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Tesla Autopilot, Full Self Driving, Elon Musk, ARK Invest — CleanTech Talk with Tasha Keeney

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Published on April 20th, 2019 |

by Zachary Shahan

Tesla Autopilot, Full Self Driving, Elon Musk, ARK Invest — CleanTech Talk with Tasha Keeney

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April 20th, 2019 by Zachary Shahan

For our hot new CleanTech Talk podcast interview series, I recently sat down with ARK Invest Analyst Tasha Keeney to discuss various aspects of autonomous vehicles, Tesla, Tesla, and Tesla. Tasha is focused on autonomous cars and 3D printing in her position at ARK Invest. She and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood recently hosted Tesla CEO Elon Musk in the studio for their new podcast series, so we built off of that chat and I also brought in several key autonomy topics I’m always eager to learn more about.

The conversation was approximately 45 minutes long, so to cut it down into more manageable portions, I’ve split it into two episodes. This is the first episode, and the second will be published tomorrow. Listen to the discussion on your favorite podcast platform (options linked below) or via this embedded player:

You can subscribe and listen to CleanTech Talk is on: Anchor, Apple Podcasts/iTunes, Breaker, Google Podcasts, Overcast, Pocket, Podbean, Radio Public, SoundCloud, Spotify, and Stitcher.

To kick off, I asked Tasha about her background and how it fit into ARK Invest. She was previously a management consultant, mostly in the auto industry on the supply chain side of the story. We slid into a short chat about the autonomous vehicle industry as a whole and suppliers in the industry before making our way to Tesla and the large team of experts at the company who are focused on advancing Tesla Autopilot on a daily basis, and who meet with Elon on a weekly basis.

I then brought up my favorite CleanTechnica article on Tesla autonomous driving, one written by Mike Barnard in 2015 and republished last year when Tesla hit 1 billion miles on Autopilot. I highly recommend reading that article before or after listening to the podcast. Tasha took that summary and got more technical, explaining part of why they are bullish about Tesla’s autonomy approach.

I also touched on a Navigant Research report that puts Tesla near the bottom of the list for self-driving vehicle strategy and development. I had found those conclusions to be confusing, but also had a general hunch why they were what they were, so I was curious to hear Tasha’s take on that. She focused on the point that Tesla doesn’t use prototype vehicles, which may confuse analysts, and that there’s perhaps over-reliance on California disengagement reports (which are actually not standardized and are self-reported).

Another top topic of curiosity for me for years has been exactly how and how much Tesla uses “ghost driving” or “shadow mode” to improve Autopilot and eventual Full Self Driving. Clearly, Tesla’s approach involves learning from drivers who have Autopilot on and then disengage for some reason, but I also wonder how much Tesla’s software is learning how to drive simply from monitoring what the human drivers do without Autopilot activated. Tasha’s take on this from talking to Elon is that the Autopilot disengagements are particularly important but that the system must be learning to some degree from the shadow mode testing. (This is really a topic it would be cool to talk about with Elon or one of his Autopilot team members, as there’s still plenty of mystery here.)

Lex Fridman at MIT has been tracking Tesla Autopilot miles and last we heard had the figure just over 1 billion. Tasha has built on that work for ARK Invest to come to the conclusion that Tesla vehicles with “Autopilot hardware 2” have driven 10 billion miles, better capturing or quantifying the miles that are potentially involved in ghost/shadow learning.

Getting to the topic of full self driving, Tasha touches on Elon’s comment on the ARK Invest podcast that he and the crew think Tesla vehicles “will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year,” and could be ready for drivers to go to sleep behind the wheel a year later — but that depends mostly on regulators. Tasha said that is probably an aggressive timeline, but considering it’s coming from Elon, how could it not be? Going back to the ARK Invest interview with Elon, these were his words on that matter: “My guess as to when we would think it is safe for somebody to essentially fall asleep and wake up at their destination? Probably towards the end of next year. That is when I think it would be safe enough for that.” Again, though, it’s up to regulators when that is permitted, so Tasha and I discussed that topic of regulators/regulations for a few minutes.

We then briefly talked flying taxis and electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft — fun topics, but that will be a topic for another analyst and podcast discussion.

We ended the first part of this two-part discussion by chatting about the processing power needed in autonomous vehicles, the importance of that for over-the-air software updates, and Tesla’s overall hardware and software leadership. Highlighting this challenge for conventional, established automakers, Tasha had this to say:

“We call it here at ARK the sort of ‘old DNA’ issue — when innovation happens that you can sort of be caught flatfooted if you’re very stuck in your ways. I think that’s a huge problem for the traditional autos. And same thing with autonomy.

“If they were to do this, they have an even larger fleet than Tesla, right? They could get this data. But Tesla started years ahead of them. So, we think it’s possible they could just totally run away with this opportunity.”

As part of this whole matter, Tasha and I talked about a presentation from George Hotz (aka geohot) and a brief Q&A I had with him in which he emphasized Tesla was so far ahead on software in part because the company was so far ahead on hardware. For more on that, I recommend this CleanTechnica exclusive: Geohot: Tesla Autopilot = Apple iOS, Comma.ai = Android.

