In contrast to others, BMW boss Oliver Zipse does not want to make any dark forecasts for the consequences of the American President Donald Trump. “A lot will move in the customs debate by summer. This year a good balance in the negotiations with the USA could be achieved,” he hopes, but first of all the concerns of the auto industry are dominating the debate. This promotes the reflex to act quickly. While Trump has suspended general tariffs compared to the European Union until July, various “sectoral tariffs” already apply to the import of cars in the USA: 27.5 percent for cars as well as 10 or 35 percent for auto parts and 50 percent for pick-ups and off-road vehicles. Trump threatens with even higher sentences. Selbst in the US factories, in which BMW and Mercedes have been producing hundreds of thousands of SUVs annually, the tariffs on auto parts now turn the cost calculations upside down. In Mexico, BMW, Mercedes and Volkswagen actually wanted to build the cheaper part of the models for the United States, but now these cars with import duties in the US car dealerships would be as expensive as the more luxurious models. GM and Ford are also in front of difficulty Audi also wanted to continue to deliver his most important SUV called Q5 from a Mexican factory to the USA and are now in front of the customs barrier. Porsche has its most important market in the USA, but produces everything in Europe. A year production of 50,000 type 911 sports cars between Stuttgart and a new location in the USA seems little profitable, but on the other hand, difficulties for car manufacturers and car markets of the USA are piling up. The two large generals and Ford recently produced only 55 percent and 78 percent of their US sales in their own country. The production of models for the price -sensitive lower market segments, with hard competition from Japanese and Korean brands, was outsourced to the cheaper manufacturing locations Mexico and Korea. The same applies to supplied parts with a labor -intensive production, for which the Mexico location had noticeable cost advantages. If it is likely that Trump’s auto duties will show significant positive effects in the USA in the near future. Honda, Hyundai, Volkswagen, Audi and Mercedes have announced that they may move production to the USA. Insofar as there is not just a negotiation tactic for the Trump government, such shift plans for long-term strategies are to increase the market share in the USA. Mercedes and Audi may want to produce their most sales models in the US market there. The local VW offer in the country has so far been poor and could tolerate a supplement. Donald Trump hinders BMW and Mercedes unnecessary short-term term such announcements will not have any effects in the United States, even less if Trump artificially increases the import of factory equipment. Initially, only a few union -controlled factories around Detroit, which have not yet been busy or closed because they have not produced at competitive costs, can only benefit from tariffs. Due to the uncertainty about Trump’s daily policy, the car manufacturers have so far been targeting price increases, but once the tariffs have actually been decided, prices will increase. In the end, the price of a Porsche or Ferraris may not care, but poorer can hardly afford a formerly cheap model from Mexico and have to postpone buying a car. With higher prices, sales in the USA will decrease, Europe could then exceed the sales figures. Outside of the United States, 82 to 84 percent of the auto world market, on which the large US corporations do not gain competitiveness. Conversely, Trump hinders the largest auto exporters in the USA – BMW and Mercedes – unnecessary through its maneuvers. Should the EU now make great concessions to prevent Donald Trump from his weakening of the Autoland USA? The better answer from the EU would be a quick conclusion of customs agreements for other countries, such as with Mercosur, and patient waiting, in case of doubt with a few months. Because if the Americans really got into the “pleasure” of the consequences of Trump’s customs policy, this should significantly strengthen the EU’s negotiating position.
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