The stock exchanges initially started in a good mood on Monday: The customs agreement between the European Union and the United States has increased the German stock index DAX by almost one percent at the start of trading. The index seemed to be able to take its record high of 24,639 points almost three weeks ago. For the M-DAX of medium-sized values, it was temporarily 0.8 percent up to 31,730 points. The Eurozone-Leindex Euro Stoxx 50 won one percent. The oil price also gave up around 1.1 percent, but the gold price gave up. All of this sounded like a “risk on” scenario: the investors brave courage again. “The speculation on a trade agreement between the United States and the European Union has emerged,” commented Markt analyst Jochen Stanzl from the Handelshaus CMC Markets.Auto shares long afterwards, but you could get the impression that the investors took a closer look at the deal – and were not quite as confident in the evaluation. The bottom line is that the deal feels more like a defeat, it said among Börsians. The German auto stocks, whose courses had previously benefited from the deal, gave in. Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz turned into the minus. With a price loss of 2.3 percent, the VW share was even the bottom of the DAX. Like auto stocks, they had benefited from the US-EU customs deal for the opening of the stock exchange, but were able to defend their profits better in contrast to them in the further course of trade. The deal had removed the last concerns about the loads by tariffs, commented Richard Vosser, analyst of Bank J.P. Morgan, in a study on the German laboratory and pharmaceutical supplier Sartorius. Its shares temporarily increased 1.3 percent, also benefiting from a positive analyst comment from Bernstein Research. The titles of the pharmaceutical company Merck KGAA won two percent in the course. German armaments shares, on the other hand, lost: for Rheinmetall it was at times 1.6 percent down, 3.8 percent for Hensoldt and 4.3 percent for Renk. Later, some of these stocks caught a little again and limited the price losses. “The long-awaited deal is standing,” said Ulrich Stephan, the chief of chief of Deutsche Bank for private and corporate customers. At the same time, he warned of too much euphoria: “The agreement reduces uncertainty, but the discussions about tariffs will continue to accompany us – albeit at a lower level.” “A jubilee mood on the stock exchanges has not occurred, and it would not be justified,” said Michael Heise, chief economist from HQ Trust. The agreement was largely the expectations that had formed on the financial markets after the similarly stored deal with Japan. “The deal does not justify the reason for optimism on the stock exchanges,” said Heise. The growth of gross domestic product is weakened by the higher tariffs in the EU and the United States. The additional customs pollution for Germany should be able to cope with the additional customs load, but the first market reaction was “positive”, but nevertheless “manageable”, commented on Markus Reinwand, stock market strategist from the Landesbank Hessen-Thuringia. One could say rationally what the markets have not worried so far could not make a lot of relief in the event of a positive output of the customs dispute. After all, the investors at the markets have prepared themselves since the beginning of the “customs break” that Trump would finally take a backward. For this mechanism – Trump threatens at first, but then pinches – there is the keyword Taco (“Trump Always Chickens Out”). From a fundamental perspective, the evaluation argument was crucial for the further course of the course, said Reinwand: “The most important stock indices move significantly above its fair area and are therefore expensive – the risk premium was also in the past in the past Months declined. ” At first glance, an environment of low interest rates and a brightening economy clearly speak for dividend titles. However, the fundamental data currently only delivered what stocks had anticipated with their strong increase for months, Reinwand said: “So it would have to be even better so that higher notations could be fundamentally justified for shares.” Blick is now based on the fundamental news for the stock exchanges, said Carsten Brzeski, Economist of the Bank Ing. Even if the current scenario at the markets was largely priced. “Since the exchanges are merciless and immediately drive the next sow through the village, investors will now be back on the American central bank Federal Reserve, the session this week and the continued feud between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell,” said Brzeski. It is about the “OB” and the “when” a key interest rate in the United States. The two -day meeting of the American central bank ends on Wednesday. It is expected that despite the pressure of the President, the FED will be able to will will be willing to be 4.25 to 4.5 percent. “In the medium term, it will be about the real and real -economic effects of the announcements of the past few weeks,” said Brzeski: “Above all, the development on Europe’s stock exchanges will depend on the big words of some government heads Investments and more defense spending will also follow acts. ”More on the topic of further course on the stock exchanges, more on the results of the reporting season should also depend. According to calculations by the Dekabank, the S&P 500 and the Stoxx 600 report 163 and 185 companies with almost 40 percent of the market capitalization in the coming days. In the DAX, there will be around a quarter of the companies this week, there will be almost 50 percent in the coming week. The analysts describe the start of the American reporting season as “good”. More than 80 percent of the companies have exceeded profit forecasts. In Europe, the start was bumpy – but the picture has also improved.
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