The second part of our interview with Tasha Keeney will be published tomorrow here on CleanTechnica, including on the CleanTech Talk portion of our site. In the meantime, I recommend this article and podcast for more on these topics: Elon Musk: Full Self-Driving Teslas This Year, “Unequivocal” Tesla Autopilot Improves Safety.

Interested in buying a Tesla Model 3, Model S, or Model X? Need a referral code to get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging? Use ours: http://ts.la/tomasz7234 (or not).

About the Author

Zachary Shahan Zach is tryin' to help society help itself (and other species). He spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as its director and chief editor. He's also the president of Important Media and the director/founder of EV Obsession and Solar Love. Zach is recognized globally as an electric vehicle, solar energy, and energy storage expert. He has presented about cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, and Canada.

Zach has long-term investments in TSLA, FSLR, SPWR, SEDG, & ABB — after years of covering solar and EVs, he simply has a lot of faith in these particular companies and feels like they are good cleantech companies to invest in. But he offers no professional investment advice and would rather not be responsible for you losing money, so don't jump to conclusions.

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Mercedes-Benz Cars at the 2019 New York International Auto Show: Stunning appearance with three world premieres

17.

April 2019

New York

New York. Following the successful “eve” event the inventor of the car presented three further world premieres on the first press day of the NYIAS 2019: on display for the first time in the Big Apple were the new Mercedes-Benz GLS, the Mercedes-Benz GLC Coupé and the EQC Edition 1886 (combined electric energy consumption: 20.8 – 19.7 kWh/100 km; combined CO2 emissions: 0 g/km)[i].
The world's public was given its first glimpse of the new GLS – the largest and most luxurious SUV from Mercedes-Benz. The S-Class of SUVs offers more of everything: more space, more comfort, more luxury. The effortlessly superior presence of its exterior is down to its imposing dimensions which have increased yet further. The E-ACTIVE BODY CONTROL active suspension on 48-volt basis offers outstanding suspension comfort, agile handling and a high degree of off-road capability. The GLS has the latest generation of Mercedes-Benz driving assistance systems giving cooperative support to drivers. The new 4MATIC ensures great agility on the road and strong performance off the beaten track. The new GLS has impressive aerodynamics in its segment, with a cd figure of 0.32.
“The new GLS offers outstanding comfort and high performance both on the road and in off-road terrain. And alongside the increased amount of space it also has our intuitive infotainment system MBUX”, says Britta Seeger, Member of the Board of Management of Daimler AG, responsible for Mercedes-Benz Cars Sales. “In 2018 more than 820,000 units of the SUVs were sold, making them our strongest segment worldwide. A major proportion was sold in the USA – reaching a new record level with over 165,000 units sold in 2018. Due to the significance of this market our focus continues to be on building the best SUVs – be they electric, as a hybrid or with conventional engines.”
Expressive sports coupé with innovative technology
The revised Mercedes-Benz GLC Coupé celebrated its debut. The next generation of the successful model skilfully and intricately combines the sportiness of a coupé with the functionality of an SUV. The result is a vehicle for individualists who attach maximum importance to extraordinary looks, the greatest possible freedom and pioneering technology. Innovative technologies, intelligent driving assistance systems and a new engine generation make the coupé a paragon of sportiness, safety and efficiency. It is characterised by its dynamic appearance and elegant lines. Its coupé character shines through in the squat silhouette with the dropping roof line and rounded rear window.
“The GLC Coupé blends the performance of an SUV, the emotive appeal of a coupé and the unmistakeable Mercedes-Benz style in an intelligent overall package”, says Dietmar Exler, President & CEO of Mercedes-Benz USA.
Edition model with extensive optional extras
A further highlight at this year's New York International Auto Show was the world premiere of the Mercedes-Benz EQC Edition 1886. The name recalls the invention of the first car and underlines the pioneering spirit of the brand with the star. The Edition 1886 of the battery-electric crossover SUV demonstrates that the idea of mobility of the future extends way beyond vehicles themselves. This is why it combines extensive optional extras such as exclusive design elements with customer-friendly services connected with all aspects of electric mobility.
“The EQC is the pioneer of our future Mercedes-Benz EQ portfolio”, said Britta Seeger. “The EQC Edition 1886 not only stands for progressive design, exciting driving dynamics and a range more than suitable to daily needs, it also stands for intelligent additional services that anticipate and fulfil the driver's needs. The clear objective here is long-term carefree use of the vehicle.”
The recording of the press conference and the Media Special on the NYIAS 2019 including all press materials, images and films on the new products and features can be found at https://media.mercedes-benz.com/NYIAS2019

[i] Electric energy consumption and range have been determined on the basis of Regulation (EC) No. 692/2008. Electric energy consumption and range depend on the vehicle configuration.

Press Contact

Katja Bott

Head of Global Communications Mercedes-Benz Cars

katja.bott@daimler.com

Tel: +49 711 17 75841

Fax: –

Koert Groeneveld

Head of International Product & Technology Communications

koert.groeneveld@daimler.com

Tel: +49 711 17-92311

Fax: +49 711 17-94365

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