Because of the stricter emissions limits for the fleets of cars newly registered by manufacturers since the beginning of 2025, there are new discussions about easing them. At the same time, car manufacturers have begun to team up to have the emissions of new car fleets measured together. As was announced in Brussels, two so-called pools for emissions have now been registered, one for the manufacturer Tesla, which focuses purely on electric cars, Stellantis, including the Chinese manufacturer Leapmotor, Toyota, Ford, Mazda and Subaru. A second alliance has been registered for Mercedes including Smart, Volvo Cars and Polestar. The second alliance does not cause any surprises, as Mercedes had left no doubt that it would seek an emissions pool. The companies are connected to each other in different ways. Volvo Cars and Polestar are controlled by the Chinese Geely Group, which also holds almost 10 percent of the shares in Mercedes. At the same time, Smart is now a joint venture between Mercedes and Geely; The new generation of Geely’s all-electric Smart models will be manufactured in China. Polestar also only offers battery-electric cars, while Volvo Cars’ sales are largely electric. UBS analysts led by Patrick Hummel estimate that Volvo Cars could receive compensation of 300 million euros from the emissions pool, which would also explain an increase in the company’s share price. Surprise by Stellantis The analysts are surprised that Stellantis is now part of an emissions pool has joined. The former CEO Carlos Tavares had repeatedly said that Stellantis would manage to comply with the reduced limits on its own. The new head of Europe, Jean-Philippe Imparato, recently appeared combative and also told the F.A.Z. that in principle 21 percent of electric cars would be sold in the new year, which should mean that only 79 percent of other drive types would be produced and delivered. The analysts assume that in this way Stellantis is under less pressure to bring the announced models onto the market as quickly as possible. Because some development projects have been delayed. There is now debate as to whether Volkswagen would also have to join the emissions pool around Tesla in order to achieve the targets. At the same time, however, it is questionable whether there is still room to redistribute emissions credits in the already fairly full emissions pool with Japanese manufacturers with a narrow range of electric cars. The five manufacturers involved alongside Tesla accounted for around 29 percent of the market in the EU registration statistics from January to November 2024, while Tesla also accounted for 2.2 percent. 15 billion euros in penalties? The specialist information service “Automotive News” in turn quotes experts with the verdict, that the emissions pools may only serve as a hedge for the companies involved in the event that the emissions targets were not met. The new Volkswagen brand sales director Martin Sander told Automotive News that the goals could be achieved solely with a growing range of battery-electric models that could achieve a sales share of 25 percent. Meanwhile, the discussion about possible modifications to the new, stricter fleet limits continues . The European auto industry association Acea sounded the alarm with the news that the industry would have to pay up to 15 billion euros in fines. The environmental association Transport & Environment estimates the expected fine at only 1 billion euros.More on the topicThe European Commission has not yet responded to the ongoing calls for the suspension of the penalties. The responsible EU climate commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, once again confirmed that he wanted to stick to the climate penalties for car manufacturers. Responding to a parliamentary question from the European Parliament, Hoekstra stressed that the Commission was aware of the concerns of some manufacturers “about whether they can meet their 2025 emissions target in the face of increased global competition and a shrinking vehicle market.” However, other large European manufacturers say they are confident that they will achieve the targets and are therefore against changes to the EU rules for CO2 fleet limits. “Changing the regulations would distort the conditions of competition and disadvantage these manufacturers,” Hoekstra further emphasizes. However, the commission is sticking to reviewing the requirements in 2026. This corresponds to the position that the Commission has taken since autumn last year, when the first calls for a suspension of penalties arose.
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