentA very special challenge for Heidelberg Materials and the entire sector is and remains the energy consumption and CO2 emissions required for the production process and subsequent logistics. Since the old all-time high in the summer of 2007 of just under 112.0 euros and the multi-year low of 18.0 euros in March 2009 (the height of the financial crisis at the time), the Heidelberg Materials share has moved in a very volatile sideways pendulum movement. During this period there were several alternating, “normal” technical bullish and bearish movements. A second, highly volatile sideways oscillation has been occurring since 2017. Starting from the Corona bear market low of EUR 29.0 in March 2020, the title is once again in an upward movement. Starting from 43.7 euros in September 2022, Heidelberg Materials has managed to establish a bull market and in recent quarters a bull trend (bull trend line of currently 90.0 euros) directly below the rising 200-day line. Since March 2024, the stock has been in a medium-term consolidation below the small resistance zone around 105.0 euros, which has already had a trend-confirming character (upward). More on the topic The share recently started with a new investment buy signal, with the When new all-time highs were reached, the upward sideways swing that had existed for 17 years was also abandoned. From a higher-level, technical perspective, this suggests that Heidelberg Materials has the opportunity for a technical re-evaluation with significantly higher price quotations. For the value, there is an expected (gross) dividend of 3.2 euros (general meeting on May 15, 2025; in this This year there was a distribution of 3.00 euros) and a (gross) dividend yield of approximately 2.6 percent. The next medium-term technical target is the area of 140.0 euros. Despite the good overall technical situation, however – as part of risk management – every position in the share should have a strategic hedging stop of 90.0 euros (directly below the current bull market). trend line).Achim Matzke is managing director of Matzke-Research.
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