Buy Tesla shares ‘even with drama,’ Baird analyst says after factory tour

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Elon Musk, chairman and chief executive officer of Tesla Motors

Investors should still buy Tesla's stock in spite of all the “drama” surrounding the electric car maker and its management, an analyst at Baird said after touring the company's factory.

“We recently toured the Fremont factory and came away incrementally positive” about the company, analyst Ben Kallo wrote in a Monday note titled “Tesla, Inc.: Buy Even with Drama in LBC.” “Gigafactory 1 creates a significant barrier for competition and manufacturing capability should be a competitive advantage for TSLA over the long term. We believe TSLA's Gigafactory enables the company to drive down costs through an industrialization of battery pack assembly and economies of scale.”

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Kallo also reiterated his buy rating and stuck with his $411 price target, an implied upside of 56.1 percent from Friday's close of $263.24. The stock rose 3.2 percent in the premarket Monday.

Tesla off 25%

Tesla shares have been under pressure lately amid key departures from the company's management team, as well as CEO Elon Musk's erratic behavior. Tesla is down more than 25 percent over the past month and has dropped 15.5 percent this year.

On Friday, Tesla announced Chief Accounting Officer Dave Morton had resigned. Morton — who had accepted the job less than a month earlier — said in a statement he left Tesla because of “the level of public attention placed on the company.” Separately, Bloomberg News reported on Friday the company's head of human resources, Gaby Toledano, is also leaving the company. These two departures pushed Tesla's stock down more than 6 percent on Friday.

The departures came after video surfaced of Musk smoking marijuana and sipping whiskey during an interview with Joe Rogan, fueling worries about his recreational drug use. They also come about a month after Musk tweeted he would take the company private once the stock reached $420. Musk would later back out of taking Tesla off the public market.

But Kallo thinks Tesla's stock should still go higher. “While negative headlines around management turnover and executive leadership could be an overhang, we are labeling TSLA a 'Fresh Pick' as we believe strong fundamentals should drive shares higher,” he writes.

Kallo said improving margins and increasing Model 3 production, more information about additional factories, possible introduction of future products, and “ramp of the gigafactory and additional Tesla Energy project announcements” should propel Tesla's stock.

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‘The wheels are coming off’ Tesla and we’re watching in real time, Tesla bear says

If a company depends on one person it's not investing, it's gambling: Tesla bear Tengler
4 Hours Ago | 04:13

Tesla CEO Elon Musk's personal saga is “ugly and uncomfortable” and could scare away even loyal investors, Tesla bear Nancy Tengler told CNBC on Friday.

“Look, you've got executives leaving, he doesn't have a lot of backup, there's not a succession plan. He's super busy and exhausted, but he has time to do this podcast and smoke weed, or whatever it is, and drink whiskey. And he's missed tons of deadlines,” said Tengler, who is chief investment officer at Heartland Financial.

“The valuation reflects a company that's operating at top speed and is delivering on every level, and I just don't see it. I think there's a lot better places to be invested,” she added Friday on CNBC's “Closing Bell.”

Musk took viewers by surprise late Thursday when he smoked marijuana and drank whiskey during a 2 1/2 hour livestreamed interview with comedian Joe Rogan. The two engaged in a lengthy discussion on a number of issues including humanity, artificial intelligence, Tesla, China and Musk's social media habits.

“I think it's on balance more good than bad, but there's definitely some bad, so hopefully the good outweighs the bad,” Musk said Thursday of his Twitter use.

Following the appearance came news of the resignation of two leading Tesla officials. Tesla's chief accounting officer, Dave Morton, resigned after just a month, citing “the level of public attention placed on the company.” Tesla's chief human resources officer, Gaby Toledano, took a leave of absence in August after 15 months on the job. She announced Friday morning that she would not return to work at the company, according to Bloomberg.

Tesla shares nosedived Friday, falling 6.3 percent to $263.24 during regular trading.

Tesla bull Eric Schiffer, chairman and CEO of private equity firm Patriarch Organization, said the executive departures are likely driving the stock's decline. While Musk's behavior doesn't do him or the company any good, his antics are largely priced into the stock, he added.

“These kind of clips don't help in the short run. But I also think a big component of Musk is built into Tesla. Most of the core investors, they recognize they're dealing with this eccentric, unusual figure, and I don't see many of them bailing,” Schiffer said during the same “Closing Bell” interview as Tengler.

Oppenheimer Tesla analyst Colin Rusch attributed Tesla's decline to Musk's behavior and the possibility of a Securities and Exchange Commission investigation of Musk's August go-private tweet that alleged he had “funding secured” for the maneuver.

“The real concern weighing on the stock here is not just Elon's behavior, but Elon's behavior coupled with the potential of an SEC investigation,” Rusch said on CNBC's “Power Lunch.” “And certainly when you see two [officials] leaving in the space of a couple months, that's not a great signal out to the market.”

Rusch said now is the time for the Tesla board to step in and build up the company's leadership team, adding that the board needs to “bring in additional expertise and voices to help this company execute and have a public face to investors that they can trust.”

The board has “not proven they can handle Elon when he's moving towards the downside of his behavior patterns. This is the point where they prove their worth to the company. It's now or never, in my view,” Rusch said.

He said whether Musk is still fit to lead is a “major question.”

For her part, Tengler didn't discount what Musk has done for the company but said she fears his deleterious effects on the stock.

“You start to add up the cumulative effect of all these actions, and you say: If this whole company's valuation is dependent on one person, that's not investing to me, that's gambling. So I find there's better places to be. I get the vision, I love the car. I think everything that he's done has been exceptional, but I think the wheels are coming off, and we're watching it in real time,” Tengler said.

Tesla did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment.

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Former Tesla accounting chief Dave Morton is going to Anaplan

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2:56 AM ET Tue, 8 Aug 2017 | 03:31

Tesla announced that chief accounting officer Dave Morton was leaving the company after less than a month on Friday. Now CNBC has learned from several people familiar that Morton is becoming chief financial officer at Anaplan, a business software company that wants to go public.

An e-mail went out on Thursday informing insiders and investors about the hire, and one of the people who read it wondered if Dave Morton was a different person with the same name as the Tesla executive. Morton had only begun work as Tesla's chief accounting officer in August.

Anaplan, valued at $1.4 billion, is backed by investors including Premji Invest, Salesforce Ventures, Shasta Ventures and Baillie Gifford. The company has raised $300 million in venture funding.

Before his stint working for Elon Musk, Morton also served as CFO of Seagate Technology, where he oversaw a restructuring initiative that saved the company half a billion dollars, according to Morton's online resume.

Morton did not reply to requests for comment. CNBC earlier reported that Morton left Tesla because executives there, including CEO and chairman Elon Musk, were not carefully considering or prepared to take his advice.

Anaplan declined to comment.


Ari Levy
contributed reporting.