The spread of electromobility has recently experienced some “headwind”, but now it could be upwards until 2035. This is the knowledge when looking into the future of electromobility in an investigation by the advisory company Strategy &. In the presentation of the management consultants, the term “headwind” means that sales development for battery -electric cars (BEV) has not been as well as in the optimistic forecast of 2023. Nevertheless, the numbers now point steeply. The summit of the production of burner cars has already been exceeded in 2017. The spread of the BEV has now progressed so far that scale effects would be felt from 2025 in the production of these battery -electric cars. However, the development of the BEV market was very different: around 6.7 million BEV were sold in China in 2024, and battery-electric cars had reached a market share of 26 percent, in Europe the BEV sales figures reached two million or 15 percent market share, in the United States in 2024 only 1.2 million sales and eight percent of the market. Strategy & expects that with new dynamics for electric cars, the global BEV share of 15 percent in 2024 will increase to 60 percent in 2035. Better technology and lower costs As a driver of the management consultants, three driving forces for the growth of the sales figures for BEV: First, it is technical innovations, some of which are connected with falling production costs for cars-this is the second reason. Third, the total costs for the operation of electric cars for car buyers are lower. A positive impact on the development of sales of electric cars by 2030 would also have CO2 taxes for combustion cars, with which the operation of burners will become relatively more expensive. Adequate availability of charging infrastructure means a certain boost for the spread of electric cars this year. By 2030, the positive development for electric cars will also ensure that the loss of value of used electric cars will equalize to those of the combustion engines. This means that the purchase of electric cars can then become more attractive, and the leasing rates can also fall. The chemistry of the battery cells and the technology of the electrical drives, according to Strategy & always provide new technical improvements. This facilitates the increase in the electrical reach that was once considered a critical factor. On the other hand, Strategy & says that there is an important motive to reduce the consumption of the battery -electric car: This enlarged the range without making the batteries larger and more expensive. Activate external content “The striving for lower energy consumption is an area in which European vehicle manufacturers can show their system competence,” says Jörn Neuhausen, Head of Electromobility at Strategy &. According to the management consultancy, the consumption of the electric cars, which was previously estimated with a good 20 kilowatt hours for 100 kilometers, has been reduced by five to ten percent since 2018. Now a further reduction is expected by up to 15 percent, although one does not believe that the threshold of twelve kWh can be below 100 kilometers. For drivers, this definitely means that the operating costs for electric cars could tend to be lower. The pace of innovations for electric cars in turn requires a fundamental change in the working method of the automotive companies. Because German car companies such as Volkswagen have so far been planning for combustion models with product cycles of six to eight years, and the platforms or the technical parts building box for the combustion models are on at least two autogenerations. The electric car is another world, says Jörn Neuhausen from Strategy &: A car from today’s combustion world is probably not very different from a model from six to eight years, with exception the exhaust technology. “In the case of established and optimized combustion models for decades, the innovation curve is now flatter than in the electrical world.” In contrast, the speed of the change is still high for the electric cars: “Six to eight years for a product cycle are a long period of time that would mean that you can use 2019 electric cars today,” says Neuhausen. “Comparable, for example, the development of the iPhone, which after six years no longer meets the requirements that can be expected today.” Higher charging capacity is becoming a greater ranges with the same battery size and lower energy consumption of electric cars for management consultants, better and better technology for reloading the electric cars that make electric cars increasingly attractive. This also focuses on the maximum charging capacity of the BEV. “Now it is important to improve charging comfort through higher charging capacity,” says Strategy & Department Head of 500 to 800 kilometers and charging power of new models of up to 400 kW for the perspective of the management consultants New accents: “We believe that we have now reached range and loading speed at a performance level with which you can manage long distances. In the future, a car with over 1000 kilometers of range will come onto the market, but we believe less that such a model would make economic sense and that such a car would be produced in large numbers, ”says Neuhausen. Major from batteries and electrical drives. Sports car manufacturers also presented studies with charging services of 600 or 700 kW, but at most for a market niche. In general, it is assumed that the 800-volt technology for the drive electrical system and 400 kilowatt charging power would penetrate the standard and after and after the market. According to Strategy & the expected acceleration of the drive turn in the direction of the electrical car, strategy & also upheavals in the auto industry. The most important thing is the growth of the division for batteries and electric drives. Their overall international sales will more than double in five years, from 272 billion euros for 2025 to 634 billion euros in 2030, the forecast. The total volume of sales for 2030 divides into 389 billion euros or 60 percent for battery cells and battery packaging, then in 186 billion euros or 30 percent for electric drives. The total amount of 634 billion euros expected for 2030 for the business with batteries and electric drives exceeds sales that Volkswagen, Stellantis and Mercedes-Benz would have generated together in 2024, and also by far the sum of the sales of the 20 largest European car suppliers. However, it is currently to be expected that in 2030 the battery cell production of the world of China will have a market share of 70 percent, South Korea of 15 percent and Europe only 5 percent. More on the themed agency Neuhausen, an Asian dominance of battery cell production means a threatening scenario for Europe’s car industry: “Without its own battery cell production, Europe is still losing more value added towards Asia. Stronger than automobile manufacturers. Financing investment risks for battery cell production. “We expect a market size for around 100 billion euros and corresponding magnitude when securing financing.” At the same time, Philipp Rose, director at Strategy & in Germany, also wants the Europeans to copy Chinese catch -up strategies: “A few decades ago, market access in China was only possible for European companies if you founded a joint venture with Chinese companies because the Chinese Wanted to serve and learn a technology transfer.
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