It’s not a good time for experts and futurists in Formula 1. At the third-to-last race of the season this Saturday (local time, 5 a.m. CET in the F.A.Z. live ticker for Formula 1 and on Sky), Lando Norris will start from pole position; he could be another step closer to the world title. But if you ask how the 2026 season could go, you won’t get an exhaustive answer. And if you do, it’s a good idea. Big rule changes always raise a lot of question marks, but this time the dimension is completely different. In the coming year, the clocks for cars, drives, fuel and tires will be set to zero. This has never happened on this scale in the history of Formula 1. The aerodynamics are reduced to a level that is between the cars of 2021 and 2025. The subfloor is not completely flat like it was four years ago, but it is also no longer as three-dimensional as it is today. The cars will be ten centimeters narrower and 20 centimeters shorter than their predecessors and may weigh 30 kilograms less. Pirelli supplies narrower tires. This means that practically nothing can be adopted from the 2025 cars. The combustion engines are similar in architecture to the current 1.6 liter V6 turbos, but they will be fed with sustainable fuels in 2026. And there is a significantly smaller amount of it available. The fuel from the laboratory is completely new territory for all oil companies and is a differentiating feature. This makes Aramco, Petronas, Shell, Exxon Mobil and BP Castrol just as players as Honda, Mercedes, Ferrari, RB/Ford and Audi. The overtaking aid is no longer available. In addition, there is a different way of racing. The electric drive provides 350 kilowatts of power, three times as much as today. This makes energy management a crucial factor. “The cars will be in different places at different times with different amounts of energy. This can lead to overtaking maneuvers in places where overtaking has never been done before,” explains Williams team boss James Vowles. Unlike before, the driver will play a big role in how he deals with the energy available to him. Vowles believes that drivers also have to reinvent themselves. “Foresight and an overview are required. Anyone who uses too much energy in the wrong places too soon will be punished later.” Smart head: Adrian Neweypicture alliance / NurPhotoThe drivers are currently getting to know this new world in the simulator. We already know that much. Every joule of energy is precious. Also with the combustion engine. Next year it will have to make do with a third less fuel than it currently does. Around 30 kilograms are used in the race just to charge the battery at partial load. Recuperation on the brakes alone is no longer sufficient for the high energy requirements. An additional problem turned out to be that the specifications for the drive were formulated too ambitiously. The International Automobile Federation FIA only realized afterwards that the high proportion of electric vehicles could not be easily managed in practice. The chassis designers complained that they had to pay for the errors in the drive. Just one example: Next year, the wings will be allowed to be flattened at the front and rear on all straights in order to reduce air resistance when charging. DRS is no longer an overtaking aid. The teams have prepared for the 2026 season with varying degrees of intensity. Alpine spent 90 percent of the wind tunnel time on the 2026 model. The price is the last place in 2025. Williams was content with two development stages for the current FW47 and switched everything to 2026 from April. McLaren, Mercedes and Ferrari have been in 2026 mode since June. Red Bull developed until September to give Max Verstappen a winning car. This was already the case in 2021 and they still became world champions in 2022. Normally, depending on their position in the field, the teams set themselves the goal of being five to ten percent better than the old level for the following year. But this time there is no reference value. The FIA has repeatedly improved its vehicle model when developing the rules. The latest version is called “Fangio V12”. If it were a real car, the lap times would increase by five seconds. It is rumored that the teams are already beating this benchmark by four to six seconds with their 2026 models. But who is how far along remains a guessing game. “That’s all very vague too.” Audi’s Formula 1 boss Mattia Binotto admits that he has no clues as to where his own team stands in comparison to the competition: “We only hear rumors from the competition about the horsepower numbers of the combustion engine, but we don’t know how resilient they are. Then a few statements are floating around about how much better individual cars are supposed to be than the FIA’s current Fangio V12 model. That’s all very vague too.”Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff claims to have heard that the combustion engine from Red Bull Powertrains, financed by Ford, should deliver 429 kilowatts on the test bench. “If that’s true, then we wouldn’t be there yet.” Others attribute exactly this number to the Mercedes engine.More on the subject It is reflexively assumed that Aston Martin will have the best car because star designer Adrian Newey has pretty regularly pulled the best concept out of the hat when new regulations are introduced. That Aramco supplies the most energy-rich fuel because the Saudi manufacturer got involved with e-fuels early on and is pumping more money into development than any competitor. And that Mercedes will have the best engine because it was the same with the last major rule reform. Many fear that there will be big differences in the balance of power again in the first year of the new rules. Aston Martin team boss Andy Cowell doesn’t believe that: “No one will have the best product in all disciplines. Ideally, everything will balance out.” Colleague Frédéric Vasseur from Ferrari is not so optimistic: “What if someone took a wrong turn? The budget cap makes it almost impossible to catch up quickly.” At least when it comes to the engine, the FIA has taken precautions so that the manufacturers can react quickly. Those who are behind can make improvements as early as 2026.
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